Off-topic: Once again I would suggest that now would be a good time to retreat to our respective corners and not come out unless we have something relevant to the topic of the thread. I don’t care if SDRealtor is a 14-year old computer hacker from the Ukraine – it is the material that’s important, not the individual.

On-Topic: The UCLA Anderson Forecast has a pretty good track record and because I think the past is relevant to the future I would not dismiss their views out of hand even if I do disagree with some of the things they say. I mostly agree with SDRealtor’s comments about emotion being one of the fundamentals in the RESIDENTIAL market, although I don’t think it applies in most of the non-res markets. Residential properties fulfil emotional needs as well as functional needs, so any buy-sell decision will involve a certain amount of emotion. I think market psychology fits into that category, too.

I’ve made the mistake in the past of expecting the residential markets to behave rationally and I’ve had the experience of having to eat crow for that mistake. I hope to learn from my mistakes so I’m trying hard to not make that one again, and I recommend everyone else do the same. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking it’s solely about dollars and cents with most of these buyers because that would be giving them way too much credit. The herd instinct is alive and well in the markets and it would be wise to never lose sight of that.