I thought that you made excellent points. Historical data is very important when trying to predict the future. However, ignoring new trends (IO financing, etc) that could have a significant impact on future events does not make sense. It does seem very possible that the rash of irresponsible lending is going to have the same effect on many homeowners as losing their job. It all comes down to whether people have enough money to cover their mortgage. It isn’t the cause that important, it the effect that is key.