SOme great insight to this is to check out how many home builders there were in 1989 and then again in 1995! And that down cycle was like a cub scout meeting compared to what we’re in now!!

SOme great insight to this is to check out how many home builders there were in 1989 and then again in 1995! And that down cycle was like a cub scout meeting compared to what we’re in now!!

[quote=peterb]SOme great insight to this is to check out how many home builders there were in 1989 and then again in 1995! And that down cycle was like a cub scout meeting compared to what we’re in now!![/quote]

I worked for a large home builder in the early 80’s and I built 9 spec houses in Atlanta in 1987.

You can always make money building new houses if you can get the land cheap enough and you build cheap enough houses.

An important metric to consider is not so much how resales are behaving but how the raw land values are holding up.

Anyone have any idea where to find those numbers???

John

[quote=peterb]SOme great insight to this is to check out how many home builders there were in 1989 and then again in 1995! And that down cycle was like a cub scout meeting compared to what we’re in now!![/quote]

I worked for a large home builder in the early 80’s and I built 9 spec houses in Atlanta in 1987.

You can always make money building new houses if you can get the land cheap enough and you build cheap enough houses.

An important metric to consider is not so much how resales are behaving but how the raw land values are holding up.

Anyone have any idea where to find those numbers???

John

[quote=peterb]SOme great insight to this is to check out how many home builders there were in 1989 and then again in 1995! And that down cycle was like a cub scout meeting compared to what we’re in now!![/quote]

I worked for a large home builder in the early 80’s and I built 9 spec houses in Atlanta in 1987.

You can always make money building new houses if you can get the land cheap enough and you build cheap enough houses.

An important metric to consider is not so much how resales are behaving but how the raw land values are holding up.

Anyone have any idea where to find those numbers???

John

I think that raw land is getting hit pretty hard right now. It usually does at this stage of a real estate deflation. Having said that, if one builds a house for around $150 sq/ft. That would make the construction price about $300K for 2000 sq/ft. And I think that’s a pretty cheap price to build in CA. I think Temecula homes can be bought for $300K right now that are not too old. So that would put the price of the raw land they’re on as pretty cheap. I think. And this land is far from “raw”.

I think that raw land is getting hit pretty hard right now. It usually does at this stage of a real estate deflation. Having said that, if one builds a house for around $150 sq/ft. That would make the construction price about $300K for 2000 sq/ft. And I think that’s a pretty cheap price to build in CA. I think Temecula homes can be bought for $300K right now that are not too old. So that would put the price of the raw land they’re on as pretty cheap. I think. And this land is far from “raw”.