This is a good thread… I like it when threads run good like this…

My statement was indeed with respect to resales as well and was attributed to both offers from clients of mine for homes, closings I have made for a few clients on the buyers side, showings I have had on two listings in particular, and other conversations with some other agents. The former I take at face value believe me but I will be honest and say that yes there has been an increase in activity. I am not telling anyone to buy, just telling you what I have seen.

Another item is really a fundamental lack of quality listings. Even in the desireable areas the available homes are either not of great quality for the price (aka sellers in serious denial) or those that are, seem to get alot of attention.

Also as sdr said this commentary is nothing but a snapshot of the feel of things over the past few weeks. As we all know it can change quickly and by no means represents a dynamic change in the secular nature of the cycle.

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I do believe that in order to get another chunk downward we still need an external catalyst such as a radical move up in interest rates or unemployment. Without either of these I think we will tread water slowly downward with deviations provided by distress that will help lower overall medians… (hopefully)

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LAR I feel that we are indeed going to nationalize the lending industry or create some monstrosity that will be like the FHA on steroids.

Let’s be honest here, we already have essentially done that at the secondary level. However I do believe that the government wants to reduce the exposure of the two former GSEs from 5 to like 2 trillion. How the HELL will that happen?

I guess what I am saying is that I feel that the government cannot FORCE sellers to reduce the asking price BUT the government can sure the HELL provide credit for people if the free market will not. Alternately the government can grease the free market in the form of insuring the loans in one way or another.

You kind of see what I am saying?

As sdr said, 2 years ago we were all in agreement of an oncoming or existing depreciation cycle. We all bantered around different timeframes and amounts but there were differing opinions on how involved the government would get. I think it is become very clear that the government is going to go all in with respect to this battle.

I am so very happy that they let Lehman go down the tubes. However I think the government has and will take steps to keep liquidity available for potential homebuyers. As we have all agreed, this is not a liquidity crisis, it is a SOLVENCY crisis right?

Sorry for rambling… again, this is no endorsement to buy, nor am I calling for any bottom here. Yet, I am very uneasy about how far down the road our federal government will go?