The ARM on your primary residence could end up being a killer if/when the interest rates max out.

Some lenders are talking about resetting mortgages. If you can talk the mortgage holder on the condo to reset it closer to your break even point on the rental that might work.

As for how long you’ll have to hold both properties to “break even” I’m thinking it could easily be 10 years and it might be longer than that. Most people assume the next cycle will peak higher than this last one did, but there’s no real reason why it has to. I can envision a scenario where the next cycle only restores 1/4 of the losses from this current downswing. And who knows what’s going to happen with interest rates?

On the other hand, inflation and its variants are coming to town for an extended visit. That could translate into higher incomes, and if so it’s theoretically possible that we might wage-inflate our way into the prior sales prices. When considering we now compete in a more globalized economy I don’t see how. How good do you think the chances are of your income tripling over the next 10 years?

The most brazen move is to hang on to both assets, wait for the market to drop, buy another home at the bottom and then walk on both your current loans. That will put your mortgage payment at parity with the rental rates and all you will have lost will be the additional payments you’ve made between now and then. That is, depending on how the recourse/non-recourse thing works out.