San Diego drastically outperforms Bay and LA on rents

[gzz]

LA City only and all of the Bay area see large rent declines.

San Diego is +7% on 1 bedrooms and +18% on two bedrooms.

https://www.apartmentguide.com/blog/apartment-guide-annual-rent-report/

[gzz]

Alternative source: https://www.realtor.com/research/march-2021-rent/

SD and Sacramento are still on top, but much lower rents and increases.

[sdrealtor]

Yes there seems to be more and more evidence of a southern migration in the state

[an]

In the submarket that I’m keeping an eye on for the last 15 years (Mira Mesa), house rent was low (relative to 1/1 & 2/2 condos) and wasn’t moving very much before last year. 4/3 houses were renting for $3200-3400/month and smaller 4/2 & 3/2 were renting for $2600-2800/month for about 5 years. I just checked Zillow and the big houses are all around $4000-4600/month now. While the smaller houses are renting for $3200-3400. That’s a huge jump. While 1/1 & 2/2 condo rent price haven’t gone up much over the last 2 years. 1/1 are still around $1700/month and 2/2 are still around $2200/month.

The rent gap between big and small houses were around 400-600/month for the last 15 years. However, now, they’re 800-1200/month. Which is quite interesting and might show a shift in who’s moving here.

[Coronita]

cha-ching! carmel valley $5000/month is looking like a steal for my tenant. thats ok. as long as they stay for awhile….and id they dont thats ok too, jack up rents if they move. cant find many sfh in 92130 under $5000/month.

win win.

1/1 is now pushing closer to 1850/month btw.

in 92130 One paseo wants $3000 for a 1/1 and 5600/month for a 3/3. great time to be a landlord in SD.

Using a term in street racing….time to gap others…

[The-Shoveler]

Don’t know about SF, but LA the homeless situation is totally out of control.

They celebrate hiring several more homeless managers (for lack of better word) to hire more people to hand out more money and provide trash service to homeless encampments, meanwhile more homeless move in.

[gzz]

SF homelessness is much worse in 2021 than late 2019. Major shopping streets are 1/3 boarded up and covered in tents that block 80-100% of the sidewalk.

The sidewalks are also heavily blocked by homeless people selling all the stuff they shoplifted on spread out on blankets. Just random CVS type stuff in its packaging.

It was really a sad sight. My girlfriend had never been there and I was looking forward to showing her around, and we repeatedly had to walk down the street to because the sidewalks were completely blocked.

All of this was normal in the Tenderloin area before, but now it has spread all over the city.

[an]

All of this homeless problem wouldn’t matter if there’s no working from home option. People will complain but they’ll still be there.

[The-Shoveler]

“All of this was normal in the Tenderloin area before, but now it has spread all over the city.”

Same in LA used to be confined to skid row in downtown, now its all over the city (and not just the downtown parts).

[EconProf]

Given all the above well-documented trends, here are some questions for readers of what all this portends for San Diego’s future:
1. To what extent are LA’s and Bay area’s homelessness problems (and their government policies that enable it) fueling their population exodus?
2. To what extent are SD’s rent gains and house price gains due to arguably better government and conservative reputation (albeit now rapidly changing)?
3. Since CA state policies affect all 3 of these big cities, and said policies combined with our weather attract the homeless from all over the country (and now, from the world when they come to the US and pick a state to live in), what will San Diego’s future look like in terms of demographics, fiscal situation, cost of living, and attractiveness to business?

[sdrealtor]

1. Minimal if even measureable
2. None
3. Continued growth driven in large part to the increasing size, reputation, growth and excellence of UCSD and the Biotech/Tech core al;ready in place. Always bumps on the road but only rising long term. This is an incredible City/MSA and will only continue to prosper.

[Coronita]

.

[Coronita]

[quote=EconProf]Given all the above well-documented trends, here are some questions for readers of what all this portends for San Diego’s future:
1. To what extent are LA’s and Bay area’s homelessness problems (and their government policies that enable it) fueling their population exodus?
2. To what extent are SD’s rent gains and house price gains due to arguably better government and conservative reputation (albeit now rapidly changing)?
3. Since CA state policies affect all 3 of these big cities, and said policies combined with our weather attract the homeless from all over the country (and now, from the world when they come to the US and pick a state to live in), what will San Diego’s future look like in terms of demographics, fiscal situation, cost of living, and attractiveness to business?[/quote]

1. don’t care
2. don’t care
3. don’t care

Crypto and housing baby… Cha-ching!

[gzz]

1. None. If the growth of squalor in SF causes a condo to go from 1.3 to 1.1 million, that’s not going to affect population in any material way.

Long term, the reason SF Bay is losing population is that as people get richer, they want more living space and to live with fewer people, and are willing to pay a lot of money to do so, but there’s not a corresponding increase in livable space.

2. It’s part of it for sure. I think we’re just about the best run large city in the USA.

3. California does well at both attracting and creating rich people, and then taxing them. The fiscal situation of the state is very strong with a gigantic surplus. SD will continue to be a better place to live, and people will continue to pay more and more to live here.

[flyer]

Understand your concerns, EP, and they may well prove to be true. That said, I feel that many of us who decide to stay in CA, despite all of the issues, and have what we and our families need to live wonderful lives here for many years to come, don’t really factor the negatives into our decision.

As I’ve said before, I’m sure you could have chosen to stay also, but you made your choice based upon other criteria that was more important to you. I wish you the best in that, but I don’t think you’ll receive too much support from those who choose to stay in CA.

[Author]

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