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May 4, 2007 at 8:30 AM #8999May 4, 2007 at 9:03 AM #51833no_such_realityParticipant
So looking at 1985 to 2006, basically, ten years of up bubble pricing and 5 years of down pricing, and calling that “normal” they still conclude that prices are over-valued.
May 4, 2007 at 10:13 AM #51842sddreamingParticipantThis is an interesting read. Thanks for posting it asragov.
San Diego is overvalued by 29.6%, yet the report ranks it as being “moderately overvalued”. San Francisco is overvalued by 29.7%, but it is considered “overvalued”.
San Diego has a coef. value of only 0.512 and a t-Stat of 4.6. That surprises me a little. Maybe this is related to factors like relatively lower incomes and high traffic volumes? Don’t know. San Jose has a coeff of 2.196 and a t-stat of 31.9. Personally, I think San Diego is much more liveable than San Jose.
Tongue in cheek comment related to powayseller thread: On second thought, this report reeks of data and statistical analysis. The author should have included real life subjective data points, like realtor interviews, to make it more factual.
May 4, 2007 at 10:23 AM #5184623109VCParticipantI pulled up Riverside. It shows overvaluatation of almost 70%…..
here is a question about that however – Riverside/San Bernardino as a whole have POCKETS of nice stuff, and PILES Of crap. you have entire zip codes of scumville in these two counties.. then you have nice little spots like Temecula…that are basically outcroppings of the SD market and OC market… 90% of it is upscale, cleancut, etc.
You can’t compare Temecula and say… Perris…or Colton…or Romoland… that would be like comparing Scripps Ranch to some gang infested nasty part of San diego…
so when these “over value” estimates are made..I wonder how it will pan out when you talk about nice areas vs junk.
i can see prices crumbling in Perris. no one wants to live there. I see places like temecula and scripps ranch.. and think.. ok prices may fall… but bottom line is that there WILL be people with money who want to live in these places…. so while prices may fall… i dont’ necessarily see Scripps or nice parts of Temecula falling as much as the slums… so these “over value” numbers ar emisleading in that they clump the whole county together and you can’t do that.
prices in La Jolla aren’t goign to drop or change exactly the same as prices in Scripps, or Mira Mesa….or Carmel Valley… you may see overall trends… but do you think prices will fall the SAME across the board in all areas iwthi n a county.. i don’t think so.
i’m not saying stuff won’t fall. in my nice little area of Temecula… houses are sitting for sale and not moving… there are piles of houss on the maket.
why would my landlord hav eoffered me his house at almost a 100,000 LOSS unless he felt he coldn’t do any better?
May 4, 2007 at 11:30 AM #51856asragovParticipant23109VC-
Your question is probably related to the whole “median price” discussion. The median price can obscure movements in all areas of the market.
Remember Keynes’ saying, that “Markets can remain illogical for longer than you can remain solvent.”
May 4, 2007 at 11:52 AM #51859gnParticipant“then you have nice little spots like Temecula…that are basically outcroppings of the SD market and OC market… 90% of it is upscale, cleancut, etc.”
The problem with Temecula is it’s infested with speculations/fraud. While the houses in Temecula may look nice on the outside, it is the financings of the houses that are crummy. In the next few years, foreclosures will mushroom in Temecula.
I suspect that the main reason Temecula looks good now b/c most of it is relatively new. Overtime, new houses will become old. This is why, in real estate, it’s all about the location. And Temecula is “location challenged”.
Temecula is an “outcropping” of SD & OC. Riverside is also an “outcropping” of OC & LA. Riverside used to be new & looked good too.
May 4, 2007 at 2:46 PM #51869SHILOHParticipantCorpus Christi TX is undervalued.
May 4, 2007 at 2:54 PM #51872PerryChaseParticipantNeighborhood prices don’t happen in a vacuum. They move up and down in relation to what’s else is out there. Everything is interrelated.
September 14, 2007 at 10:45 AM #84547Sandi EganParticipant2007 Q2 report shows San Diego prices overvalued by only 18%.
http://www.nationalcity.com/corporate/EconomicInsight/HousingValuation/default.asp?WT.mc_id=100206September 14, 2007 at 12:46 PM #84567PadreBrianParticipantThey are creaping down. 4th quarter should be down to 10% overvalued.
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