The Ongoing Case-Shiller Fallacy/Shadow Inventory

[sdcellar]

Rt.66– Okay, so, I still haven’t gleaned exactly (or even roughly) where you think all this shadow inventory is being held. I think a lot of folks think it’s out there, but unless it hits the market, it doesn’t really matter does it?

So, how is it being held back and more importantly, what’s going to happen that changes that?

Also, you may have posted the exactly what I’m asking and I just missed it among the many missives you’ve written lately (or I was out to lunch whatever week you did provide such commentary). Don’t take this as anything other than a question to which I truly do not know the answer.

[Rt.66]

sdcellar
Is this a trick? I imagine from your handle you are realtor?

I have posted much on this subject have you?

Have some balls and give us some meat. What do you think?

At least the other guy went on record expecting a 20%-30% price reduction.

Do you think the shadow is NOT out there? Do you think it will be kept off the market indefinitely, and not impact RE values further (will they just build bigger dams)? Do you think it will stop swelling anytime soon?

Do you think seconds are playing a sizable roll REDUCING the foreclosure numbers? Do you think loan mods are having a big impact on SD foreclosures.

[Rt.66]

sdcellar
Is this a trick? I imagine from your handle you are realtor?

I have posted much on this subject have you?

Have some balls and give us some meat. What do you think?

At least the other guy went on record expecting a 20%-30% price reduction.

Do you think the shadow is NOT out there? Do you think it will be kept off the market indefinitely, and not impact RE values further (will they just build bigger dams)? Do you think it will stop swelling anytime soon?

Do you think seconds are playing a sizable roll REDUCING the foreclosure numbers? Do you think loan mods are having a big impact on SD foreclosures.

[Rt.66]

sdcellar
Is this a trick? I imagine from your handle you are realtor?

I have posted much on this subject have you?

Have some balls and give us some meat. What do you think?

At least the other guy went on record expecting a 20%-30% price reduction.

Do you think the shadow is NOT out there? Do you think it will be kept off the market indefinitely, and not impact RE values further (will they just build bigger dams)? Do you think it will stop swelling anytime soon?

Do you think seconds are playing a sizable roll REDUCING the foreclosure numbers? Do you think loan mods are having a big impact on SD foreclosures.

[Rt.66]

sdcellar
Is this a trick? I imagine from your handle you are realtor?

I have posted much on this subject have you?

Have some balls and give us some meat. What do you think?

At least the other guy went on record expecting a 20%-30% price reduction.

Do you think the shadow is NOT out there? Do you think it will be kept off the market indefinitely, and not impact RE values further (will they just build bigger dams)? Do you think it will stop swelling anytime soon?

Do you think seconds are playing a sizable roll REDUCING the foreclosure numbers? Do you think loan mods are having a big impact on SD foreclosures.

[Rt.66]

sdcellar
Is this a trick? I imagine from your handle you are realtor?

I have posted much on this subject have you?

Have some balls and give us some meat. What do you think?

At least the other guy went on record expecting a 20%-30% price reduction.

Do you think the shadow is NOT out there? Do you think it will be kept off the market indefinitely, and not impact RE values further (will they just build bigger dams)? Do you think it will stop swelling anytime soon?

Do you think seconds are playing a sizable roll REDUCING the foreclosure numbers? Do you think loan mods are having a big impact on SD foreclosures.

[sdcellar]

Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory. We both believe that something is looming out there, we just have no idea where it is and when it will materialize.

I stated as much and based on your response(s), sounds like you don’t know either. If you don’t know what’s keeping it off the market, then how in the heck can you identify what’s going to make that change?

I don’t think it’s the seconds, at least not in any significant fashion. Loan mods might make a dent, but it sounds like those have still been coming slow in coming and don’t really work very effectively anyway (especially at So Cal valuations).

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are).

No, I’m not a realtor. My handle is three years old. Do you think I thought the bottom was in back then? I certainly don’t right now. It’s simply where I’m from (S.D.) and what I considered clever wordplay at the time (seller, as in I’d sold my house, and cellar, as in basement/bottom/waiting for same[-ish]). For the record, I’m a software engineer. What do you do?

