Personally I belive there is an over fixation here on catching the absolute bottom of things. You will be buying a home, a place to live and enjoy not a financial instrument. PS is on the right track with her metrics but I dont believe any of you will have to be that scientific about a market that is so heavily based on emotion. In the next few years there should be a time to buy when it just plain makes sense to do so unlike today. It may not be the absolute bottom but it will be within driving distance of it. When prices have settled at a point that seems reasonable for a while, go out, find a home you love and buy it. Dont worry about making money on it, worry about whether you love it and can afford it with conservative financing. Then get on with the business of enjoying life. In the long run we are all dead.