Interesting article Harry. I was recently asked by someone in a private message to look for certain kind of property in my town and I was a little suprised by the trends, there is almost nothing left that isn’t pending already. Here’s some numbers for my little zip code in the IE, I’, rounding them to even numbers

current nods 600
current nots 50
current foreclosures 400 (these are those still active, dating back to september, the real number is probably lower since they don’t always clean up the data quickly)

Current mls excluding shorts or pending 150

total population about 60k

averave sales are about 150 a month

in 2008, nod/not/foreclosure numbers were double to triple current numbers

in 2008, total listings exceeded a 1,000

current prices are 15-25% higher than a year ago, time on market for market priced isn’t really measured in months, days or weeks, I’d say minutes is the current climate. In my tract, not one house is actually for sale that isnt pending or a short, in the neighboring tract there is only one and it’s priced way too high, 20-30% over market in my estimation.

So if you are a bank, and you are sitting on some empty houses (which are actually becoming rare nowadays) or you have someone who isn’t paying and isn’t going to qual for a program, just give them the boot, take a much smaller loss than you would have last year and sell it as is, in a single day and with a bidding war. I think it’s bounced off bottom but it’s also not going to bounce much more, it’s found it’s balance, 300k still gets you a really nice tract home with a 3 car and over 2000 sq ft, but it’s not going to get to 400k anytime soon so the conditions are perfect for the bank, all of the nods and the nots and the stuff they already have can get turned over as fast as they can take them back, so they should just do it, they wont even hurt prices in the process. In fact, if they get their act together right now on the backlog, they can have the bulk of it hit by spring, right when the buyers start showing up.

I’m sticking to my prediction from a while ago, the worst has passed, it’s not going to shoot up but it’s not going to fall either, flat to mild increase from here on out. At least locally, in my little world.

Interesting article Harry. I was recently asked by someone in a private message to look for certain kind of property in my town and I was a little suprised by the trends, there is almost nothing left that isn’t pending already. Here’s some numbers for my little zip code in the IE, I’, rounding them to even numbers

current nods 600
current nots 50
current foreclosures 400 (these are those still active, dating back to september, the real number is probably lower since they don’t always clean up the data quickly)

Current mls excluding shorts or pending 150

total population about 60k

averave sales are about 150 a month

in 2008, nod/not/foreclosure numbers were double to triple current numbers

in 2008, total listings exceeded a 1,000

current prices are 15-25% higher than a year ago, time on market for market priced isn’t really measured in months, days or weeks, I’d say minutes is the current climate. In my tract, not one house is actually for sale that isnt pending or a short, in the neighboring tract there is only one and it’s priced way too high, 20-30% over market in my estimation.

So if you are a bank, and you are sitting on some empty houses (which are actually becoming rare nowadays) or you have someone who isn’t paying and isn’t going to qual for a program, just give them the boot, take a much smaller loss than you would have last year and sell it as is, in a single day and with a bidding war. I think it’s bounced off bottom but it’s also not going to bounce much more, it’s found it’s balance, 300k still gets you a really nice tract home with a 3 car and over 2000 sq ft, but it’s not going to get to 400k anytime soon so the conditions are perfect for the bank, all of the nods and the nots and the stuff they already have can get turned over as fast as they can take them back, so they should just do it, they wont even hurt prices in the process. In fact, if they get their act together right now on the backlog, they can have the bulk of it hit by spring, right when the buyers start showing up.

I’m sticking to my prediction from a while ago, the worst has passed, it’s not going to shoot up but it’s not going to fall either, flat to mild increase from here on out. At least locally, in my little world.

Interesting article Harry. I was recently asked by someone in a private message to look for certain kind of property in my town and I was a little suprised by the trends, there is almost nothing left that isn’t pending already. Here’s some numbers for my little zip code in the IE, I’, rounding them to even numbers

current nods 600
current nots 50
current foreclosures 400 (these are those still active, dating back to september, the real number is probably lower since they don’t always clean up the data quickly)

Current mls excluding shorts or pending 150

total population about 60k

averave sales are about 150 a month

in 2008, nod/not/foreclosure numbers were double to triple current numbers

in 2008, total listings exceeded a 1,000

current prices are 15-25% higher than a year ago, time on market for market priced isn’t really measured in months, days or weeks, I’d say minutes is the current climate. In my tract, not one house is actually for sale that isnt pending or a short, in the neighboring tract there is only one and it’s priced way too high, 20-30% over market in my estimation.

So if you are a bank, and you are sitting on some empty houses (which are actually becoming rare nowadays) or you have someone who isn’t paying and isn’t going to qual for a program, just give them the boot, take a much smaller loss than you would have last year and sell it as is, in a single day and with a bidding war. I think it’s bounced off bottom but it’s also not going to bounce much more, it’s found it’s balance, 300k still gets you a really nice tract home with a 3 car and over 2000 sq ft, but it’s not going to get to 400k anytime soon so the conditions are perfect for the bank, all of the nods and the nots and the stuff they already have can get turned over as fast as they can take them back, so they should just do it, they wont even hurt prices in the process. In fact, if they get their act together right now on the backlog, they can have the bulk of it hit by spring, right when the buyers start showing up.

I’m sticking to my prediction from a while ago, the worst has passed, it’s not going to shoot up but it’s not going to fall either, flat to mild increase from here on out. At least locally, in my little world.

Good post tg. Since we all love #, here are the # for 92126 based on foreclosureradar.com:
current NOD: 162
current NOT: 225
REO: 67
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 85
last month sale: 49

For SFR in 92126:
current NOD: 111
current NOT: 160
REO: 28
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 50
last month sale: 27 (7 sold for under listing and 20 sold for over listing)

total population of over 70k
total households of 23k

Price have also risen about 10-15% from last year. Those are numbers, draw your own conclusion about the tsunami.

Good post tg. Since we all love #, here are the # for 92126 based on foreclosureradar.com:
current NOD: 162
current NOT: 225
REO: 67
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 85
last month sale: 49

For SFR in 92126:
current NOD: 111
current NOT: 160
REO: 28
Current actives (include FSBO) according to redfin: 50
last month sale: 27 (7 sold for under listing and 20 sold for over listing)

total population of over 70k
total households of 23k

Price have also risen about 10-15% from last year. Those are numbers, draw your own conclusion about the tsunami.

Well I concur with TG, Things have bounced off the bottom in TV for in most parts anyway, but there is little indication price will spike again soon.

I would add however that once the economy finally does start to add Job’s I think the homes TG is describing (ie.. three car over 2000 sqf) could take another leap to the 400K range based on new demand from household formation that has been put on hold
(Until the kids are finally able to find a Job that enables them to move their butt’s out of theirs parent’s house). And no I don’t expect these to buy the 400K homes but they will rent or buy something less which will enable someone else to buy the 400K home etc..

When will the economy finally start adding Job’s????

I guess that is the 64K question.

I would add that there are still a few super deals that will pop up every now and then if you look a little further out of TG’s Zip in TV.

Well I concur with TG, Things have bounced off the bottom in TV for in most parts anyway, but there is little indication price will spike again soon.

I would add however that once the economy finally does start to add Job’s I think the homes TG is describing (ie.. three car over 2000 sqf) could take another leap to the 400K range based on new demand from household formation that has been put on hold
(Until the kids are finally able to find a Job that enables them to move their butt’s out of theirs parent’s house). And no I don’t expect these to buy the 400K homes but they will rent or buy something less which will enable someone else to buy the 400K home etc..

When will the economy finally start adding Job’s????

I guess that is the 64K question.

I would add that there are still a few super deals that will pop up every now and then if you look a little further out of TG’s Zip in TV.