[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=gzz]
I am trying to think of a single bearish factor here, but I am at a loss. [/quote]

Valuations!

Pretty good list overall though. And the valuation thing is offset to a good degree by low rates. (On that note, though… if record low rates figure into your one year forecast, that implies that rates still have to be here next year).

Anyway, seems like a reasonable overview… I just had to bite on the one bearish factor… ;-)[/quote]

well mathematically rates can’t really get much lower than they currently are, so if you accept the reality that the low rates of ZIRP and it’s side effects are the singular reason for the current asset bubble, stands to reason that upside is limited.

Other than that, sure dump all of your savings into stocks and real estate now, no better time to buy than when prices are historically high. That is certainly what the Fed wants you to do, that is their explicit policy.

Seems like the last couple of years 3/4 of whatever upside comes in the spring. I suppose if the economy is still doing well Jan 2017 then you might get a 8% pop. From the economic cycles were sort of due for a recession soon, but even if that occurs in the next year maybe it won’t be felt in San Diego until later.

Let’s hope livinincali is right and we get the recession we’re overdue for. And how!

This being said: if you’re going to put money into property, why not put it into a market that has a more favorable buy/rent ratio than San Diego? Somewhere that still has fucklosers aka foreclosures.

[quote=spdrun] Let’s hope livinincali is right and we get the recession we’re overdue for. And how!
[/quote]

What makes you think a recession should happen like clock work.

We are in a new normal. Maybe slower growth gives use double the period of continued growth.
Everything that tradional folks said about the deficit, the stimulus, interest rates, dollar value… since 2008 has be disproven. They have been wrong for nearly a decade now.

[quote=spdrun]
This being said: if you’re going to put money into property, why not put it into a market that has a more favorable buy/rent ratio than San Diego? Somewhere that still has fucklosers aka foreclosures.[/quote]

Not too many of those places left. Plus they are far away from San Diego.

[quote=spdrun]Um, most of the country has a more favorable buy/rent ratio and cheaper housing than San Diego. Average home price in the US is $188,000, whereas that’s low-end in San Diego.[/quote]

Yes. I meant foreclosure deals are getting rarer.

But if you live in SD, riverside or Las Vegas, maybe AZ are the farthest you could go. Unless you want to trust property manager all the time.

I was in lake Elsinore yesterday. Not cheap anymore. The inland empire has appreciated very nicely already.

Looking at sheriff’s sales near where I grew up in NJ, there are 5x as many properties selling as there were two years ago. A lot of them go back to the bank for $100. Future REOs!!! YAY!

And Mel “The Skell” Watt’s plan to write down loans only covers about 6,000 of the 240,000+ underwater loans in NJ. Beautiful.

NV, FL, NY, PA, and MD are also “good” states. LOL.

As far as managing long-distance, you don’t need a property manager for a condo further away, if you’re willing to go for a week when a tenant moves out, do some work, and get it rented.

Picking your tenants carefully so they’re reasonably self-sufficient and reliable. Best tenants are self-employed and grad students. People who can be very reliable, but who other landlords might be hesitant to rent to. They know they’ll have a harder time finding a different place, so they remain quiet as church mice, pay like good little tenants, and count themselves lucky not to be under a bridge.