- This topic has 42 replies, 17 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 10 months ago by
(former)FormerSanDiegan.
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December 14, 2011 at 10:53 PM #19356December 14, 2011 at 10:53 PM #734680
(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant… or wrong.
December 15, 2011 at 12:11 AM #734683sdduuuude
ParticipantDecember 15, 2011 at 1:01 AM #734685CA renter
Participant[quote=sdduuuude]Uh huh.
http://piggington.com/welcome_to_the_bottom
O.o[/quote]
LOL! 🙂
Which is it, FSD? 2009 or 2011?
Personally, my money is on December 2012.
December 15, 2011 at 7:34 AM #734686sdrealtor
ParticipantMy money is on December 2012 also same as it was when I predicted that nearly 6 years ago.
December 15, 2011 at 8:42 AM #734688Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=sdduuuude]Uh huh.
http://piggington.com/welcome_to_the_bottom
O.o[/quote]
LOL! 🙂
Which is it, FSD? 2009 or 2011?
Personally, my money is on December 2012.[/quote]
I was correct (so far) on the bottom call. April 17, 2009 at 9:37 pm. is still the bottom in terms of nominal price.
That is different than making a call to buy real estate.
December 15, 2011 at 8:46 AM #734689ParticipantThe Buy call also takes into account:
1. Carrying costs
2. Expected return (including rents)
3. Relative return to alternatives
4. Risk/reward ratioThe nominal price bottom in 2009 occured when we were still losing jobs, rents were declining and interest rates were higher than they are now. These factors are much more favorable now heading into 2012.
December 15, 2011 at 10:24 AM #734693Participant[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=CA renter][quote=sdduuuude]Uh huh.
http://piggington.com/welcome_to_the_bottom
O.o[/quote]
LOL! 🙂
Which is it, FSD? 2009 or 2011?
Personally, my money is on December 2012.[/quote]
I was correct (so far) on the bottom call. April 17, 2009 at 9:37 pm. is still the bottom in terms of nominal price.
That is different than making a call to buy real estate.[/quote]
Seriously, that April 17 2009 call was pretty good and doesn’t mean the call to buy real estate is bad. I’m just havin’ a bit of fun. Dec. 2012 sounds right to me as well for the bottom. Possibly Dec 2013. They’ll be pretty close.
December 15, 2011 at 10:25 AM #734694SD Realtor
ParticipantSo far it looks like anyone who bought after the beginning of 2009 seems to be in decent shape if we are looking at a long term holding. I would not argue with your latest call with one exceptional wildcard.
I still believe that when interest rates run high (early 80s model) then that will spell depreciation for real estate. Consequently it will be much harder for those who need financing to obtain it so perhaps things scale. However in terms of the classic, I bought my home for $A and now I am selling it for $B if rates run up very high then B may very well be less then A. Lots of factors come into play.
December 15, 2011 at 1:24 PM #734700briansd1
Guest[quote=FormerSanDiegan]Point to this thread in 3 years to prove that I am right.[/quote]
That implies that in 3 years one who buys real estate today would feel he made a great investment.
Any advice on commercial property?
December 15, 2011 at 3:01 PM #734707Participantbriansd1 – My original post was a bit light on details, but I am looking more at residential real estate as a landlord (or for personal use).
The commercial cycle (at least in San Diego) seems to usually lag well-behind the residential cycle. But, I really haven’t a clue regarding viability of commercial/industrial property right now (or ever).
December 16, 2011 at 1:28 AM #734722Participant[quote=sdrealtor]My money is on December 2012 also same as it was when I predicted that nearly 6 years ago.[/quote]
Well…my guess (also made over six years ago) was that December 2012 would be the bottom IF we didn’t have any interventions. I said that if the Fed/govt intervened in the market, it would actually bottom later than that, possibly decades later.
Still, I think if someone buys in December 2012, they should be okay. Not that they’ll make money, but that they won’t take the kind of hit that folks who bought in the 2004-2007 timeframe did (and will). That’s obvious to everyone here, though.
December 16, 2011 at 7:37 AM #734723ParticipantIN all my fairness, my prediction was based upon my belief that option arm/toxic loans would get wiped out quickly which they did.
I beleived those with long fixed periods (10 and 30 yr fixed rate loans) would be fine but I figured on a 2nd wave from all the people that took out 5/1 ARM’s between 2004 and 2007 getting hit with resets when rates went way up which they didnt. The low rates minimized much of that and many of these folks have refied into even lower rates. So while it didnt play out exactly as I expected the timeline seems like it should be spot on IMO.
I guess it really speaks to how dynamic all the factors influencing things are.
December 16, 2011 at 9:01 AM #734724paramount
ParticipantBUY REAL ESTATE NOW
Brought to you by NAR
December 16, 2011 at 9:56 AM #734729NotCranky
ParticipantGetting the bug, here. Not sure I want to manage another rental though and I don’t have the money yet.
I like the idea some piggs have expressed about buying a rental that becomes a place for the kids to stay when they go to college.
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