If you are currently living in South Bay (SD County?), I don’t understand why you can’t walk in the neighborhood without your spouse present. Plenty of people do, including walking their dogs … even at night and also while pregnant! Maybe I misunderstood and you can but you feel you will have to vacate soon due to the ill health and possibly imminent death of the owner. Why don’t you remind your landlords that their property tax will be very low (likely just $100’s per yr) if they hang onto the property and rent it to you for a few more years and that they will lose this low assessment forever if they sell it? Ask them for a 5-year lease. That is what renters of single family homes in LA County are successfully doing … and getting … right and left!

The lot and home you are looking for DOES exist in 91911 and 91910 in South County SD. Unfortunately, I don’t see you finding it in South County SD for =<$400K .... UNLESS it is a heavier fixer than you are capable of DIYing (rotted subfloor; needs jacked up on a corner; heavy dry rot; eaves, roof and underlayment need replacing, etc) OR it is located in NC (91950, both city and unincorporated). I am a woman who would feel safe walking alone or with my dog on most NC streets and NC is only 5-6 miles from Lindbergh Field! harvey mentioned Temecula but that is 72-75 miles from where you currently reside and it may not be feasible for your family to consider (way too far from airports, etc). I would suggest you also consider El Cajon (92020/92021), Santee or Lakeside for the same type of house/lot you can find in National City and Chula Vista in your price range. However it would tend to be slightly newer (mid/late '60's as opposed to '40's thru early '60's in South County) and slightly larger (1400-1500 sf as opposed to 1100-1200 sf in South County). El Cajon and Lakeside have the lot size you are looking for. Santee may have a few larger lots BUT they would likely surround a county compound which houses the Las Colinas Women's Detention Facility among other ugly behemoth county agencies. It's isn't very pretty around there and it is very warm because it is surrounded on nearly 3 sides by hills which tend to block low-lying pollution into this micro area. In addition, the area is poorly zoned (industrial/comm'l mixed with residential). Most of the other areas of Santee are going to have HOAs and even MR. If you can go as high as $435-$460K, I think you could find something you could work with (over a period of months/years after moving in) in SD South County and you could stay in your cooler (and much more convenient) general area.

I don’t believe in “bubbles” and “echo bubbles.” It’s not ever going to get any cheaper to buy a home in SD County, ESPecially an SFR which is well-located.

Our last RE “bubble” (of 2004 thru 2007) was artificially caused by lax lending, which isn’t going to ever happen like that again.

Anyone who needs a house for their family and doesn’t have a reasonable locked-in rental deal for the duration and is qualified to buy is a fool for waiting for another crash to do so. Their kids will likely be grown and out of the house and it will never happen.

First of all, there is no need to fear. You seem like a person with good financial discipline so that will make your financial outlook much better than the general public. The echo bubble is frustrating, yes. But don’t compare it with 4 years ago, because should’ve/could’ve is irrelevant. And you weren’t in a position to buy 4 years ago anyway.

Second, I actually think $250K down for a $400K house is a bad idea…no matter how low you want the payment to be. The real risk for home purchasing is liquidity that many people drained out their savings with the down payment that makes them less well prepared for the future uncertainty. I wouldn’t invest bulk of your saving on an investment vehicle that only carries less than 3.5% return (not counting mortgage interest deduction). I would take conventional 80% loan and save the money for emergency fund and future investment opportunity (although there are depressingly few such opportunities right now)

Third, the last few years have been very challenging to the long-term value based investment. Don’t lose hope just yet. The basic driver for long-term value working historically has been the excessive volatility of asset prices relative to their underlying fundamental cash flows, and recent history does not show any evidence of that changing. Every bubble falls back to trend line and there has been no exception. Remember that you are paid to rent if your rents provides better cashflow compared to owning. Historically, the cashflow from real estate investment isn’t necessarily better than any other investment vehicle (e.g. index fund), it sounds better to a lot of people only because they leveraged with home purchase.

Lastly, Temecula is a wonderful city. Check it out sometime.

Hi jfel – Homes are definitely expensive but they really don’t compare to the mid-2000s bubble, and I don’t think there is anywhere near the risk of buying as there was back then.

There’s more in this article (from last year but the situation hasn’t changed a whole lot since then)…

Shambling Towards Affordability, Mid-Year 2015

… including the state of valuations and what those valuations imply about the future. Hopefully something in there of interest to you. You mentioned that some of the articles are too nerdy for you but if you have specific questions, post them here and I can try to clarify.

Rich

My 2 cents
I would not say that a bubble/bust would not occur again in SD, but I don’t see enough new homes going up currently to match household formation so IMO we are likely to remain in a housing squeeze for a few more years at least (maybe 5).

Also your savings purchasing power is likely to be eaten away by inflation over that period as well.

Bottom line:
We may have another housing bust someday but it is very (VERY) unlikely to come anywhere close to the bust in 2009-11.

If you can find something (even in Temecula etc…) buy it.

The above assumes the whole world economy does not get sucked into a black hole in the next few years.

Anyway IMO

[quote=La Jolla Renter]We really need more data. How old are you and your husband? Will his income go up or is he at the top of his earning potential? How long do you plan to be a stay at home mom? Will you earn an income down the road? Any home improvement skills or DIYers? How important are the schools your kids go to? Do you demand 9 or 10 out of 10 on the rating scale? What are some of your top choice neighborhoods?

I’m probably of the camp that leans toward putting minimal down and invest the rest.

Great ideas to “work” the little old lady on a deal to buy or stay. But if that angle doesn’t work, you need to compare rent vs buy with your new market rent. I think the buy camp wins out.[/quote]All good questions, LJR. Especially asking about the OP’s own income potential down the road. I would add that a buyer looking for a ~$400K (or less) SFR in SD County (and doesn’t want MR) would be hard pressed to be able to buy in the attendance area of a public school rated a “9.” And not sure if SD County has any public schools rated a “10.” Please correct me if you know of any. If the OP was willing to buy a condo (w/HOA dues & even MR) perhaps they could find something in the attendance area of a public school rated a “9.” I’m thinking in Otay Ranch (CV 91914/91915).

Buyers in the OP’s price range really can’t make those kinds of “demands” in SD County (or even those in LA/Orange Counties) unless they’re willing to buy a condo. The good news is, elementary schools rated an “8” are still very good schools. And even those which are rated a “7” if enough of the parents are involved and it has been “improving” over the last few years.

So to paraphrase, you’ve already found one needle in a haystack and you are now looking for a second. Good luck jfel! I don’t mean that sarcastically.

Does safety trump school quality? What’s your maximum commute time, because where I grew up in 92082 was very safe, though rural. I wouldn’t have called the schools awesome but they weren’t bad.
Josh