Time to rebuy S&P500?

[jimg111]

Agreed, do your own DD and I there is a LOT of noise on zerohedge but the REIT analysis is spot on when compared with other independent research I have done.

I also got long in march but pulled the trigger once we got over 900 on the S&P so I left some money on the table, that’s ok. I’m short in a small way and short REITs, market is priced too high of a PE right now, only perfection can result in a significant bounce over 1000 ( or the Obama admistrations continued buying of S&P 500 calls). Personally think buy and hold died last fall for many years to come. IMHO.

[Coronita]

[quote=patientrenter]flu, how does that 5% compare to bonds? My question is, where is future growth in tobacco earnings and dividends? Sure, unit prices may go up, but the number of smokers is declining. CA bonds are offering 6% tax free if you accept no growth.[/quote]

I’m speculating here (actually, I was speculating since Altria got trashed with all the smokers’ lawsuit)…But, specifically, PM derives most of it’s business from tobacco products overseas…I doubt smokers aren’t going away anytime soon overseas, especially asia. Altria, on the other hand, still holds on to tobacco products in NA, which is probably the problem, with all the anti-smoking thing here. Hence, I don’t own Altria shares, though they seem to be paying a 7% dividend.

Recall: Altria (during the tobacco litigations) eventually split into 3 companies. Kraft(KFT), followed by Altria (MO) and Philip Morris International (PM)

As far as CA bonds…Well, personally, given the bankrupt state of CA we are in, I’d say 6% is kinda low 🙂

I guess I’m sort of naive, in that I try to look at relatively stable companies with a decent dividend and where I think there could be some potential equity upside. Chevron is another (3.9%) though it’s much more volatile these days….In more recent times, I’ve been buying selling buying selling CVX more frequently just because it’s so volatile. I try to get in the mid sixties and exit at the low seventies these days, roughly.

(Again not financial advice)…

[Coronita]

[quote=patientrenter]flu, how does that 5% compare to bonds? My question is, where is future growth in tobacco earnings and dividends? Sure, unit prices may go up, but the number of smokers is declining. CA bonds are offering 6% tax free if you accept no growth.[/quote]

I’m speculating here (actually, I was speculating since Altria got trashed with all the smokers’ lawsuit)…But, specifically, PM derives most of it’s business from tobacco products overseas…I doubt smokers aren’t going away anytime soon overseas, especially asia. Altria, on the other hand, still holds on to tobacco products in NA, which is probably the problem, with all the anti-smoking thing here. Hence, I don’t own Altria shares, though they seem to be paying a 7% dividend.

Recall: Altria (during the tobacco litigations) eventually split into 3 companies. Kraft(KFT), followed by Altria (MO) and Philip Morris International (PM)

As far as CA bonds…Well, personally, given the bankrupt state of CA we are in, I’d say 6% is kinda low 🙂

I guess I’m sort of naive, in that I try to look at relatively stable companies with a decent dividend and where I think there could be some potential equity upside. Chevron is another (3.9%) though it’s much more volatile these days….In more recent times, I’ve been buying selling buying selling CVX more frequently just because it’s so volatile. I try to get in the mid sixties and exit at the low seventies these days, roughly.

(Again not financial advice)…

[Coronita]

[quote=patientrenter]flu, how does that 5% compare to bonds? My question is, where is future growth in tobacco earnings and dividends? Sure, unit prices may go up, but the number of smokers is declining. CA bonds are offering 6% tax free if you accept no growth.[/quote]

I’m speculating here (actually, I was speculating since Altria got trashed with all the smokers’ lawsuit)…But, specifically, PM derives most of it’s business from tobacco products overseas…I doubt smokers aren’t going away anytime soon overseas, especially asia. Altria, on the other hand, still holds on to tobacco products in NA, which is probably the problem, with all the anti-smoking thing here. Hence, I don’t own Altria shares, though they seem to be paying a 7% dividend.

Recall: Altria (during the tobacco litigations) eventually split into 3 companies. Kraft(KFT), followed by Altria (MO) and Philip Morris International (PM)

As far as CA bonds…Well, personally, given the bankrupt state of CA we are in, I’d say 6% is kinda low 🙂

I guess I’m sort of naive, in that I try to look at relatively stable companies with a decent dividend and where I think there could be some potential equity upside. Chevron is another (3.9%) though it’s much more volatile these days….In more recent times, I’ve been buying selling buying selling CVX more frequently just because it’s so volatile. I try to get in the mid sixties and exit at the low seventies these days, roughly.

(Again not financial advice)…

[Coronita]

[quote=patientrenter]flu, how does that 5% compare to bonds? My question is, where is future growth in tobacco earnings and dividends? Sure, unit prices may go up, but the number of smokers is declining. CA bonds are offering 6% tax free if you accept no growth.[/quote]

I’m speculating here (actually, I was speculating since Altria got trashed with all the smokers’ lawsuit)…But, specifically, PM derives most of it’s business from tobacco products overseas…I doubt smokers aren’t going away anytime soon overseas, especially asia. Altria, on the other hand, still holds on to tobacco products in NA, which is probably the problem, with all the anti-smoking thing here. Hence, I don’t own Altria shares, though they seem to be paying a 7% dividend.

