No one can time an event. Never trust a financial advisor who claims they can. You can know what will happen with a great deal of certainty, but not When. I think Talbott took that strong stand because he was either overconfident, or he wanted to sell more books. If he would have said, “Sell Sometime, I just don’t know when, but it will be sometime eventually”, his title wouldn’t be as catchy. Nonetheless, just because his timing is off, doesn’t mean I don’t buy his premise.

The important thing I look at: does this guy’s argument make sense? Can what he predicts come to pass?

I agree with you that economists should admit that they don’t know when an event will come to pass.