don’t we have to throw inflation into the mix to figure what the future home prices ought to be? For eg, if we wanted to consider 2001 prices as reasonable(325k, as someone pointed out), don’t we have adjust it upwards by the amount of inflation (that would make it worth around 400k now)?

I would say that you do have to consider inflation, but it will not necessarily push home prices upwards. You have to consider it in relationship to household incomes. If incomes rise at a slower pace than inflation, then fewer families can afford the high priced homes. After paying for the necessities that have all been going through the roof (like health insurance, food, gas, utilities), people actually have less money to spend on housing. This should have the effect of pushing housing prices down.