Cuckoo For Condo Gluts

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 3, 2005 - 10:20pm
The recent San Diego Daily Transcript article about condos in Downtown San Diego contains some frightening statistics...
  • 9,100 Downtown condos and apartments are either under construction or pending approval.
  • 790 Downtown apartments are being converted to condos or have applied to do so.
  • 1,442 Downtown condos will be delivered in 2005.
Just to put those numbers in perspective, consider that throughout all of 2004, 1075 Downtown condos (both new and resale) were purchased. And lest you think that number was kept under wraps by supply constraints, consider the following chart of Downtown MLS sales vs. inventory, which pretty clearly indicates that even as available inventory ramped up during the latter half of the year, sales stayed flat.

Those 1,075 sales only account for 75% of the new inventory slated to hit the market in 2005. Assuming a similar number of sales in 2005 (an assumption that has been borne out thus far), by year's end the inventory of Downtown condos for sale will have more than doubled from its current level. Downtown remains a key location to watch for clues as to the future of the San Diego real estate market.

Editor's Note: I belatedly realized that not all Econo-Almanac readers wasted their youthful weekends watching morning cartoons so I thought I'd provide a little context. The title of this article is an allusion to "Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs," the catch-phrase repeated ad nauseum by Cocoa Puffs pitchman (and apparent addict) Sonny the Cuckoo Bird. For what it's worth, I think the ad campaign ceased to be effective after Sonny checked into rehab for his Cocoa Puffs problem. He still claims to be cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs, but he lacks the hollow-eyed desperation that used to keep the kids entertained and the cereal boxes flying off the shelves.

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