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Here is a good one for ya PS,
Yes, and just to make sure everyone can see the year over year changes (rounded):
-2%, -1%, -6%, -7%, -6%, 0%, -1%
They don’t seem big but persistent. Certainly not small if one considers that they should be a few percent positive due to inflation. And even worse if one expects them to be a few percent above inflation.
In the last downturn, unemployment peaked over a 3-year period. graph
It was 8% in SD, 10% in CA, and 12% in the Inland Empire. Since this time will be worse, would be expect 12% unemployment in SD?
Given we are 6% down from peak in less around 7 or 8 months I suspect this bust will be significantly larger / more brutal than history shows busts being.
If we continue to drop at this rate it’ll be 10% down in year one alone – and suicide mortgages have only started to adjust.
Previous corrections took 3 years to drop that much….