San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

There were 2,228 NODs and 911 NOTs delivered last month. The latter is an all-time high; the former is second only to August's NOD count. Here is a long-term look at the number of monthly NODs and NOTs, adjusted for labor force growth (as a proxy for population growth, though labor force has actually grown faster than population):

Here's a different look at the foreclosure stats, using weekly data I get from a friend (the graph is current up to the end of October). The timelines are shifted to show NOTs and REOs in the pipeline.

And using that same weekly data, here are the number of REOs as a percent of the number of NOTs 16 weeks prior, as a rough approximation of how many NOTs are ending up as foreclosed homes for sale on the open market. Since 16 weeks represents the minimum delay, and many homes stay in default for longer than the minimum, this graph likely understates the actual percentage of NODs that will become REOs at some point.

Due to legal minimum delays between the stages of foreclosure, an October NOD won't hit the market as an REO, assuming it turns into one, until about March 2008 at the earliest. Given the number of NODs of late and the rate at which they are turning into REOs, we can expect a serious increase in the supply of must-sell inventory in early 2008.