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Allan from Fallbrook.
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June 9, 2009 at 2:27 PM #413503June 9, 2009 at 2:28 PM #412814
dbapig
Participant[quote=flu][quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
[/quote]Load a bunch of C130 cargo planes with U.S. propaganda. But instead of dropping leaflets, just drop them DVD copies of “Team America: World Police.” They can be the bootlegged copies from China to save on cost.
America…Fvck Yeah…
[/quote]Bad plan. Many NK people don’t know what DVD is. MOST haven’t seen a cell phone. Even if they some how got DVD AND DVDplayer/TV, there probably isn’t electricity to power them…
June 9, 2009 at 2:28 PM #413049Participant[quote=flu][quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
[/quote]Load a bunch of C130 cargo planes with U.S. propaganda. But instead of dropping leaflets, just drop them DVD copies of “Team America: World Police.” They can be the bootlegged copies from China to save on cost.
America…Fvck Yeah…
[/quote]Bad plan. Many NK people don’t know what DVD is. MOST haven’t seen a cell phone. Even if they some how got DVD AND DVDplayer/TV, there probably isn’t electricity to power them…
June 9, 2009 at 2:28 PM #413295Participant[quote=flu][quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
[/quote]Load a bunch of C130 cargo planes with U.S. propaganda. But instead of dropping leaflets, just drop them DVD copies of “Team America: World Police.” They can be the bootlegged copies from China to save on cost.
America…Fvck Yeah…
[/quote]Bad plan. Many NK people don’t know what DVD is. MOST haven’t seen a cell phone. Even if they some how got DVD AND DVDplayer/TV, there probably isn’t electricity to power them…
June 9, 2009 at 2:28 PM #413358Participant[quote=flu][quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
[/quote]Load a bunch of C130 cargo planes with U.S. propaganda. But instead of dropping leaflets, just drop them DVD copies of “Team America: World Police.” They can be the bootlegged copies from China to save on cost.
America…Fvck Yeah…
[/quote]Bad plan. Many NK people don’t know what DVD is. MOST haven’t seen a cell phone. Even if they some how got DVD AND DVDplayer/TV, there probably isn’t electricity to power them…
June 9, 2009 at 2:28 PM #413508Participant[quote=flu][quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
[/quote]Load a bunch of C130 cargo planes with U.S. propaganda. But instead of dropping leaflets, just drop them DVD copies of “Team America: World Police.” They can be the bootlegged copies from China to save on cost.
America…Fvck Yeah…
[/quote]Bad plan. Many NK people don’t know what DVD is. MOST haven’t seen a cell phone. Even if they some how got DVD AND DVDplayer/TV, there probably isn’t electricity to power them…
June 9, 2009 at 2:31 PM #412783Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=dbapig][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
It’s also interesting to note that North Korea does not consider South Korea it’s main foe: The US holds that role. South Korea considers North Korea their main enemy, but not vice versa.Either way, a second Korean War would be devastating and I don’t doubt that we’d see WMD and even nukes if Kim had them in deployable fashion. I don’t seriously think he wants war, especially because he knows the final outcome, but it’s a convenient bargaining chip/tool for him to use.
[/quote]it’s quite late but I must comment on this statement that NKorea doesn’t consider SKorea as its main enemy quite irks me. That idea is actually a very clever piece of propaganda NKorea has been spreading for a very long time. Despite the silly propaganda pieces they put up on their state TV/newspaper, their psychological operation against SKorea is quite sophisticate and experienced. NKorea is just taking advantage of the fact that N and S Korea shared same blood. But it’s BS that NKorea only considers US as its main enemy. It considers SKorea as it main enemy too.[/quote]
Dba: North Korea considers South Korea a foe, obviously, but the US is its main enemy and North Korea’s entire military posture is built around a “total war” operations plan designed to bleed US forces white and force our exit from the Korean peninsula.
