Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › playing with unemployment numbers
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June 18, 2009 at 12:56 PM #15906June 18, 2009 at 1:03 PM #417149
UCGal
ParticipantI’ve noticed the same thing… The revised number from the previous week almost always is revised to a larger number.
I look around at my employer, my friends’ employers… there’s not a lot of hiring going on and a lot of layoffs going on. Some of the bigger companies are doing it in trickle form, to avoid reporting it as a layoff… but a steady trickle still adds up.
June 18, 2009 at 1:03 PM #417876ParticipantI’ve noticed the same thing… The revised number from the previous week almost always is revised to a larger number.
I look around at my employer, my friends’ employers… there’s not a lot of hiring going on and a lot of layoffs going on. Some of the bigger companies are doing it in trickle form, to avoid reporting it as a layoff… but a steady trickle still adds up.
June 18, 2009 at 1:03 PM #417714ParticipantI’ve noticed the same thing… The revised number from the previous week almost always is revised to a larger number.
I look around at my employer, my friends’ employers… there’s not a lot of hiring going on and a lot of layoffs going on. Some of the bigger companies are doing it in trickle form, to avoid reporting it as a layoff… but a steady trickle still adds up.
June 18, 2009 at 1:03 PM #417649ParticipantI’ve noticed the same thing… The revised number from the previous week almost always is revised to a larger number.
I look around at my employer, my friends’ employers… there’s not a lot of hiring going on and a lot of layoffs going on. Some of the bigger companies are doing it in trickle form, to avoid reporting it as a layoff… but a steady trickle still adds up.
June 18, 2009 at 1:03 PM #417385ParticipantI’ve noticed the same thing… The revised number from the previous week almost always is revised to a larger number.
I look around at my employer, my friends’ employers… there’s not a lot of hiring going on and a lot of layoffs going on. Some of the bigger companies are doing it in trickle form, to avoid reporting it as a layoff… but a steady trickle still adds up.
June 18, 2009 at 5:54 PM #417769Arraya
ParticipantYup, the are playing the confidence game they best they can with consistently bad numbers. The underlying fundamentals and what is driving unemployment have not changed since the downturn started. Eventually, the market will have to look down again and we will get another round of panic.
This guy does a really good job of dissecting the job numbers. This is from earlier this month for May.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/may-employment-report-not-believable/20102
As before, my assumption is that these numbers are quite fuzzy, not worth the paper they are printed on, and heavily falsified to achieve narrow political and market influencing aims.
While I can certainly understand, and even find some compassion for, the desire to manipulate the data to inject some confidence and optimism into the populace and markets, I must regretfully conclude that such efforts are more damaging than helpful.
We did ourselves no favors by fibbing to ourselves during the blowing of the credit bubble, and we do ourselves no favors by repeating that behavior now. We need good and believable data. I judge that our markets would respond better in the long run to believable data, and that we actually owe it to ourselves to provide the most honest and accurate assessments of reality that we can.
June 18, 2009 at 5:54 PM #417703ParticipantYup, the are playing the confidence game they best they can with consistently bad numbers. The underlying fundamentals and what is driving unemployment have not changed since the downturn started. Eventually, the market will have to look down again and we will get another round of panic.
This guy does a really good job of dissecting the job numbers. This is from earlier this month for May.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/may-employment-report-not-believable/20102
As before, my assumption is that these numbers are quite fuzzy, not worth the paper they are printed on, and heavily falsified to achieve narrow political and market influencing aims.
While I can certainly understand, and even find some compassion for, the desire to manipulate the data to inject some confidence and optimism into the populace and markets, I must regretfully conclude that such efforts are more damaging than helpful.
We did ourselves no favors by fibbing to ourselves during the blowing of the credit bubble, and we do ourselves no favors by repeating that behavior now. We need good and believable data. I judge that our markets would respond better in the long run to believable data, and that we actually owe it to ourselves to provide the most honest and accurate assessments of reality that we can.
June 18, 2009 at 5:54 PM #417930ParticipantYup, the are playing the confidence game they best they can with consistently bad numbers. The underlying fundamentals and what is driving unemployment have not changed since the downturn started. Eventually, the market will have to look down again and we will get another round of panic.
This guy does a really good job of dissecting the job numbers. This is from earlier this month for May.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/may-employment-report-not-believable/20102
As before, my assumption is that these numbers are quite fuzzy, not worth the paper they are printed on, and heavily falsified to achieve narrow political and market influencing aims.
While I can certainly understand, and even find some compassion for, the desire to manipulate the data to inject some confidence and optimism into the populace and markets, I must regretfully conclude that such efforts are more damaging than helpful.
We did ourselves no favors by fibbing to ourselves during the blowing of the credit bubble, and we do ourselves no favors by repeating that behavior now. We need good and believable data. I judge that our markets would respond better in the long run to believable data, and that we actually owe it to ourselves to provide the most honest and accurate assessments of reality that we can.
June 18, 2009 at 5:54 PM #417438ParticipantYup, the are playing the confidence game they best they can with consistently bad numbers. The underlying fundamentals and what is driving unemployment have not changed since the downturn started. Eventually, the market will have to look down again and we will get another round of panic.
This guy does a really good job of dissecting the job numbers. This is from earlier this month for May.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/may-employment-report-not-believable/20102
As before, my assumption is that these numbers are quite fuzzy, not worth the paper they are printed on, and heavily falsified to achieve narrow political and market influencing aims.
While I can certainly understand, and even find some compassion for, the desire to manipulate the data to inject some confidence and optimism into the populace and markets, I must regretfully conclude that such efforts are more damaging than helpful.
We did ourselves no favors by fibbing to ourselves during the blowing of the credit bubble, and we do ourselves no favors by repeating that behavior now. We need good and believable data. I judge that our markets would respond better in the long run to believable data, and that we actually owe it to ourselves to provide the most honest and accurate assessments of reality that we can.
June 18, 2009 at 5:54 PM #417204ParticipantYup, the are playing the confidence game they best they can with consistently bad numbers. The underlying fundamentals and what is driving unemployment have not changed since the downturn started. Eventually, the market will have to look down again and we will get another round of panic.
This guy does a really good job of dissecting the job numbers. This is from earlier this month for May.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/may-employment-report-not-believable/20102
As before, my assumption is that these numbers are quite fuzzy, not worth the paper they are printed on, and heavily falsified to achieve narrow political and market influencing aims.
While I can certainly understand, and even find some compassion for, the desire to manipulate the data to inject some confidence and optimism into the populace and markets, I must regretfully conclude that such efforts are more damaging than helpful.
We did ourselves no favors by fibbing to ourselves during the blowing of the credit bubble, and we do ourselves no favors by repeating that behavior now. We need good and believable data. I judge that our markets would respond better in the long run to believable data, and that we actually owe it to ourselves to provide the most honest and accurate assessments of reality that we can.
June 18, 2009 at 6:23 PM #4177844plexowner
Participantand don’t forget that we need 150K new jobs per month for college grads, etc
a little fact that the analysts and reporters conveniently forget when they are spinning the numbers
June 18, 2009 at 6:23 PM #417453Participantand don’t forget that we need 150K new jobs per month for college grads, etc
a little fact that the analysts and reporters conveniently forget when they are spinning the numbers
June 18, 2009 at 6:23 PM #417718Participantand don’t forget that we need 150K new jobs per month for college grads, etc
a little fact that the analysts and reporters conveniently forget when they are spinning the numbers
June 18, 2009 at 6:23 PM #417945Participantand don’t forget that we need 150K new jobs per month for college grads, etc
a little fact that the analysts and reporters conveniently forget when they are spinning the numbers
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