My thesis also puts bottom prices near $275k. Mine is based on rental prices. The average 3bd/2ba in Clairemont rents for $2000/month. I believe that when when housing prices near $275k, and the 30yr fixed payment + taxes nears $2000, people like myself will be purchasing houses just to rent them out because they are operating at a break even point.

Myself, I’m going to do some quick upgrades and put the house back on the market @ $360k and see what happens! There will be alot more homes selling for $300k this year.