While I certainly credit Kim and the North for being masters of propaganda, their war plans speak volumes, too.
As to your notion that China wouldn’t care too much if the North imploded and they were suddenly flooded with refugees: Not true. China has made no secret of their fears/concerns of both a unified Korea and the possibility of massive numbers of North Koreans seeking aid. China lacks the homogeneity the world credits them for, especially in terms of ethnicity and culture and there is a longstanding sense of enmity between China and Korea, despite their sharing communist credentials.
China is also struggling with maintaining control over various segments of their population and adding several million mouths to feed, along with the attendant social upheaval, wouldn’t be good.
To China, social “dislocation” is to be avoided at all costs, hence the government’s constant and consistent exhortations and admonishments regarding “harmony”, “togetherness” and “unity”. Their actions against Falun Gong, the Uighurs and the Tibetan/Nepalese “policies” clearly illustrate how fearful China is of both outside influences and/or those things that disrupt or dilute the party line.[/quote]
NK’s plan to bleed US white to force it out may have made some sense 1 or 2 decades ago but not any more. As I said earlier, it’s pretty remote possibility that in one on one fight between NK and SK armed forces NK would prevail. It will just take longer and bloodier but SK will prevail. NK’s ‘war plan’ isn’t a viable one any more. NK won’t get the kind of support Vietnam got from China/Russia. China would lose more than gain by supporting NK actively in a case of another Korean war…
I didn’t mean to imply China doesn’t care whether NK implodes. They care as much as to the point that they want to keep NK as a useful pin to prick USA to annoy/distract USA. However it’s very unlikely China will allow millions of NK folks to cross the Yalu River into China to the point where it will threaten stability of China. Maybe a few thousands or more but may get in. As soon as NK implodes for some reason, China will pretty much seal the border between China/NK. China recently moved up a few Infantry Divisions to China/NK
June 9, 2009 at 2:31 PM #413018Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=dbapig][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
It’s also interesting to note that North Korea does not consider South Korea it’s main foe: The US holds that role. South Korea considers North Korea their main enemy, but not vice versa.Either way, a second Korean War would be devastating and I don’t doubt that we’d see WMD and even nukes if Kim had them in deployable fashion. I don’t seriously think he wants war, especially because he knows the final outcome, but it’s a convenient bargaining chip/tool for him to use.
[/quote]it’s quite late but I must comment on this statement that NKorea doesn’t consider SKorea as its main enemy quite irks me. That idea is actually a very clever piece of propaganda NKorea has been spreading for a very long time. Despite the silly propaganda pieces they put up on their state TV/newspaper, their psychological operation against SKorea is quite sophisticate and experienced. NKorea is just taking advantage of the fact that N and S Korea shared same blood. But it’s BS that NKorea only considers US as its main enemy. It considers SKorea as it main enemy too.[/quote]
Dba: North Korea considers South Korea a foe, obviously, but the US is its main enemy and North Korea’s entire military posture is built around a “total war” operations plan designed to bleed US forces white and force our exit from the Korean peninsula.
While I certainly credit Kim and the North for being masters of propaganda, their war plans speak volumes, too.
As to your notion that China wouldn’t care too much if the North imploded and they were suddenly flooded with refugees: Not true. China has made no secret of their fears/concerns of both a unified Korea and the possibility of massive numbers of North Koreans seeking aid. China lacks the homogeneity the world credits them for, especially in terms of ethnicity and culture and there is a longstanding sense of enmity between China and Korea, despite their sharing communist credentials.
China is also struggling with maintaining control over various segments of their population and adding several million mouths to feed, along with the attendant social upheaval, wouldn’t be good.
