I believe that if you are just entering the SFR market in a master planned community anywhere from Oceanside to Chula Vista, market you are probably the “greater fool”.

Builders are much more in tune with the markets these days and you might actually see some of the later phases of some masterplans be held up until the resale market stabilizes. Regional builders (and equity players and lenders) will allocate their capital to other markets for the time being.

I am NOT a proponent of Condo Conversions. Anyone who thinks that a 40 year old apartment/converted condo is a substitute for new construction will have trouble finding a buyer when they decide to sell. I see these properties falling in price until investors can make them pencil as rental units again. You will see many of the “condos” re-entereing the market as rentals in the near future.

I believe that the extreme rise in construction costs has flushed out all of the speculative building in the downtown market and Mission Valley. You may actually see some of the residential projects be re-entitled for commercial/office.

I KNOW that if we get a correction of more than 15%-20%, there are huge amounts of capital waiting on the sidelines who will be lining up to buy SFR land. They will take positions because they know that long term, it is a good investment. Also, they will need to prop up the value of their current investments. The SFA attached projects have a little further to fall.

If we get corrections of 50% (as some have openly hoped for on this site), I would classify that as Economic Armegeddon. The ripple effects would touch everyone.

Finally, REALTORS are a big part of the problem with their pump and dump tactics. We can all only hope that they are the first to go away.