I think the argument to buy falls apart because of these two reasons:
1) Your breakeven/make a little money scenario hinges on it recovering 10% in the next 5 years. I think the absolute most optimistic case is that the condo you buy today remains flat in value for the next 5 years, in which case you were better off renting. I think the realistic scenario is that the value continues to drop for a couple years and then remains flat in value for several years. There is absolutely nothing putting pressure upward on prices, especially in condos right now, and there is so much pushing it down for so many years to come.
2) The place you could buy for 200k is nowhere near as nice as the place you can rent for the same monthly cost.
