North County Coastal Market-Why so sticky?

[sdcellar]

[quote=AN][quote=sdcellar]
I’m also thinking that “normal” sales volume would be somewhere between the 1300 and 2000 figures.[/quote]
Why do you think that?[/quote]Read the post I just made, but I’ll go with gut feeling and the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle.

sdrealtor himself has suggested that sales “churn” increased during the bubble years.

What we need to unearth are annual resales per thousand homes by zip code and year. I’ll bet we could learn a lot from that.

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]Ah, I see what you’re saying now, but that also goes to my point that new home construction elevates interest in an area and helps pull resales along with it.

Makes sense, though, that annual sales volume should increase as an area grows (and I said as much earlier). So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural. We all agree that sales volume was skewed upward during the bubble years, don’t we?[/quote]
Yes, naturally, volume skewed upward during the bubble year. Which is why I’m a little confused that it didn’t “pull resales along with it”. “that annual sales volume should increase as an area grows”, it should but didn’t do it by “a lot”, or else we should see the sale average much more than ~2100 (300 more than 1998). The only explanation I can think of is new construction was enough to match the increase demand. But the drop in resale even after the increase in total volume makes a huge deal in my eyes.

Please explain: “So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural.”
How can something be normal yet not natural at the same time?

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]Ah, I see what you’re saying now, but that also goes to my point that new home construction elevates interest in an area and helps pull resales along with it.

Makes sense, though, that annual sales volume should increase as an area grows (and I said as much earlier). So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural. We all agree that sales volume was skewed upward during the bubble years, don’t we?[/quote]
Yes, naturally, volume skewed upward during the bubble year. Which is why I’m a little confused that it didn’t “pull resales along with it”. “that annual sales volume should increase as an area grows”, it should but didn’t do it by “a lot”, or else we should see the sale average much more than ~2100 (300 more than 1998). The only explanation I can think of is new construction was enough to match the increase demand. But the drop in resale even after the increase in total volume makes a huge deal in my eyes.

Please explain: “So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural.”
How can something be normal yet not natural at the same time?

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]Ah, I see what you’re saying now, but that also goes to my point that new home construction elevates interest in an area and helps pull resales along with it.

Makes sense, though, that annual sales volume should increase as an area grows (and I said as much earlier). So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural. We all agree that sales volume was skewed upward during the bubble years, don’t we?[/quote]
Yes, naturally, volume skewed upward during the bubble year. Which is why I’m a little confused that it didn’t “pull resales along with it”. “that annual sales volume should increase as an area grows”, it should but didn’t do it by “a lot”, or else we should see the sale average much more than ~2100 (300 more than 1998). The only explanation I can think of is new construction was enough to match the increase demand. But the drop in resale even after the increase in total volume makes a huge deal in my eyes.

Please explain: “So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural.”
How can something be normal yet not natural at the same time?

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]Ah, I see what you’re saying now, but that also goes to my point that new home construction elevates interest in an area and helps pull resales along with it.

Makes sense, though, that annual sales volume should increase as an area grows (and I said as much earlier). So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural. We all agree that sales volume was skewed upward during the bubble years, don’t we?[/quote]
Yes, naturally, volume skewed upward during the bubble year. Which is why I’m a little confused that it didn’t “pull resales along with it”. “that annual sales volume should increase as an area grows”, it should but didn’t do it by “a lot”, or else we should see the sale average much more than ~2100 (300 more than 1998). The only explanation I can think of is new construction was enough to match the increase demand. But the drop in resale even after the increase in total volume makes a huge deal in my eyes.

Please explain: “So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural.”
How can something be normal yet not natural at the same time?

[an]

[quote=sdcellar]Ah, I see what you’re saying now, but that also goes to my point that new home construction elevates interest in an area and helps pull resales along with it.

Makes sense, though, that annual sales volume should increase as an area grows (and I said as much earlier). So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural. We all agree that sales volume was skewed upward during the bubble years, don’t we?[/quote]
Yes, naturally, volume skewed upward during the bubble year. Which is why I’m a little confused that it didn’t “pull resales along with it”. “that annual sales volume should increase as an area grows”, it should but didn’t do it by “a lot”, or else we should see the sale average much more than ~2100 (300 more than 1998). The only explanation I can think of is new construction was enough to match the increase demand. But the drop in resale even after the increase in total volume makes a huge deal in my eyes.

