Straight from horses mouth – Schiller says “substantial downward risk”

[scaredyclassic]

is it possible for the govt to get out? or will the govt just keep catching the knife all the way to the bottom?

[j]

I do not believe that the Government will leave the mortgage market at the end of March either, because there will be no market.

I saw a clip with economists and other financial types predicting mortgage rates after the Fed leaves the market. Most said a 1% increase, but none of the 1 percenters saw the bubble. Chris Thornberg said at least 2%. I thing the one guy that saw the bubble has the most credibility. A 2% increase in mortgage rates will halt home sales, so the Fed will not leave the market.

[j]

I do not believe that the Government will leave the mortgage market at the end of March either, because there will be no market.

I saw a clip with economists and other financial types predicting mortgage rates after the Fed leaves the market. Most said a 1% increase, but none of the 1 percenters saw the bubble. Chris Thornberg said at least 2%. I thing the one guy that saw the bubble has the most credibility. A 2% increase in mortgage rates will halt home sales, so the Fed will not leave the market.

[j]

I do not believe that the Government will leave the mortgage market at the end of March either, because there will be no market.

I saw a clip with economists and other financial types predicting mortgage rates after the Fed leaves the market. Most said a 1% increase, but none of the 1 percenters saw the bubble. Chris Thornberg said at least 2%. I thing the one guy that saw the bubble has the most credibility. A 2% increase in mortgage rates will halt home sales, so the Fed will not leave the market.

[j]

I do not believe that the Government will leave the mortgage market at the end of March either, because there will be no market.

I saw a clip with economists and other financial types predicting mortgage rates after the Fed leaves the market. Most said a 1% increase, but none of the 1 percenters saw the bubble. Chris Thornberg said at least 2%. I thing the one guy that saw the bubble has the most credibility. A 2% increase in mortgage rates will halt home sales, so the Fed will not leave the market.

[j]

I do not believe that the Government will leave the mortgage market at the end of March either, because there will be no market.

I saw a clip with economists and other financial types predicting mortgage rates after the Fed leaves the market. Most said a 1% increase, but none of the 1 percenters saw the bubble. Chris Thornberg said at least 2%. I thing the one guy that saw the bubble has the most credibility. A 2% increase in mortgage rates will halt home sales, so the Fed will not leave the market.

[Matt SF]

[quote=j]A 2% increase in mortgage rates will halt home sales, so the Fed will not leave the market.[/quote]

I agree. Ironically, it was government intervention that helped cause the real estate bubble in the first place, but the same intervention will be required to prevent further devaluation.

And one more reason, among many, that I don’t buy the “this is the time to invest in real estate” argument from some RE investors. I don’t think DC will allow rates to increase simply because they’ll never clear their books of the inventory (and shadow inventory).

[Matt SF]

[quote=j]A 2% increase in mortgage rates will halt home sales, so the Fed will not leave the market.[/quote]

I agree. Ironically, it was government intervention that helped cause the real estate bubble in the first place, but the same intervention will be required to prevent further devaluation.

And one more reason, among many, that I don’t buy the “this is the time to invest in real estate” argument from some RE investors. I don’t think DC will allow rates to increase simply because they’ll never clear their books of the inventory (and shadow inventory).

[Matt SF]

[quote=j]A 2% increase in mortgage rates will halt home sales, so the Fed will not leave the market.[/quote]

I agree. Ironically, it was government intervention that helped cause the real estate bubble in the first place, but the same intervention will be required to prevent further devaluation.

And one more reason, among many, that I don’t buy the “this is the time to invest in real estate” argument from some RE investors. I don’t think DC will allow rates to increase simply because they’ll never clear their books of the inventory (and shadow inventory).

[Matt SF]

[quote=j]A 2% increase in mortgage rates will halt home sales, so the Fed will not leave the market.[/quote]

I agree. Ironically, it was government intervention that helped cause the real estate bubble in the first place, but the same intervention will be required to prevent further devaluation.

And one more reason, among many, that I don’t buy the “this is the time to invest in real estate” argument from some RE investors. I don’t think DC will allow rates to increase simply because they’ll never clear their books of the inventory (and shadow inventory).

[Matt SF]

[quote=j]A 2% increase in mortgage rates will halt home sales, so the Fed will not leave the market.[/quote]

I agree. Ironically, it was government intervention that helped cause the real estate bubble in the first place, but the same intervention will be required to prevent further devaluation.

And one more reason, among many, that I don’t buy the “this is the time to invest in real estate” argument from some RE investors. I don’t think DC will allow rates to increase simply because they’ll never clear their books of the inventory (and shadow inventory).

[Aecetia]

I wonder what a substantial downward risk means percentage wise? Then it could go either way…
definition? Void for vagueness.

[Aecetia]

I wonder what a substantial downward risk means percentage wise? Then it could go either way…
definition? Void for vagueness.

[Aecetia]

I wonder what a substantial downward risk means percentage wise? Then it could go either way…
definition? Void for vagueness.

[Aecetia]

I wonder what a substantial downward risk means percentage wise? Then it could go either way…
definition? Void for vagueness.

[Author]

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