To China, social “dislocation” is to be avoided at all costs, hence the government’s constant and consistent exhortations and admonishments regarding “harmony”, “togetherness” and “unity”. Their actions against Falun Gong, the Uighurs and the Tibetan/Nepalese “policies” clearly illustrate how fearful China is of both outside influences and/or those things that disrupt or dilute the party line.[/quote]
NK’s plan to bleed US white to force it out may have made some sense 1 or 2 decades ago but not any more. As I said earlier, it’s pretty remote possibility that in one on one fight between NK and SK armed forces NK would prevail. It will just take longer and bloodier but SK will prevail. NK’s ‘war plan’ isn’t a viable one any more. NK won’t get the kind of support Vietnam got from China/Russia. China would lose more than gain by supporting NK actively in a case of another Korean war…
I didn’t mean to imply China doesn’t care whether NK implodes. They care as much as to the point that they want to keep NK as a useful pin to prick USA to annoy/distract USA. However it’s very unlikely China will allow millions of NK folks to cross the Yalu River into China to the point where it will threaten stability of China. Maybe a few thousands or more but may get in. As soon as NK implodes for some reason, China will pretty much seal the border between China/NK. China recently moved up a few Infantry Divisions to China/NK
June 9, 2009 at 2:31 PM #413264Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=dbapig][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
It’s also interesting to note that North Korea does not consider South Korea it’s main foe: The US holds that role. South Korea considers North Korea their main enemy, but not vice versa.Either way, a second Korean War would be devastating and I don’t doubt that we’d see WMD and even nukes if Kim had them in deployable fashion. I don’t seriously think he wants war, especially because he knows the final outcome, but it’s a convenient bargaining chip/tool for him to use.
[/quote]it’s quite late but I must comment on this statement that NKorea doesn’t consider SKorea as its main enemy quite irks me. That idea is actually a very clever piece of propaganda NKorea has been spreading for a very long time. Despite the silly propaganda pieces they put up on their state TV/newspaper, their psychological operation against SKorea is quite sophisticate and experienced. NKorea is just taking advantage of the fact that N and S Korea shared same blood. But it’s BS that NKorea only considers US as its main enemy. It considers SKorea as it main enemy too.[/quote]
Dba: North Korea considers South Korea a foe, obviously, but the US is its main enemy and North Korea’s entire military posture is built around a “total war” operations plan designed to bleed US forces white and force our exit from the Korean peninsula.
While I certainly credit Kim and the North for being masters of propaganda, their war plans speak volumes, too.
As to your notion that China wouldn’t care too much if the North imploded and they were suddenly flooded with refugees: Not true. China has made no secret of their fears/concerns of both a unified Korea and the possibility of massive numbers of North Koreans seeking aid. China lacks the homogeneity the world credits them for, especially in terms of ethnicity and culture and there is a longstanding sense of enmity between China and Korea, despite their sharing communist credentials.
China is also struggling with maintaining control over various segments of their population and adding several million mouths to feed, along with the attendant social upheaval, wouldn’t be good.
To China, social “dislocation” is to be avoided at all costs, hence the government’s constant and consistent exhortations and admonishments regarding “harmony”, “togetherness” and “unity”. Their actions against Falun Gong, the Uighurs and the Tibetan/Nepalese “policies” clearly illustrate how fearful China is of both outside influences and/or those things that disrupt or dilute the party line.[/quote]
NK’s plan to bleed US white to force it out may have made some sense 1 or 2 decades ago but not any more. As I said earlier, it’s pretty remote possibility that in one on one fight between NK and SK armed forces NK would prevail. It will just take longer and bloodier but SK will prevail. NK’s ‘war plan’ isn’t a viable one any more. NK won’t get the kind of support Vietnam got from China/Russia. China would lose more than gain by supporting NK actively in a case of another Korean war…
I didn’t mean to imply China doesn’t care whether NK implodes. They care as much as to the point that they want to keep NK as a useful pin to prick USA to annoy/distract USA. However it’s very unlikely China will allow millions of NK folks to cross the Yalu River into China to the point where it will threaten stability of China. Maybe a few thousands or more but may get in. As soon as NK implodes for some reason, China will pretty much seal the border between China/NK. China recently moved up a few Infantry Divisions to China/NK
June 9, 2009 at 2:31 PM #413328Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=dbapig][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
It’s also interesting to note that North Korea does not consider South Korea it’s main foe: The US holds that role. South Korea considers North Korea their main enemy, but not vice versa.Either way, a second Korean War would be devastating and I don’t doubt that we’d see WMD and even nukes if Kim had them in deployable fashion. I don’t seriously think he wants war, especially because he knows the final outcome, but it’s a convenient bargaining chip/tool for him to use.
