- This topic has 21 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 7 months ago by
flyer.
-
AuthorPosts
-
May 11, 2022 at 9:29 AM #23189May 11, 2022 at 3:05 PM #825496
sdrealtor
ParticipantId take this all with a grain of salt because quite often these things represent a change in the mix rather than an increase in value of of each housing unit by said amount.
Case in point. Three years ago I sold a place in the heart of North Park for around $425. Today it would sell for at most $650K which is about 50% in 3 years rather than the reported 83% in 2 years.
Another case in point is the 92010 market which reported at 69% gain in 2 years. Until the last decade, most of the housing stock was from the 80’s with just a little from early 2000’s. Until the last 2-3 years most sales were the older housing stock. Between 2012 and 2015 The Foothills went in bringing bigger and newer homes that didnt exist there. Then between 2017/2019 high end homes hit 92010 in Robertson Ranch. Its only been the last couple years that these homes starting hitting the market en masse especially the RR which could go into the 3M range for the right house now.
So part is appreciation but a lot can be a change of mix also
May 11, 2022 at 4:46 PM #825501gzz
ParticipantI doubt there was especially significant compositional changes from Feb 2020 to Feb 2022 in most SD zip codes.
A bigger issue perhaps would be small sample size, especially in the smaller zips.
Another issue is that some areas have major flipper renovations between sales while they are rare in others. This effect is largest in hot areas with older stock like Claremont, and less significant in new areas and the poshest areas where relatively few homes are in poor shape and extremely dated. So if 20% of Claremont homes have a 50k flip renovation and the average price is 1M, that means the zip’s appreciation is overstated by about 1%. Not a huge amount in this market, but 1% a year also does add up.
May 11, 2022 at 5:39 PM #825502XBoxBoy
Participant[quote=gzz] This effect is largest in hot areas with older stock like Claremont, and less significant in new areas and the poshest areas where relatively few homes are in poor shape and extremely dated. [/quote]
This doesn’t match what I see in La Jolla. There are a surprising number of homes in poor shape that are quite dated. There are a lot of flips in LJ. Although these flips tend to be tear down to the studs and build something significantly bigger.
May 11, 2022 at 5:42 PM #825503ParticipantAll good points too and examples of why these published stats are to be taken with a grain of salt. To really understand one needs to look at like for like sales.
Like this
In first 4 months of 2020 there were 3 sales of 2/2 900 sq ft model in the Plaza on Diamond St in PB. They were 470K, 495K and 495K.
This year those same months there is one sale at 615K. It was listed at 640K and sat on market for 3 months so price was fully vetted by market. I know I could find plenty of examples just like that all over PB nowhere close to 92% increase. PB is somewhere that has had lots of beach flips and teardown new builds
I do this for a living and follow things closely. No matter what anyone chooses to write about the highest appreciation I have seen is along the North County Coast and in RB/4S area where its also easiest to prove with tract homes that sell like for like.
Or if you want to choose a condo there’s one about to close in La Costa near a family member. Two years ago similar unit sold for 430. Six months ago 520K. Now 750K. Thats 75% in 2 years and 45% in 6 months. Like for like
May 11, 2022 at 5:44 PM #825504ParticipantOn other thing that could skew in beach areas is for decades the prime homes have been held and sales rare. In the last year I have seen more spectacular pieces of beach properties sold along the entire coast of SD County. Before we hit these price levels those homes rarely if ever came up but now I see them regularly. Thats a compositional change too
May 11, 2022 at 5:55 PM #825505ParticipantMay 11, 2022 at 7:27 PM #825508ParticipantYup awful inaccurate data. Has median in my zip was at 1.125m two years ago and 1.66m now. Two years ago my house was pretty much that median priced home at around 1.125m. Today it’s $2m plus not anywhere close to 1.66m. That’s like for like.
May 13, 2022 at 11:02 AM #825566
svelteParticipantI sniffed around Zillow today.
A 20-30 yo 1900 SF home in San Marcos sold for $1.1M this month. Thinking it was an anomaly, I looked over other recent sales. Nope, not an anomaly.
Prices are absolutely insane. San Marcos is where normal middle-class folks can buy. Or at least *could* buy.
This can’t continue.
Either that or we are seeing some sort of seismic change in an extremely short time period.
Personally, I don’t think its healthy. It feels like we are well on our way to becoming the new silicon valley, given prices like these.
I’d rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.
May 13, 2022 at 11:18 AM #825567ParticipantAgree with every bit of that
May 13, 2022 at 11:29 AM #825569an
Participant[quote=svelte]I sniffed around Zillow today.
A 20-30 yo 1900 SF home in San Marcos sold for $1.1M this month. Thinking it was an anomaly, I looked over other recent sales. Nope, not an anomaly.
Prices are absolutely insane. San Marcos is where normal middle-class folks can buy. Or at least *could* buy.
This can’t continue.
Either that or we are seeing some sort of seismic change in an extremely short time period.
Personally, I don’t think its healthy. It feels like we are well on our way to becoming the new silicon valley, given prices like these.
I’d rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.[/quote]
I agree with everything except for:
[quote=svelte]
I’d rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.[/quote]
I like where we’re heading and don’t mind just being the next Silion Valley. Maybe BioTech Valley?May 13, 2022 at 11:36 AM #825570svelteParticipant[quote=an]
I agree with everything except for:
[quote=svelte]
I’d rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.[/quote]
I like where we’re heading and don’t mind just being the next Silion Valley. Maybe BioTech Valley?[/quote]BioTech Valley is probably more accurate.
I have read that biotech expansion is pushing computer tech north to RB and Carlsbad.
So maybe both?
May 13, 2022 at 4:29 PM #825574Participant[quote=svelte][quote=an]
I agree with everything except for:
[quote=svelte]
I’d rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.[/quote]
I like where we’re heading and don’t mind just being the next Silion Valley. Maybe BioTech Valley?[/quote]BioTech Valley is probably more accurate.
I have read that biotech expansion is pushing computer tech north to RB and Carlsbad.
So maybe both?[/quote]
Makes a lot of sense. Tech can go anywhere and there is lots of nice housing and good schools up this way. Life sciences needs lab space of which there is lots more in Golden Triangle area plus access to labs at UCSD, Salk, teaching hospitals etc. I think our future is more tied to life sciences than tech.
May 13, 2022 at 6:00 PM #825577Participant“Personally, I don’t think its healthy.”
Get a rental property, you’ll feel much better.
“ go back to being sleepy San Diego”
Move to sleepy Alpine, Spring Valley, or Julian, and if you need a little urban or beach escape, come on over to OB where it mostly still looks like the 1970s, even if property values are 20 times higher.
May 13, 2022 at 6:11 PM #825579ParticipantAnd getting harrassed by homeless and van lifers is part of daily life. Or come up the coast and enjoy pristine uncrowded, undeveloped beaches owned and preserved by the state
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.