Do I have to be a “saving bond trader” to think, or just to comment?
My guess based on copious amounts of reading is that the cost of debt is bottoming out right now. the FFR will go to zero and that still won’t stimulate things.
Congress will try one more major round of printing, ahem I mean inflating, to which the bond market will react very very negatively and that will be that. A negative reaction means that rates on treasuries will go up.
If in the very short term, say the next six months we have a trigger which sets off an extreme down movement in the stock market, you’ll see a lot of money flee to bonds, which will temporarily push down rates, but that won’t last if the treasury starts up the presses. Underlying the whole thesis is the idea that our govt is so borrowing dependent it will do nothing that negatively impacts its ability to borrow cheaply.
