San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
June 2014 Housing Data Rodeo
Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 16, 2014 - 6:34pm
Well now... the median price per square foot for single family homes (which is the best real-ish time price indicator) surged by 3.3% last month:
I didn't see that one coming. I suspect there is a good amount of "noise" involved, and that last month's surge will be smoothed out in the months ahead. Nonetheless, it's indicative of continued upward price pressure. (Condos were up too, for what it's worth).
Same thing from the bubble peak:
Last month's increase gave a nice boost to the estimated/modeled Case-Shiller index... if there was indeed a lot of "noise," however, the real Case-Shiller number should fix it, as it is a much more reliable price measure than the median price per square foot.
And... same thing from the peak:
Onto supply and demand. Closed sales were anemic again:
And pendings also declined. Both are weaker than this time last year.
Inventory continued its recent rise:
But this chart shows that the rise in inventory hasn't made a huge dent in absolute terms:
If we look only at active inventory, that's risen a lot more. Active inventory is 55% higher than it was last year!
This chart shows contingents in red and actives in blue... the decline in the former having offset the rise in the latter, somewhat:
Here's months of inventory (including contingents). This continues upward from a historically very low level.
Here's a linear look:
And here are the same things looking only at months of active inventory. Months of active inventory is up 66%(!) year over year...
But still on the low side, historically speaking:
Here are the two measures of months of inventory (active + contingent, and active only) graphed over the monthly change in home prices. Months of inventory is inverted to better show the relationship... ie, a declining line signifies rising inventory:
You can probably see why last month's price jump was a surprise (to me, anyway). Both measures of months of inventory have been trending up (down on the chart)... inventories are still low, and commensurate with upward price pressure, but given the upward trend in inventories I would have expected price appreciation to be decelerating. Instead, prices surged. Maybe it's noise, or maybe prices legitimately rose due to some other factor (the recent decline in rates?). I suppose the months ahead will give us a better idea.
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