In a falling market, powayseller and I are better off expecting a 40-60% decline EVEN IF IT DOESN’T HAPPEN.

With our expectations, we won’t be ‘catching a falling knife’ at the 15-20% correction level if the market continues down.

If we are wrong and the market only corrects 15-20%, the signs of a bottom will become obvious over the 6 – 18 months following that bottom.

So we miss 6 – 18 months of appreciation before buying. How much appreciation are we going to miss in the first 6 to 18 months coming off a significant correction? (not much – look at previous downturns – they aren’t ‘V’ shaped bottoms)

And, as powayseller points out, this correction has barely started and prices are down 5% (quoting powayseller) and 8.8% (quoting Will Careless) already. I think the bottom is a long way down from here – not just another 7-10%.

Summary of current market: record number (or close to) of listings available, rising interest rates, LOTS of media attention given to real estate market softness / decline, out of spring and into slow season for sales, hugely over-build condo market with additional units still be built, etc.

Not my idea of a market that is within 7-10% of a bottom but I’ve been wrong before.