[sdcellar]

Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory. We both believe that something is looming out there, we just have no idea where it is and when it will materialize.

I stated as much and based on your response(s), sounds like you don’t know either. If you don’t know what’s keeping it off the market, then how in the heck can you identify what’s going to make that change?

I don’t think it’s the seconds, at least not in any significant fashion. Loan mods might make a dent, but it sounds like those have still been coming slow in coming and don’t really work very effectively anyway (especially at So Cal valuations).

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are).

No, I’m not a realtor. My handle is three years old. Do you think I thought the bottom was in back then? I certainly don’t right now. It’s simply where I’m from (S.D.) and what I considered clever wordplay at the time (seller, as in I’d sold my house, and cellar, as in basement/bottom/waiting for same[-ish]). For the record, I’m a software engineer. What do you do?

[sdcellar]

Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory. We both believe that something is looming out there, we just have no idea where it is and when it will materialize.

I stated as much and based on your response(s), sounds like you don’t know either. If you don’t know what’s keeping it off the market, then how in the heck can you identify what’s going to make that change?

I don’t think it’s the seconds, at least not in any significant fashion. Loan mods might make a dent, but it sounds like those have still been coming slow in coming and don’t really work very effectively anyway (especially at So Cal valuations).

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are).

No, I’m not a realtor. My handle is three years old. Do you think I thought the bottom was in back then? I certainly don’t right now. It’s simply where I’m from (S.D.) and what I considered clever wordplay at the time (seller, as in I’d sold my house, and cellar, as in basement/bottom/waiting for same[-ish]). For the record, I’m a software engineer. What do you do?

[sdcellar]

Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory. We both believe that something is looming out there, we just have no idea where it is and when it will materialize.

I stated as much and based on your response(s), sounds like you don’t know either. If you don’t know what’s keeping it off the market, then how in the heck can you identify what’s going to make that change?

I don’t think it’s the seconds, at least not in any significant fashion. Loan mods might make a dent, but it sounds like those have still been coming slow in coming and don’t really work very effectively anyway (especially at So Cal valuations).

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are).

No, I’m not a realtor. My handle is three years old. Do you think I thought the bottom was in back then? I certainly don’t right now. It’s simply where I’m from (S.D.) and what I considered clever wordplay at the time (seller, as in I’d sold my house, and cellar, as in basement/bottom/waiting for same[-ish]). For the record, I’m a software engineer. What do you do?

[sdcellar]

Pretty much what I expected. If you posted with regard to question I asked, point me to it. All I’ve heard is shadow, shadow, shadow. As I mentioned in another post, my 4 1/2 year old talks about the shadow inventory. We both believe that something is looming out there, we just have no idea where it is and when it will materialize.

I stated as much and based on your response(s), sounds like you don’t know either. If you don’t know what’s keeping it off the market, then how in the heck can you identify what’s going to make that change?

I don’t think it’s the seconds, at least not in any significant fashion. Loan mods might make a dent, but it sounds like those have still been coming slow in coming and don’t really work very effectively anyway (especially at So Cal valuations).

But again, I’ve admitted that I don’t know where they’re piling up. You seem to be in the same position (or you’d just answer the question and show us how clever you are).

No, I’m not a realtor. My handle is three years old. Do you think I thought the bottom was in back then? I certainly don’t right now. It’s simply where I’m from (S.D.) and what I considered clever wordplay at the time (seller, as in I’d sold my house, and cellar, as in basement/bottom/waiting for same[-ish]). For the record, I’m a software engineer. What do you do?

[Rt.66]

Fair enough. By your antagonistic approach to me I assumed you were a realtor. Sorry.

Thanks for giving some actual opinions that’s a rare commodity around here on some hot topic threads.

What exactly do you mean when you ask “where is the shadow inventory?”

Are you asking me where as in “please provide addresses for 10,000 plus distressed SD homes” (shadow)?

