Even with the knife still falling, I don’t think we will hit $250-$300/sf in FBR, Santaluz, other parts of RSF or CV. $400/sf is possible in these markets I suppose. Up here in the Bay Area, in the areas I am looking in, I think $600/sf is possible.
Either way, I am speculating about something with great variation. The reality in FBR today is $500+/sf for the most part. In Santaluz it is slightly more than that (which suggests Santaluz is overpriced significantly because neither the area or homes are FBR level). Cielo is running in the $450-$500/sf range, and most vulnerable to dropping further than other areas in RSF are. Meadows Del Mar is running in the $550/sf range these days. IMHO, very overpriced for what you get, great house, but tiny lot. So there is a ways to go to get to the $400/sf range. There are always some real bargains, usually fixer uppers that are not updated, which can be more frequently found in older neighborhoods and the Covenant.
Lot sizes are more difficult to compare on a $/sf basis. You can really only do so within particular areas, such as FBR, Santaluz, Meadows, Cielo etc. Those areas tend to be zoned uniformally so that lot sizes in each are similar in size. You see the most variation in lot sizes in the Covenant, which also has the largest lots on average. You see the least in Meadows Del Mar, or any other neighborhood in CV. On a per sf basis, the value of that lot depends on where it is, of course. An acre of land on the beach in Del Mar, well, I shutter to think what it must be worth. An Acre in Cielo, in one of the few lots with no view, an order of magnitude less or more.
So I don’t compare lot sizes as much as I compare areas. If I could find a 6,000sf+ house on the beach in Del Mar with no less than an acre at a price I could afford, that is where I would be. But I can’t. So for me, so far, I have ranked the areas I am looking in order of favorite and best buy as FBR South Gate, FBR North Gate, Rancho Santa Fe Farms, Rancho Valencia, the Covenant, Santaluz, Cielo, Meadows Del Mar, Fairbanks Highlands, Mendiola street area, Del Mar Mesa, Del Mar Meadows.
I think even the last place area is nice, else I would not look there. I suspect most likely I will end up somewhere up until Meadows Del Mar. The remaining areas don’t offer large enough houses and are more McMansionish, though the neighborhoods are very nice. If Fairbanks Highlands had larger and more custom homes, it would be a great option for me. I really liked that neighborhood and it was a perfect location for commuting and convenience, basically inbetween CV and RSF.
Notice I have not looked at either the Crosby or the Bridges. I don’t play golf and these areas are less geared towards families with small children than the rest of RSF.
BTW. If you want real hard data rather than my own speculation based on my limited experience looking at certain houses in certain price ranges of certain sizes in certain areas, then SD Realtor or Rustico are your guys to ask.