[/quote]it’s quite late but I must comment on this statement that NKorea doesn’t consider SKorea as its main enemy quite irks me. That idea is actually a very clever piece of propaganda NKorea has been spreading for a very long time. Despite the silly propaganda pieces they put up on their state TV/newspaper, their psychological operation against SKorea is quite sophisticate and experienced. NKorea is just taking advantage of the fact that N and S Korea shared same blood. But it’s BS that NKorea only considers US as its main enemy. It considers SKorea as it main enemy too.[/quote]
Dba: North Korea considers South Korea a foe, obviously, but the US is its main enemy and North Korea’s entire military posture is built around a “total war” operations plan designed to bleed US forces white and force our exit from the Korean peninsula.
While I certainly credit Kim and the North for being masters of propaganda, their war plans speak volumes, too.
As to your notion that China wouldn’t care too much if the North imploded and they were suddenly flooded with refugees: Not true. China has made no secret of their fears/concerns of both a unified Korea and the possibility of massive numbers of North Koreans seeking aid. China lacks the homogeneity the world credits them for, especially in terms of ethnicity and culture and there is a longstanding sense of enmity between China and Korea, despite their sharing communist credentials.
China is also struggling with maintaining control over various segments of their population and adding several million mouths to feed, along with the attendant social upheaval, wouldn’t be good.
To China, social “dislocation” is to be avoided at all costs, hence the government’s constant and consistent exhortations and admonishments regarding “harmony”, “togetherness” and “unity”. Their actions against Falun Gong, the Uighurs and the Tibetan/Nepalese “policies” clearly illustrate how fearful China is of both outside influences and/or those things that disrupt or dilute the party line.[/quote]
NK’s plan to bleed US white to force it out may have made some sense 1 or 2 decades ago but not any more. As I said earlier, it’s pretty remote possibility that in one on one fight between NK and SK armed forces NK would prevail. It will just take longer and bloodier but SK will prevail. NK’s ‘war plan’ isn’t a viable one any more. NK won’t get the kind of support Vietnam got from China/Russia. China would lose more than gain by supporting NK actively in a case of another Korean war…
I didn’t mean to imply China doesn’t care whether NK implodes. They care as much as to the point that they want to keep NK as a useful pin to prick USA to annoy/distract USA. However it’s very unlikely China will allow millions of NK folks to cross the Yalu River into China to the point where it will threaten stability of China. Maybe a few thousands or more but may get in. As soon as NK implodes for some reason, China will pretty much seal the border between China/NK. China recently moved up a few Infantry Divisions to China/NK
June 9, 2009 at 2:31 PM #413477Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=dbapig][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
It’s also interesting to note that North Korea does not consider South Korea it’s main foe: The US holds that role. South Korea considers North Korea their main enemy, but not vice versa.Either way, a second Korean War would be devastating and I don’t doubt that we’d see WMD and even nukes if Kim had them in deployable fashion. I don’t seriously think he wants war, especially because he knows the final outcome, but it’s a convenient bargaining chip/tool for him to use.
