Further Evidence of Improving Job Conditions

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 24, 2010 - 6:16pm
Late last year I wrote a series of posts comparing two sets of available San Diego job surveys.  The first was the "establishment survey," which polls local employers and attempts to measure the number of people working for San Diego businesses regardless of where they live.  The second was the "household survey," which polls San Diego residents in order to find out how many residents are working, regardless of whether they work in the county or not.  The household survey also includes the self-employed, while the establishment survey (as we'd expect from a survey of businesses) does not.

At the time of these articles, the two surveys were providing mixed signals...



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Submitted by GH on April 26, 2010 - 7:49am.

I have noticed the total number of technical jobs posted on Dice has increased from a low last year of around 50,000 to 67,000 today. Many of these positions are contract in nature, but that is where it all begins.

Submitted by UCGal on April 26, 2010 - 8:01am.

I've posted about a tech friend of mine who was out of work for most of last year. She's back to work, finally. She's hoping this gig lasts... it's contract work, and there are no guarantees.

On the other hand - hubbies hours are dropping to close to zero again. (He was 100% unemployed for part of last year - then rehired part time in the fall.) Commercial architecture (building, not software) continues to be a crappy place to be right now.

So my personal observations is that it's a mixed bag right now - some good/some bad.

Submitted by pencilneck on April 27, 2010 - 2:41pm.

Any ideas why these two surveys differ so drastically from the San Diego unemployment rate?

For example, in 2008 the local unemployment rate went up from the 6's to 9-10%. According to the employer surveys most of the significant job losses didn't occur until (and throughout) 2009.

I would assume that the unemployment rate would slightly lag actual jobs, rather than lead by a huge margin. Perhaps this disparity is caused by the way each set of data is seasonally adjusted?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 27, 2010 - 2:58pm.

SD unemployment got as high as 7.4% in Dec 08, and had been below 7% for the rest of 08. It didn't hit double digits until mid-09.

Rich

Submitted by pencilneck on April 27, 2010 - 3:08pm.

My bad. I misread an article yesterday leading me to believe that unemployment surged earlier in San Diego.

Thanks Rich!

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