[ocrenter]

yeah, John Liang Homes really overshoot and they are paying for their arrogance on Silhouettes.

So they started selling a year ago, yet they are just starting phase III. They still have two homes in phase II that came back. I think all together you are looking at 15-17 homes sold in the past year!

Some of the builders that came in later, Such as K.Hovnanian with Evergreen, really got agressive with their pricing and probably sold more homes despite coming on line late last year.

If you look across the street to Garden walk, a cluster of pseudo-SFR/detached condos at 1900-2300 sqft, some of the folks there actually bought in the high $600,000’s/low $700,000’s. And now 3,000 sqft new true SFR homes across the street is going for the same price.

that’s got to hurt!

[ocrenter]

I think you’ll be pretty safe. Golden Sunset was build in 2002. with most of the homes going for high $300,000 to low $400,000. These homes at 2800 sqft is slightly larger than Luminara in size, and those are going for low $600,000 right now. So your future landlord in theory has about $200,000 in appreciated equity.

the problem is you don’t know if he has been refinancing and HELOC’ing away. that you can only find out from a Realtor.

as for management companies, generally 8-10% of the rent is the market value.

[ocrenter]

we got a CPA here?

funny. didn’t he realize the $250,000 in improvement is completely not tax deductible? well, unless he worked at home I suppose.

[ocrenter]

I agree with above. It is bad enough to get stationed in Lancaster, it is worse to actually own a home there. Just imagine hell on earth, and there you have Lancaster. Now would you want to own real estate in hell? no. so same goes for Lancaster or Palmdale.

for your housing needs, go to craigslist.org and you’ll have your pick of nice new/newer homes for rent. do your due dilegence and make sure the owner of the home have enough equity in it that he’s not going to just stop paying mortgage and leave you with a foreclosing home. and never pay rent months in advance.

[ocrenter]

actually Gary Watts predicted 7% in 2007, of course a month later OC is firmly in negative territory.

I love the part in the article where NAR cited “the weather” once again.

I don’t recall, but back in 1990 to 1996, did it rain for 6 straight years in SoCal?

[ocrenter]

oh, don’t leave after may, stay right up to the auction date. well, just go to tenants legal center and hear them out. well worth the money.

[ocrenter]

we were in a very similar situation. we ended up going to tenant’s legal center. great source of info there, well worth the $150.

in a nutshell, if you have reason to believe that the owner committed fraud (that includes 1st payment mortgage default, stated owner occupancy on loan docs) then stop paying rent! of course, get the lawyer to look thru your evidence to make sure you are on solid footing on this.

btw, your landlord’s initials isn’t RS, is it?

[ocrenter]

daisy, love to take a look at the data. e-mail me at ocrenter at gmail dot com

[ocrenter]

here’s my posting on the subject, enjoy.

[ocrenter]

Perry, that George is such a whore for the REIC. can you e-mail me that ad to me at ocrenter at gmail dot com? I think it is time to do another story on del sur on my blog.

thanks.

[ocrenter]

lookout, well, if he can actually see himself and his family being in that home for the next 20-30 years, and his career is solid enough and the commute easy enough that there’s no major changes foreseeable, I would say that qualifies as a forever home.

now it is alwasy important to have an exit strategy. but if he is willing to consider this as a “forever home” and never exit this house under any circumstances, then I think $350000 is a decent buy.

would I want to get into a situation where I have no exit strategy and locked in forever? no. but some people are ok with that, and they should buy if they are ok with that.

[ocrenter]

depends on whether you think this could be a forever home for you. If yes, 350 might be ok. however, seeing that you make $130,000, somehow I don’t think you are thinking of this home as a forever home.

If you are thinking of living in it for a few years, and then rent it out, then the math wouldn’t work. 350,000 at 6% would be 2100. plus that 2% property tax and MR = 3500 + 4400 = 7900/year = 660/month + $100/month in HOA = $760/month. So you’ll be looking at $2100 in mortgage + $760 in hoa/MR/property tax = $2860/month. your current rent is $1400, so the price to own would be 100% of your current rent. meaning you will be putting in another $1400 a month on top of what your tenant pays monthly. that will prevent you from moving out of this house ever again. this goes back to my first question: do you see this as a forever home?

waiting hawk: what happened to you? let me know if you decide to change your mind and re-activate your blog so I can put you back on my links.

[ocrenter]

Bugs, thank you for that analysis, the point about the pre-construction pricing made a lot of sense.

Since PC brought up the Fraudera Ranch case, let me ask your opinion on that. Say you have a condo in a complex you are appraising. you know that 5 condos in that complex were involved in fraud, ie, the prices were due to sales to straw buyers. would you just toss the 5 sales out on your appraisal of that condo?

what about a situation where the 5 condos are now REO’s. does that factor into your analysis?

thanks

[ocrenter]

This one is my favorite:

“During the four-year boom that ended last summer, Home Center expanded from 15 agents to 80 in three offices. The roster of agents has since sunk to 52, only about half of whom are active.

“The rest are looking for side jobs at McDonald’s,” said Home Center President Jason Bosch. “It happened overnight.”

[ocrenter]

Guys, guys, guys, did you check out the prices? 3,000 sqft homes starting from the low $700,000! 3,600 sqft run you to low $800,000. Yes these are still high, but they are significantly down from just 6 month to a year ago. Remember, a year ago you can’t get a 3,500 sqft home in 4S Ranch for less than $1 million. 6 months ago we just started seeing 3,000 sqft homes fall to the $800,000 line.

These builders are undercutting folks that bought just 6-12 months ago by $200,000! of course there’s traffic!

Here’s a good example: http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2006/12/4closure-ranch-part-v-flip-gone-flop.html

the flipper that purchased this 3,700sqft gem bought it in June of ’06 for $1.1 million. Yes guys, that’s $1.1 million! If I remember right, Evergreen is selling their largest model, ~3,600 sqft for $850,000.

This is good news guys!

[Author]

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