[/quote]it’s quite late but I must comment on this statement that NKorea doesn’t consider SKorea as its main enemy quite irks me. That idea is actually a very clever piece of propaganda NKorea has been spreading for a very long time. Despite the silly propaganda pieces they put up on their state TV/newspaper, their psychological operation against SKorea is quite sophisticate and experienced. NKorea is just taking advantage of the fact that N and S Korea shared same blood. But it’s BS that NKorea only considers US as its main enemy. It considers SKorea as it main enemy too.[/quote]
Dba: North Korea considers South Korea a foe, obviously, but the US is its main enemy and North Korea’s entire military posture is built around a “total war” operations plan designed to bleed US forces white and force our exit from the Korean peninsula.
While I certainly credit Kim and the North for being masters of propaganda, their war plans speak volumes, too.
As to your notion that China wouldn’t care too much if the North imploded and they were suddenly flooded with refugees: Not true. China has made no secret of their fears/concerns of both a unified Korea and the possibility of massive numbers of North Koreans seeking aid. China lacks the homogeneity the world credits them for, especially in terms of ethnicity and culture and there is a longstanding sense of enmity between China and Korea, despite their sharing communist credentials.
China is also struggling with maintaining control over various segments of their population and adding several million mouths to feed, along with the attendant social upheaval, wouldn’t be good.
To China, social “dislocation” is to be avoided at all costs, hence the government’s constant and consistent exhortations and admonishments regarding “harmony”, “togetherness” and “unity”. Their actions against Falun Gong, the Uighurs and the Tibetan/Nepalese “policies” clearly illustrate how fearful China is of both outside influences and/or those things that disrupt or dilute the party line.[/quote]
NK’s plan to bleed US white to force it out may have made some sense 1 or 2 decades ago but not any more. As I said earlier, it’s pretty remote possibility that in one on one fight between NK and SK armed forces NK would prevail. It will just take longer and bloodier but SK will prevail. NK’s ‘war plan’ isn’t a viable one any more. NK won’t get the kind of support Vietnam got from China/Russia. China would lose more than gain by supporting NK actively in a case of another Korean war…
I didn’t mean to imply China doesn’t care whether NK implodes. They care as much as to the point that they want to keep NK as a useful pin to prick USA to annoy/distract USA. However it’s very unlikely China will allow millions of NK folks to cross the Yalu River into China to the point where it will threaten stability of China. Maybe a few thousands or more but may get in. As soon as NK implodes for some reason, China will pretty much seal the border between China/NK. China recently moved up a few Infantry Divisions to China/NK
June 9, 2009 at 2:39 PM #412819Allan from Fallbrook
Participant[quote=dbapig][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Afx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.[/quote]
Kim of NK looks like he’s got bigger ones but actually he’s the most desperate one. His health is failing and he doesn’t have a succession plan in order. His army is rusting away…
[/quote]Dba: Everything about a Korean conflict is designed to negate American technological advantages: The terrain is Godawful and prevents a war of maneuver, which favors the current American “big iron” approach; NK has tons of cannon fodder to throw at us and a willingness to soak up casualties (and let’s be honest: America hates casualties); NK has the ability to deliver one hell of a first strike against Seoul and exact a propaganda victory at the outset; and, they really have nothing to lose.
During my time in the Army (1983 – 1988), we heard constantly from the USAF about “air superiority” and how it would turn the tide in the event of a Soviet/Combloc/Warsaw Pact invasion of Western Europe. However, our Oplans were a good deal more sanguine on the subject and forecast a more realistic “air superiority neutral” scenario.
A lot of the talking heads opine that American air power would blunt or even turn back a North Korean invasion. Well, check out how well air power functions in countries with really shitty terrain and low tech opponents (like Afghanistan). The reality is always different than the scenario.
I did three years of counterinsurgency work in Central America and I’ll tell you that air power and artillery don’t mean dick in those type of environments. It’s Balls and Bayonets and the mofo most willing to bleed, wins.
