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Alright, I apologize RightSide….I am being unfair. I have been thinking of going short (with options) myself in LEND, too. I sincerely hope that it does work out for you.

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Perhaps we could do some brainstorming about how best to arrange a meeting so that we don’t get menaced by those who would love for me to shut up.

I’m actually a pretty nice guy.

I’ve shaken the cage of RightSide because many weeks ago he referred to himself as a “sophisticated investor” in the “Bressi Ranch 25% off” post and ignored repeated requests from others to identify what makes him a “sophisticated investor”. Additionally, the smugness in THIS VERY FORUM (which he created) up top…”Watch and learn” I believe he said, had me calling BS! Again… most who refer to themselves as “sophisticated investors” are anything but.

Now..on to an investment club (or social club)…

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If we get several participants (many of whom are in their twenties and probably not flush with thousands of dollars) we could start up with very little capital.

RightSide-you are certainly welcome to join in (assuming you can get enough people to toss coins into your roadside cup to meet our minimum funding standards).

Good luck with that trade (paper?) in LEND!!

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What we really ought to do is form an investment club of our own…for FUN (first) and PROFIT (second). I’ve got ties from my old days as a Wall Street financial consultant to a full-service broker (friend) who discounts my trades to chump change.

Anyone interested in forming an investment club? We could go small $$ ($500 to $1000 per club member) and all get together wearing our Mr. Housing Bubble T-shirts once a month/quarter.

Just a thought. I use to work with a couple of investment clubs and they were mostly social clubs. We’ll not get wealthy doing this but it could be fun.

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This is a “sophisticated” trade? The short percentage of the float was 41.6% a/o May 10th.

Here we have a local (San Diego)company (how cute, convenient, and lazy) with nearly 50% of the shares available to purchase, already sold short.

Pigs get slaughtered…so do sheople.

I would encourage the readers here to be very careful about following anyone’s strategies (mine included, as this trade could work out wonderfully well..who knows?) especially those who claim to be “sophisticated investors” and then throw out a strategy any simplot could have picked(and has…41.6% short ALREADY) on his/her own:

Let’s see…company does only sub-prime lending..lots of ARM resets ahead..think I’ll throw my dart at this one.

If it seems too easy..it is. Remember, there are a LOT of institutions out there who monitor stocks like this every second of every day. Be prepared to lose your ASS going short. Look into buying options if you are that bearish (your downside risk/loss exposure is limited) instead.

Be careful out there.

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One of San Diego’s ZipRealty agents has had her home on the market for nearly 5 months. Someone I know believes that she is getting pretty far behind on property taxes, too.

It’s in her best interest to try and “pump and dump”, no?

At the very least, we need to see legislation passed which would require real estate agents to follow the same “front-running” laws that securities brokers have to follow when selling something. These laws stipulate that a stock-broker cannot sell his shares before his clients have sold theirs(especially if he believes they are going DOWN in value).

Also, disclosure laws are needed which would reveal whether an agent owns “investment” real estate that would benefit from the type of shameless “buy now or be priced out forever” behavior that has been going on for the last several years.

Used house salespeople (ahem, Realtors) need to police their own and CLEAN UP their act!

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“Sophisticated investor” alert! (NOT me…those who know who I am speaking of hopefully get a chuckle)

I’d worry for the safety of the sign-spinner. There is a LOT of hidden concern among wage-earning homeowners, desperate realtors, starving mortgage brokers, etc. Who knows what they will spend their last FEW dollars on? Maybe a gun to mow down a guy doing something more worthwhile than they ever dreamed of doing themeselves?

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Mad-“house” disease?

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“Sophisticated investor” alert!

(Referring to RightSide’s post.)

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Good questions. Wish I had answers, of course. If FED does attempt to “normalize” money towards current house prices, inflation (purchasing power erosion) will be raging. Easier to justify “higher” wages when the value of the dollar is plummeting. Looks like a slight likelihood of hyper-inflation, in my view, followed by the need for a new monetary standard. I really don’t know, though.

Obviously, we (the U.S.) cannot continue to OVER-CONSUME while UNDER-PRODUCING into perpetuity. We can’t all be “fat, dumb, and happy” can we?

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Sorry PowaySeller…I have no insight other than the people I know are apparently stupid and have no idea that they will be the bag-holders in the end.

“I see debt sheeple”

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I agree. The projections for foreclosure percentages are purely guesswork. Also, 80% seems like a really high number to me. I’m not even thinking about foreclosures at this point. Large numbers of short-sales seem more likely to me. Who knows…maybe the banks and government will conspire to keep everyone afloat with forebearance into the 2010s and 2020s? All I know is that housing prices MUST come down.

Anecdotally, nearly all of the thirty-forty somethings we know who have bought/traded-up in the last two to three years, have used the I/O NegAm type of loans just to qualify for their purchase. This, despite having substantial cash to put down, and multi-generational lows in borrowing rates. Certainly, some of these people are f&*ked, no?

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Appreciate the insight bmarum. I’m sure you’d agree, of course, that people who purchased anything for 2.5 times income are rare and, since you likely have high income(s), you are the exact type of people for whom ARM loans make sense.

The “average Joe” has absolutely NO business buying a home for 8-12 times income with a debt instrument (ARM) that enables him/her to “squeeze into” said home.

Nope…the ARM will be the death of this “house of cards”, and it will impact many people’s ability to borrow in the future, it will ruin many people’s credit, it will decimate many in the newer developments like 4S Ranch as they ALL drank the kool-aid and bought the biggest home they could “afford”, and, importantly, it will lead to lower comps and neighborhood instability and upheaval all over San Diego County.

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Please help me to understand why prices won’t drop 50-60% from the top of the market. If I “zillow” most any property in San Diego county, it was worth only HALF of where we are today within the last 5 years. Homes we have been looking at, for instance, in the Poway school district that sold for 900K in 2005 were selling for 450K in 2001.

If you can convince me why a retracement of only 15-25% is in order (effectively rolling back the clocks by only a year or so’s appreciation in this near decade long bull run) instead of a return to at least 2003’s prices, I’d highly appreciate it.

I’m going to be hard to convince, though, because I have lived through enough “it’s different this time” scenarios to know that IT ISN’T DIFFERENT THIS TIME. So sorry to see that you’re on the hook for at least a 320K paper loss (-40%) and more likely 400K to 450K of loss in the coming return to a TRUE “normal” market.

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Hi Powayseller!

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