March 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Before we begin, let me get a couple instances of pimping out of the way.

First, I will be on "These Days" on NPR this coming Monday, April 13, at 9:00AM.

Second, I will be on a VoiceOfSanDiego.org panel called "The Economy: Where Are We Really?" on April 23. Details can be found here. Rock star realtor and media sensation Jim Klinge will also be there, along with the Voice’s Kelly Bennett and USD economist Ryan Ratcliff.

Incidentally, I always turn down "panel" invitations for a variety reasons, not the least of which is that they are fairly nerve-wracking. But since the Voice was putting this one on I figured I should be a team player and participate. So feel free to attend if you want to see me all uncomfortable and whatnot.

OK, onto the rodeo.

The size-adjusted median fell for the month, as we’ve all come to expect:

As has often been the case in recent months, this metric deteriorated more for condos than single family homes, with the former being down 4.1% in March compared to just 1.3% for the latter. The single family decline was milder than it has been of late — perhaps a bit of "spring rally" trying to struggle through.

Here’s a chart of the vanilla median, which exhibited similar behavior:

And here’s a chart of the projected decline in the Case-Shiller index. This approximation, based on the size-adjusted median, has overstated the decline in the CS index lately, so take it with a grain of salt.

Volume continued to be pretty good, all things considered, equalling the level of March 2007 — an increase of nearly 50% over a year ago.

Single family sales continue to outstrip condos sales on a year-over-year basis — not surprising in light of the relative weakness in condo prices.

For-sale inventory declined for the month, ending down about 26% from last year.

And the months-of-inventory figure ended up at a multi-year low of 5.2 months:

The inventory decline notwithstanding, March saw an all-time high of 4,260 mortgage default notices — over 60% higher than the number of sales. So inventory may be declining and sales may be increasing, but distressed properties (which is to say, future/potential bank-owned properties) continue to pile up really fast.

As I’ve noted, I am impressed with the level of sales activity considering the severity of the economic downturn (although government-subsidized mortgages with artificially low rates certainly play a huge part in stoking said activity). But there is a large and fast-growing overhang of potential foreclosure properties that have not even hit the market yet. It’s hard to have much confidence in the housing market as a whole for as long as that continues to be the case.