June 9, 2009 at 2:39 PM #413054Participant[quote=dbapig][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Afx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.[/quote]
Kim of NK looks like he’s got bigger ones but actually he’s the most desperate one. His health is failing and he doesn’t have a succession plan in order. His army is rusting away…
[/quote]Dba: Everything about a Korean conflict is designed to negate American technological advantages: The terrain is Godawful and prevents a war of maneuver, which favors the current American “big iron” approach; NK has tons of cannon fodder to throw at us and a willingness to soak up casualties (and let’s be honest: America hates casualties); NK has the ability to deliver one hell of a first strike against Seoul and exact a propaganda victory at the outset; and, they really have nothing to lose.
During my time in the Army (1983 – 1988), we heard constantly from the USAF about “air superiority” and how it would turn the tide in the event of a Soviet/Combloc/Warsaw Pact invasion of Western Europe. However, our Oplans were a good deal more sanguine on the subject and forecast a more realistic “air superiority neutral” scenario.
A lot of the talking heads opine that American air power would blunt or even turn back a North Korean invasion. Well, check out how well air power functions in countries with really shitty terrain and low tech opponents (like Afghanistan). The reality is always different than the scenario.
I did three years of counterinsurgency work in Central America and I’ll tell you that air power and artillery don’t mean dick in those type of environments. It’s Balls and Bayonets and the mofo most willing to bleed, wins.
June 9, 2009 at 2:39 PM #413300Participant[quote=dbapig][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Afx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.[/quote]
Kim of NK looks like he’s got bigger ones but actually he’s the most desperate one. His health is failing and he doesn’t have a succession plan in order. His army is rusting away…
[/quote]Dba: Everything about a Korean conflict is designed to negate American technological advantages: The terrain is Godawful and prevents a war of maneuver, which favors the current American “big iron” approach; NK has tons of cannon fodder to throw at us and a willingness to soak up casualties (and let’s be honest: America hates casualties); NK has the ability to deliver one hell of a first strike against Seoul and exact a propaganda victory at the outset; and, they really have nothing to lose.
During my time in the Army (1983 – 1988), we heard constantly from the USAF about “air superiority” and how it would turn the tide in the event of a Soviet/Combloc/Warsaw Pact invasion of Western Europe. However, our Oplans were a good deal more sanguine on the subject and forecast a more realistic “air superiority neutral” scenario.
A lot of the talking heads opine that American air power would blunt or even turn back a North Korean invasion. Well, check out how well air power functions in countries with really shitty terrain and low tech opponents (like Afghanistan). The reality is always different than the scenario.
I did three years of counterinsurgency work in Central America and I’ll tell you that air power and artillery don’t mean dick in those type of environments. It’s Balls and Bayonets and the mofo most willing to bleed, wins.
June 9, 2009 at 2:39 PM #413363Participant[quote=dbapig][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]Afx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.[/quote]
Kim of NK looks like he’s got bigger ones but actually he’s the most desperate one. His health is failing and he doesn’t have a succession plan in order. His army is rusting away…
[/quote]Dba: Everything about a Korean conflict is designed to negate American technological advantages: The terrain is Godawful and prevents a war of maneuver, which favors the current American “big iron” approach; NK has tons of cannon fodder to throw at us and a willingness to soak up casualties (and let’s be honest: America hates casualties); NK has the ability to deliver one hell of a first strike against Seoul and exact a propaganda victory at the outset; and, they really have nothing to lose.
During my time in the Army (1983 – 1988), we heard constantly from the USAF about “air superiority” and how it would turn the tide in the event of a Soviet/Combloc/Warsaw Pact invasion of Western Europe. However, our Oplans were a good deal more sanguine on the subject and forecast a more realistic “air superiority neutral” scenario.
A lot of the talking heads opine that American air power would blunt or even turn back a North Korean invasion. Well, check out how well air power functions in countries with really shitty terrain and low tech opponents (like Afghanistan). The reality is always different than the scenario.
I did three years of counterinsurgency work in Central America and I’ll tell you that air power and artillery don’t mean dick in those type of environments. It’s Balls and Bayonets and the mofo most willing to bleed, wins.
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