Sub 1.5m 92107 inventory now below 1 month

[gzz]

Just when I thought inventory could not get any lower!

The following 92107 markets are all below 1 month supply both by themselves and collectively: condos, SFH under 1m, SFH 1 to 1.5m.

The 10% year over year price increases just are not enough to even get people to list much less sell.

[spdrun]

People aren’t listing BECAUSE of price increases. When price increases slow, people will start listing because
(a) there’s no point holding on hoping for another 10%
(b) they can take their time and buy something else without “losing out”

[gzz]

At least right now, I am not sure people are aware the market is primed for a 10% increase. Zillow has been broke for more than a year now in San Diego. Despite the inventory figures above, it predicts 92107 will go up 0.0% for the next year (it was 1% a few weeks ago). Meanwhile the media is reporting no increase this month based purely on median price, not the more accurate PPSF Rich uses or the paired sales of Case Schiller. Overall, even during the big increase years of 2012 and 2013, I don’t sense the popular interest in RE as a get rich investment anything like the mid-00s.

[spdrun]

We’ll see…

Business lending slowing…
http://fortune.com/2017/03/23/donald-trump-economy-lending/

[evolusd]

My hood of San Elijo Hills (south 92078) is ridiculously low as well. This spring will be interesting.

[sdsurfer]

[quote=spdrun]We’ll see…

Business lending slowing…
http://fortune.com/2017/03/23/donald-trump-economy-lending/%5B/quote%5D

Looking at the chart it seems like business lending has been in the positive every year since 93 except a few months in 2010? The 9.5% year over year they mention of the past 4 years seems pretty high so maybe the 1.1% of growth is reasonable?

on the inventory…could it be that a lot of people agree stocks are a bit inflated right now so if they sold where would they put the money? Maybe they think SoCal Real Estate is a better bet and/or have long term goals with fixed financing in place and the properties cash flowing from rents.

[spdrun]

Growth is the critical number in this chart. Growth falling to near zero is a sign a big ‘ol opportunity is on the way.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=spdrun]Growth is the critical number in this chart. Growth falling to near zero is a sign a big ‘ol opportunity is on the way.[/quote]

I sense a regular employment led recession coming that will affect housing. Not a housing crash like 2008 but an employment led recession.

[woodrow]

As a townhouse owner in 92107 looking to move up to a SFH in 92107 or 92106, I watch the Pennisula market daily.
Anything south of $1M is a fixer and usually pending in days. North of $1.2-1.3M market seems to linger longer, but not a ton of inventory there either.

Perhaps OB is finally turning the corner.

[Escoguy]

If I sold one of my six, then I’d likely pay down debt but my cost of funding is 3.05% (3 fixed loans, one variable).

So the real next cost after deductions and inflation is basically zero.

Why pay that off or sell when I get 6% gross yields on current market value.

One would have to think demand would be much softer going forward but most properties rent in a few days.

[gzz]

Woodrow, all three of my 92107 properties came by watching the market almost daily and swooping down like a hawk when a well priced one came down.

The good thing for you is that your townhouse probably appreciated more than the SFH you want to trade it for.

If you can marginally afford it, buy and rent the SFH now and live in the townhouse.

I still have not moved into my biggest OB home, the rent is just too good on it. It is hard when I inspect or repair it and see how nice and big it is, to own but not enjoy it.

[woodrow]

Thanks gzz. We’re being picky and looking mostly in the Silvergate/Sunset View school zones, but we’ll move agressively when we find the one. Inventory is currently so low that patience is the key.

[gzz]

Woodrow, if we are set for 10-20% increase this year, and I think we are, then patience could work against you. OB Elementary I think is now up to 9/10 rating due to gentrification. And the areas around the very top schools like Silvergate I believe have schoolage population declines that require them to take out of zone kids or risk closing.

The area a little east of Sunset Cliffs around OB Elementary is all SF zoned and mostly view houses walking distance from Newport Ave amenities.

[woodrow]

Totally agree gzz. That’s why I’m back on these forums after ~ a 5 year hiatus; I want to make sure I have the pulse of the market. The obvious question for me on a personal level is whether my townhouse will appreciate more than the SFH I’m seeking over the next 12-18 months. Thus far, I’ve been fortunate but I’m afraid that townhouses/apartments in 92107 and 92106 may be reaching their ceilings, and it’s time to switch horses.

[gzz]

Update: there is exactly 1 SFH in all of OB west of Sunset Cliffs Blvd. It is listed at $3.4 million.

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