You can go to RealQuest and get the street names is that good enough for you?

There are houses near me that don’t show on RealQuest or RealtyTrac and have been empty for years, (yes years) but if you drove around the hood you would probably not be able to identify them nor would people who drive by them all the time.

If a neighbor 5 houses down from you stopped paying his mortgage 6 months ago and the banks have not filed a NOD then neither you nor I could find it even on RealQuest.

I guess what I am saying is that even with all you can find on ReaQuest, a majority of the homes probably are not easily discerned from the outside as being in a stage of foreclosure. Many still have people living in them. Many are kept up by the banks because they get fined if they don’t.

So if you are insinuating that because you or your 4 year old can’t “see” them that that somehow undermines the validity of their existence then I give up.

[Rt.66]

Fair enough. By your antagonistic approach to me I assumed you were a realtor. Sorry.

Thanks for giving some actual opinions that’s a rare commodity around here on some hot topic threads.

What exactly do you mean when you ask “where is the shadow inventory?”

Are you asking me where as in “please provide addresses for 10,000 plus distressed SD homes” (shadow)?

You can go to RealQuest and get the street names is that good enough for you?

There are houses near me that don’t show on RealQuest or RealtyTrac and have been empty for years, (yes years) but if you drove around the hood you would probably not be able to identify them nor would people who drive by them all the time.

If a neighbor 5 houses down from you stopped paying his mortgage 6 months ago and the banks have not filed a NOD then neither you nor I could find it even on RealQuest.

I guess what I am saying is that even with all you can find on ReaQuest, a majority of the homes probably are not easily discerned from the outside as being in a stage of foreclosure. Many still have people living in them. Many are kept up by the banks because they get fined if they don’t.

So if you are insinuating that because you or your 4 year old can’t “see” them that that somehow undermines the validity of their existence then I give up.

[Rt.66]

Fair enough. By your antagonistic approach to me I assumed you were a realtor. Sorry.

Thanks for giving some actual opinions that’s a rare commodity around here on some hot topic threads.

What exactly do you mean when you ask “where is the shadow inventory?”

Are you asking me where as in “please provide addresses for 10,000 plus distressed SD homes” (shadow)?

You can go to RealQuest and get the street names is that good enough for you?

There are houses near me that don’t show on RealQuest or RealtyTrac and have been empty for years, (yes years) but if you drove around the hood you would probably not be able to identify them nor would people who drive by them all the time.

If a neighbor 5 houses down from you stopped paying his mortgage 6 months ago and the banks have not filed a NOD then neither you nor I could find it even on RealQuest.

I guess what I am saying is that even with all you can find on ReaQuest, a majority of the homes probably are not easily discerned from the outside as being in a stage of foreclosure. Many still have people living in them. Many are kept up by the banks because they get fined if they don’t.

So if you are insinuating that because you or your 4 year old can’t “see” them that that somehow undermines the validity of their existence then I give up.

[Rt.66]

Fair enough. By your antagonistic approach to me I assumed you were a realtor. Sorry.

Thanks for giving some actual opinions that’s a rare commodity around here on some hot topic threads.

What exactly do you mean when you ask “where is the shadow inventory?”

Are you asking me where as in “please provide addresses for 10,000 plus distressed SD homes” (shadow)?

You can go to RealQuest and get the street names is that good enough for you?

There are houses near me that don’t show on RealQuest or RealtyTrac and have been empty for years, (yes years) but if you drove around the hood you would probably not be able to identify them nor would people who drive by them all the time.

If a neighbor 5 houses down from you stopped paying his mortgage 6 months ago and the banks have not filed a NOD then neither you nor I could find it even on RealQuest.

I guess what I am saying is that even with all you can find on ReaQuest, a majority of the homes probably are not easily discerned from the outside as being in a stage of foreclosure. Many still have people living in them. Many are kept up by the banks because they get fined if they don’t.

So if you are insinuating that because you or your 4 year old can’t “see” them that that somehow undermines the validity of their existence then I give up.

[Author]

Posts