Please explain: “So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural.”
How can something be normal yet not natural at the same time?

[sdcellar]

[quote=sdrealtor]People that own quality real estate here, particularly west of the 5 and moreso west of the 101 have a very hard time selling it even when they own it free and clear as many do. They recognize the scarcity of it and the unlikelihood they could ever get back what they let go of.[/quote]I don’t think you’ll ever get disagreement on this point (and certainly not from me), but you’d agree that for every half mile east you go, this phenomena fades, yeah? Prime real estate is prime real estate, and then there’s a whole lot of everything else, even in NCC.

[sdcellar]

[quote=sdrealtor]People that own quality real estate here, particularly west of the 5 and moreso west of the 101 have a very hard time selling it even when they own it free and clear as many do. They recognize the scarcity of it and the unlikelihood they could ever get back what they let go of.[/quote]I don’t think you’ll ever get disagreement on this point (and certainly not from me), but you’d agree that for every half mile east you go, this phenomena fades, yeah? Prime real estate is prime real estate, and then there’s a whole lot of everything else, even in NCC.

[sdcellar]

[quote=sdrealtor]People that own quality real estate here, particularly west of the 5 and moreso west of the 101 have a very hard time selling it even when they own it free and clear as many do. They recognize the scarcity of it and the unlikelihood they could ever get back what they let go of.[/quote]I don’t think you’ll ever get disagreement on this point (and certainly not from me), but you’d agree that for every half mile east you go, this phenomena fades, yeah? Prime real estate is prime real estate, and then there’s a whole lot of everything else, even in NCC.

[sdcellar]

[quote=sdrealtor]People that own quality real estate here, particularly west of the 5 and moreso west of the 101 have a very hard time selling it even when they own it free and clear as many do. They recognize the scarcity of it and the unlikelihood they could ever get back what they let go of.[/quote]I don’t think you’ll ever get disagreement on this point (and certainly not from me), but you’d agree that for every half mile east you go, this phenomena fades, yeah? Prime real estate is prime real estate, and then there’s a whole lot of everything else, even in NCC.

[sdcellar]

[quote=sdrealtor]People that own quality real estate here, particularly west of the 5 and moreso west of the 101 have a very hard time selling it even when they own it free and clear as many do. They recognize the scarcity of it and the unlikelihood they could ever get back what they let go of.[/quote]I don’t think you’ll ever get disagreement on this point (and certainly not from me), but you’d agree that for every half mile east you go, this phenomena fades, yeah? Prime real estate is prime real estate, and then there’s a whole lot of everything else, even in NCC.

[sdcellar]

[quote=AN]Please explain: “So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural.”
How can something be normal yet not natural at the same time?[/quote]Focus on the words “much” and “all”.

North county coastal as a population center grew in the past decade (moreso than say, Clairemont), so that would be normal (perhaps I should say explainable). The bubble was what most of us would consider unnatural and it affected NCC as much as it did any other part of the county.

[sdcellar]

[quote=AN]Please explain: “So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural.”
How can something be normal yet not natural at the same time?[/quote]Focus on the words “much” and “all”.

North county coastal as a population center grew in the past decade (moreso than say, Clairemont), so that would be normal (perhaps I should say explainable). The bubble was what most of us would consider unnatural and it affected NCC as much as it did any other part of the county.

[sdcellar]

[quote=AN]Please explain: “So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural.”
How can something be normal yet not natural at the same time?[/quote]Focus on the words “much” and “all”.

North county coastal as a population center grew in the past decade (moreso than say, Clairemont), so that would be normal (perhaps I should say explainable). The bubble was what most of us would consider unnatural and it affected NCC as much as it did any other part of the county.

[sdcellar]

[quote=AN]Please explain: “So, much of the growth is normal, but it would be unwise to assume it’s all natural.”
How can something be normal yet not natural at the same time?[/quote]Focus on the words “much” and “all”.

North county coastal as a population center grew in the past decade (moreso than say, Clairemont), so that would be normal (perhaps I should say explainable). The bubble was what most of us would consider unnatural and it affected NCC as much as it did any other part of the county.

[Author]

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