I’m not going to argue with your prediction, but will provide some counter points to your reasons.
1. Fed is going to abandon dollar to save economy from recession and cut at least 1.5% more going forward (the first .50 to .75 will come this 1/30). This will lower mortgage rates even further.
If FED is so powerful that it can control asset prices and even avert recessions, then we would have never had recessions. In Japan, the CB lowered the rates to zero, did that help the RE prices there?
2. Credit tightening has reached its peak. We will never see the easy money from before but credit tightness has backed off its most extreme as reason and analysis begin to take over from panic.
Are you sure about this? Last time I checked the banks were still writing off billions of dollars of assets with no end in sight.
3. There is a lot of pent up demand . . . people renting or waiting. Like before a sense that equities is a bad place for your money will influence more $ to go towards RE (not a big influence but of some significance).
We will see what happens to that demand when the recession is official.
4. Prices have infact fallen 10-15% and the spring buying season is approaching.
5. Builders’ over building excesses have been drastically reduced and the pipeline of upcoming supply has been nearly cut off (not homes on the market now but the planning for homes to come on line in 12-18 months).
Data seems to suggest that inventory is still high with demand potentially getting weaker.
