Perfect Storm: Credit Crunch + Temblor

[one_muggle]

Lucy Jones, aka earthquake lady, is warning of past due major quake. I’ve spoken with her in the past and she tends to parse her words to avoid being overly dramatic, but her recent comments,
“Whatever it is that makes for a long interval is happening now, and we know that long interval can’t last forever,” Jones said. “This is an overdue fault.”
“We should put a box on the front page of the paper each day saying we are 3,600 months and 75 days overdue for a quake to remind people to be ready.”
see: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-seismic10aug10,0,246031.story?coll=la-home-center
started me thinking that right about now through the next 18 months or so, is probably the worst time, economically, for a really massive quake in LA or SD (which is less probable, but possibly more risky given its location and geology).
Some of the most bearish predictions might become reality for all of SoCal if a massive quake hits anywhere from Oxnard to SD.
I know on my previous home I did not carry Earthquake insurance, even though the very hills my house sat upon were formed by seismic activity, simply because I could do basic math and it just wasn’t worth it. I wonder what economic sht storm would we all be in if this thing lets loose at the beginning of this massive RE correction?
Would it simply speed things up, or would the descent take on a whole new bottom?
Would you speculators out there jump on deals right away or would you take a moment to see which way things are headed? (I am talking a financial decision, not a moral conflict–I am assuming most people, except maybe TV producers, would wait until the fires were out before jumping)

[patientrenter]

one_muggle, earthquakes were part of the early 1990’s downturn – the Northridge quake contributed to the negative view of S. Ca. I have always hoped for a little contemporary quake to help in a new downtrend. Yes, most people will be turned off, but I and other people will treat it as a buying opportunity, after the total price decreases get big enough.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

one_muggle, earthquakes were part of the early 1990’s downturn – the Northridge quake contributed to the negative view of S. Ca. I have always hoped for a little contemporary quake to help in a new downtrend. Yes, most people will be turned off, but I and other people will treat it as a buying opportunity, after the total price decreases get big enough.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

one_muggle, earthquakes were part of the early 1990’s downturn – the Northridge quake contributed to the negative view of S. Ca. I have always hoped for a little contemporary quake to help in a new downtrend. Yes, most people will be turned off, but I and other people will treat it as a buying opportunity, after the total price decreases get big enough.

Patient renter in OC

[one_muggle]

Yes patient, that is kind of my concern. If you look at a recent DQnews:
http://www.dqnews.com/RRSCA0807.shtm
This downturn is happening in spite of major external stimulus. I know one can argue the credit market crunch is the stimulus, but I think it is so interrelated as to be tge same event, also SD was going down BEFORE the crunch, and helped to precipitate it.

“These are interesting times because the slowdown in home sales isn’t part of a broader economic slowdown, it’s a post-frenzy re-balancing act. The last time we had sales this slow, Southern California had been in recession for a few years. Jobs were being lost in droves, people were leaving the area and home prices fell significantly. This time around we haven’t seen that, sellers are holding out and we can only assume demand is building up,” said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

Looking at the state of the market, without some other external event, such as job losses (like Detroit), god forbid a major terror incident, or my point here, which is a major quake. I think a quake anywhere in SoCal will be akin to the subprime meltdown on Wallstreet where the meltdown reminded the street of the risks. With a major quake, even areas unaffected by the quake will drop harder than they would have simply because the RISK of quakes and the like will be brought back into the calculus. Given how long it has been, I don’t think people have factored it in.

What percentage of homes bought homes in the last ~10yrs since the previous major SoCal quake were by transplants from non-quake areas?

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Yes patient, that is kind of my concern. If you look at a recent DQnews:
http://www.dqnews.com/RRSCA0807.shtm
This downturn is happening in spite of major external stimulus. I know one can argue the credit market crunch is the stimulus, but I think it is so interrelated as to be tge same event, also SD was going down BEFORE the crunch, and helped to precipitate it.

“These are interesting times because the slowdown in home sales isn’t part of a broader economic slowdown, it’s a post-frenzy re-balancing act. The last time we had sales this slow, Southern California had been in recession for a few years. Jobs were being lost in droves, people were leaving the area and home prices fell significantly. This time around we haven’t seen that, sellers are holding out and we can only assume demand is building up,” said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

Looking at the state of the market, without some other external event, such as job losses (like Detroit), god forbid a major terror incident, or my point here, which is a major quake. I think a quake anywhere in SoCal will be akin to the subprime meltdown on Wallstreet where the meltdown reminded the street of the risks. With a major quake, even areas unaffected by the quake will drop harder than they would have simply because the RISK of quakes and the like will be brought back into the calculus. Given how long it has been, I don’t think people have factored it in.

What percentage of homes bought homes in the last ~10yrs since the previous major SoCal quake were by transplants from non-quake areas?

-one muggle

[one_muggle]

Yes patient, that is kind of my concern. If you look at a recent DQnews:
http://www.dqnews.com/RRSCA0807.shtm
This downturn is happening in spite of major external stimulus. I know one can argue the credit market crunch is the stimulus, but I think it is so interrelated as to be tge same event, also SD was going down BEFORE the crunch, and helped to precipitate it.

“These are interesting times because the slowdown in home sales isn’t part of a broader economic slowdown, it’s a post-frenzy re-balancing act. The last time we had sales this slow, Southern California had been in recession for a few years. Jobs were being lost in droves, people were leaving the area and home prices fell significantly. This time around we haven’t seen that, sellers are holding out and we can only assume demand is building up,” said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

Looking at the state of the market, without some other external event, such as job losses (like Detroit), god forbid a major terror incident, or my point here, which is a major quake. I think a quake anywhere in SoCal will be akin to the subprime meltdown on Wallstreet where the meltdown reminded the street of the risks. With a major quake, even areas unaffected by the quake will drop harder than they would have simply because the RISK of quakes and the like will be brought back into the calculus. Given how long it has been, I don’t think people have factored it in.

What percentage of homes bought homes in the last ~10yrs since the previous major SoCal quake were by transplants from non-quake areas?

-one muggle

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