Job Growth Notches Another Positive Month

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 23, 2010 - 6:42pm
San Diego employment growth continued its 2010 streak by rising for another month in April.

The graph below shows monthly San Diego employment since 2007:



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Submitted by UCGal on May 24, 2010 - 8:13am.

If I'm reading that second graph correctly - it's still pretty suckful in the construction sector. That fits with what my husband is observing. (He's an architect... so directly related to construction sector.) Some design is being done - but that final step of doing construction is being put on hold, delayed indefinitely, etc.

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on May 24, 2010 - 10:32am.

2008 ends with nearly 1.29 M jobs, while 2009 starts with 1.25 M jobs.

Almost one-third of the range of the chart is taken up by that one month drop. Wow !

Submitted by ben_vo on May 24, 2010 - 11:57pm.

Interesting data.

I wonder what the vertical axis is and why the curves are discontinuous. I mean (for example) the 2009 curve ends at around 1,220,000 whereas the 2010 curve starts at a noticably lower level of 1,200,000. In fact, all the curves start at a level noticably below the last month level of the prior year. Is it indeed the case or is it some kind of scaling?

Submitted by UCGal on May 25, 2010 - 7:23am.

ben_vo wrote:
Interesting data.

I wonder what the vertical axis is and why the curves are discontinuous. I mean (for example) the 2009 curve ends at around 1,220,000 whereas the 2010 curve starts at a noticably lower level of 1,200,000. In fact, all the curves start at a level noticably below the last month level of the prior year. Is it indeed the case or is it some kind of scaling?

I interpreted it as a monthly drop... look at the 2009 - mid year - there's a big drop between two points... Imagine the each line is spread out sequentially and mentally draw a line between the end of one year (Dec data) and the beginning of the next year (Jan data.)

Submitted by UCGal on May 25, 2010 - 7:24am.

It's interesting to note that there seem to be big drops between June/July every year.

To quote scooby doo.... Ruh-Ro!

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 25, 2010 - 8:07am.

ben_vo wrote:
Interesting data.

I wonder what the vertical axis is and why the curves are discontinuous. I mean (for example) the 2009 curve ends at around 1,220,000 whereas the 2010 curve starts at a noticably lower level of 1,200,000. In fact, all the curves start at a level noticably below the last month level of the prior year. Is it indeed the case or is it some kind of scaling?

It''s because a huge number of temporary retail-related employees lose their jobs every January.

These seasonal ups and downs are just part of the cycle and they are the reason that you can't really look at a given month's growth in isolation. You have to look at it in comparison to what jobs usually do in that month, hence the kind of convoluted graph format where all the months of each year are lined up.

Submitted by ben_vo on May 25, 2010 - 9:02am.

Rich, thanks. That's very interesting to know. (Also, I would like to thank for the blog in general. It was very helpful few years back when I just came to San Diego and was considering to buy or not to buy. We are in escrow now... hoping that next 5-7 years the market will not be too much down from today).

UCGal, right, there are also drops in June/July. I wonder if there is an explanation for that as well.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 25, 2010 - 10:06am.

Thanks Ben. I never verified this but I assume that the July drop each year is due to schools going on break.

Rich

Submitted by livinincali on May 26, 2010 - 8:26am.

Quote:
there are also drops in June/July. I wonder if there is an explanation for that as well.

This year the July/August drop might be pretty severe. You're going to lose the 5000-10000 temporary local census workers and as of right now I don't see how the local and state governments can avoid a significant number of layoffs when state/local budgets go into effect in July.

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