[unbiasedobserver]

Setting your baseline at 2000 is incorrect. Prices in SD started appreciating noticeably in 1997, well before most of the rest of the country. While I do not know the interior condition of the houses in question, I did look at some fairly nice houses in mid-MM around 1995 which were in the 170’s for about 1700sft (in neighborhoods which are considerably nicer than the Flanders area, or were back then anyway), and noone was knocking down the doors to buy them. Therefore I would set your baseline at $100/sft and add your normal appreciation adjustment to that. You can now buy townhouses in Carmel Valley for $400/sft, so for houses in MM to be similarly priced seems absolutely ridiculous IMO. However I do not want to argue now, let’s just check back and update this thread 5-7 years from now. Do believe me however when I tell you the last downcycle lasted from 1990-1997 and the proceding runup wasn’t anything like the one we are coming off of. Good luck, especially if you go ahead and buy now.

[unbiasedobserver]

jimmy, let me try to save you and your fiancee some more money, wait until these are asking $175K before putting in an offer.

[unbiasedobserver]

23,
I have a simple solution for you. First though, I’d say the ‘value’ of your home once you throw out fraud, loose lending, reckling borrowing, and comps based on all of these is probably about $120/sqft, or low $200s. However, it looks like you may possible be in a situation where you could actually buy the house below today’s market value and sell it for a quick profit (no I’m not a flipper, but here’s what I would do). Invite back those realtors who said it was a steal at 400-425 and several more. When one tells you it’s a steal at 425 for example, tell him you will make him the deal of a lifetime and sell it to him for 400 and ask how soon he can close. Do this several times knocking off 20-25 grand off the “steal” price. Having known several realtors, they are always looking for a truly good deal for themselves. If you get no takers above 380 (which I suspect you won’t), go find yourselve another place to rent.

[unbiasedobserver]

bubbleninja, i just relocated to SD and work in SV. We looked at the exact places you mention (enc, sr, rp). If you plan to go to work between 7:30 and 8:30 and return between 4:00 and 6:00, count on an extra 2 hrs/ day spent sitting in your car for everyone of those places vs living closer or in CV/DM. If you’re heading north on 5 and have to pass del mar heights blvd, best of luck to you. Also going down Mira mesa is a nightmare. Before you commit to living anywhere I would highly suggest you try out the commute at the time you intend to make it (and do it Wednesday-Friday). For whatever reason there is very little traffic on Monday. I happened to interview on Monday and drove north afterwards, and mistakenly concluded that commuting to Encinitas would not be a problem!:-( One of the biggest mistakes of my life.

[unbiasedobserver]

Guys, even if there is increased new home traffic, remember the cancellation rates are astronomical, just this morning KB said theirs is running 48%! There are some select buyers who are scared that they may miss “the bottom”, but give them some time to think over their decision and they are backing out en masse. I really won’t be scared that this thing is over until 1) subprime lenders stop imploding 2) cancellation rates seriously decrease 3) builders stop stampeding out of land contracts 4) foreclosures stop exploding. I don’t foresee any of these happening for at least 2-4 years.

[unbiasedobserver]

Okay, I have to jump in here. The horrible nightmare of being stuck with a house in a slow market and having to move due to a job loss is the most horrific situation you can ever be in, as I’ve just experienced 9 months of it, laying awake at night wondering how many more months of double payments you can make before going belly-up. I think this has probably made a lifetime renter out of me, and my kids will be just fine. Oh I finally sold the house and I’m closing today.

[unbiasedobserver]

Recently talked to a contractor who does mostly installation for Lowes, he said his work has been “falling off a cliff” lately. Personable fellow, I feel sorry for him.

[unbiasedobserver]

Yes, a large percentage of SD is pretty undesirable (areawise). When I moved there my company set me up with a relocation specialist. She showed me a big map on the wall and told me to avoid everywhere below the 8 and Oceanside near CP. One time I drove to a southern part of downtown to buy a mattress and I was scared for my life.

[unbiasedobserver]

Downtown SD is the same place is was 10 yrs ago, yet back then NO ONE wanted to live there. They built cityfront as the 2nd major condo development downtown (after harborview) and NO ONE would buy, so they turned cityfront into a rental. I rented there for a year, and sure it was a very nice place to live if you didn’t stray south past the gaslamp. Fast forward 10 years, same place with 1000’s and 1000’s ridiculously overpriced condos. What gives? BTW When Harborview was built in the early 90’s, it remained virtually unoccupied judging by the lights on any given night (<15%), evidentally it was owned by vacation dwellers.

[unbiasedobserver]

I’ve been following the SD market for many years but never posted here. I have friends and family there who confirm the market has slowed dramatically and started declining in certain areas. So I have to ask, with so much anecdotal evidence that prices in SD have been flat or even declined 10% in much of San Diego since 2004, how is it that the technician’s house in question managed a 60% gain?? I’m finding this very hard to believe. Maybe said technician was delusional in believing his house was ever worth $1.1M like so many of today’s sellers?

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