I want to please remind everyone that housing is not falling because noone wants to by homes. Housing is falling because Banks DO NOT WANT TO LEND TO PEOPLE!
This crisis is a credit crisis. . . . and until we solve the CDO Swap Tsunami that is coming there will be no available capital to invest into Mortgage Backed Securities as was the early part of this dcade. I think the Chinese have already digested enough of our toxic waste debt that I doubt anyone else will buy our paper.
Until that happens lending criteria will tighten, salaries will decrease and sales will decline. On order for liquidity flow to continue housing deflation is inevitable. . .. prices have to decline.
A good friend of mine is an investment bank analyst for real estate. His comment is that we are returning to a lending model structure of the late 80s.
Prices do not go down 24% annually and then up 10% in the absence of a growing credit market.
We will see 20% decline in 2008, 14% decline in 2009, 8% decline in 2010.
This bust will bleed itself out and then by then credit markets will have stabilized and we can reinject life into the carcass known as “residential housing.”
The automotive market is a slaughter as well. This is not because housing is going down but that banks can’t make the lending profitable given prior criteria.