Recall: Altria (during the tobacco litigations) eventually split into 3 companies. Kraft(KFT), followed by Altria (MO) and Philip Morris International (PM)

As far as CA bonds…Well, personally, given the bankrupt state of CA we are in, I’d say 6% is kinda low 🙂

I guess I’m sort of naive, in that I try to look at relatively stable companies with a decent dividend and where I think there could be some potential equity upside. Chevron is another (3.9%) though it’s much more volatile these days….In more recent times, I’ve been buying selling buying selling CVX more frequently just because it’s so volatile. I try to get in the mid sixties and exit at the low seventies these days, roughly.

(Again not financial advice)…

[Coronita]

[quote=patientrenter]flu, how does that 5% compare to bonds? My question is, where is future growth in tobacco earnings and dividends? Sure, unit prices may go up, but the number of smokers is declining. CA bonds are offering 6% tax free if you accept no growth.[/quote]

I’m speculating here (actually, I was speculating since Altria got trashed with all the smokers’ lawsuit)…But, specifically, PM derives most of it’s business from tobacco products overseas…I doubt smokers aren’t going away anytime soon overseas, especially asia. Altria, on the other hand, still holds on to tobacco products in NA, which is probably the problem, with all the anti-smoking thing here. Hence, I don’t own Altria shares, though they seem to be paying a 7% dividend.

Recall: Altria (during the tobacco litigations) eventually split into 3 companies. Kraft(KFT), followed by Altria (MO) and Philip Morris International (PM)

As far as CA bonds…Well, personally, given the bankrupt state of CA we are in, I’d say 6% is kinda low 🙂

I guess I’m sort of naive, in that I try to look at relatively stable companies with a decent dividend and where I think there could be some potential equity upside. Chevron is another (3.9%) though it’s much more volatile these days….In more recent times, I’ve been buying selling buying selling CVX more frequently just because it’s so volatile. I try to get in the mid sixties and exit at the low seventies these days, roughly.

(Again not financial advice)…

[Hatfield]

I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? Awhile back I did do some research on Orange County, and when OC declared bankruptcy, the original bondholders were made whole. They didn’t lose a penny.

As for the equities market, forget it. To quote John Mauldin: “Sell in May and walk away.”

[Hatfield]

I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? Awhile back I did do some research on Orange County, and when OC declared bankruptcy, the original bondholders were made whole. They didn’t lose a penny.

As for the equities market, forget it. To quote John Mauldin: “Sell in May and walk away.”

[Hatfield]

I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? Awhile back I did do some research on Orange County, and when OC declared bankruptcy, the original bondholders were made whole. They didn’t lose a penny.

As for the equities market, forget it. To quote John Mauldin: “Sell in May and walk away.”

[Hatfield]

I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? Awhile back I did do some research on Orange County, and when OC declared bankruptcy, the original bondholders were made whole. They didn’t lose a penny.

As for the equities market, forget it. To quote John Mauldin: “Sell in May and walk away.”

[Hatfield]

I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? Awhile back I did do some research on Orange County, and when OC declared bankruptcy, the original bondholders were made whole. They didn’t lose a penny.

As for the equities market, forget it. To quote John Mauldin: “Sell in May and walk away.”

[Coronita]

[quote=Hatfield]I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? Awhile back I did do some research on Orange County, and when OC declared bankruptcy, the original bondholders were made whole. They didn’t lose a penny.

As for the equities market, forget it. To quote John Mauldin: “Sell in May and walk away.” [/quote]

yeah, but this time, it’s different 🙂 Just kidding…

i’ll bookmark this thread so half of us can laugh at the end of year (hopefully it’s me :))

[Coronita]

[quote=Hatfield]I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? Awhile back I did do some research on Orange County, and when OC declared bankruptcy, the original bondholders were made whole. They didn’t lose a penny.

As for the equities market, forget it. To quote John Mauldin: “Sell in May and walk away.” [/quote]

yeah, but this time, it’s different 🙂 Just kidding…

i’ll bookmark this thread so half of us can laugh at the end of year (hopefully it’s me :))

[Coronita]

[quote=Hatfield]I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? Awhile back I did do some research on Orange County, and when OC declared bankruptcy, the original bondholders were made whole. They didn’t lose a penny.

As for the equities market, forget it. To quote John Mauldin: “Sell in May and walk away.” [/quote]

yeah, but this time, it’s different 🙂 Just kidding…

i’ll bookmark this thread so half of us can laugh at the end of year (hopefully it’s me :))

[Coronita]

[quote=Hatfield]I’m actually curious about CA muni bonds maturing in the next 6-12 months. Idea is to hold until maturity. Apparently you can get them in the 3.5-4.5% range, no state tax. What I don’t understand is the re-insurance landscape: what happens if a muni defaults, who’s the insurer, how solvent are they, etc? Awhile back I did do some research on Orange County, and when OC declared bankruptcy, the original bondholders were made whole. They didn’t lose a penny.

As for the equities market, forget it. To quote John Mauldin: “Sell in May and walk away.” [/quote]

yeah, but this time, it’s different 🙂 Just kidding…

i’ll bookmark this thread so half of us can laugh at the end of year (hopefully it’s me :))

[Author]

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