North County Coastal Market-Why so sticky?

[SD Realtor]

Pem that was a very good addition to the thread.

sdr two things:

“When I write things like this its just a bit of a wake up call for all the highly educated worker bees making 70 to 90K wondering how anyone can afford these prices. There are alot of people out there making alot more than you think.”

Yes you and I can say that over and over again but people do not like to hear that. Especially those in that category or a little higher.

Absolutely what I see at the auctions are much more in line with what you are saying as far as the number of homes going to trustee sale in the discussed category. Not even close. Being able to really see what actually goes to sale and what does not over the past 9 months has helped me to see what has happened but also what will happen.

Honestly the only hope for a major decline in the housing discussed here in this thread is for a major shock in interest rates.

[sdrealtor]

Eugene
You must have missed my mea culpa a few posts back already. I went back and found that low end detached in this area appreciated more than 50%. Bottom line is that was a small portion of my point. Incomes are way up and interest rates are way down which more than compensate for the price discrepancy. Even so, prices be damned, demand is piling up and I see it daily.

What I’d really like to see is an update on your website which hasnt been updated since November.

[sdrealtor]

Eugene
You must have missed my mea culpa a few posts back already. I went back and found that low end detached in this area appreciated more than 50%. Bottom line is that was a small portion of my point. Incomes are way up and interest rates are way down which more than compensate for the price discrepancy. Even so, prices be damned, demand is piling up and I see it daily.

What I’d really like to see is an update on your website which hasnt been updated since November.

[sdrealtor]

Eugene
You must have missed my mea culpa a few posts back already. I went back and found that low end detached in this area appreciated more than 50%. Bottom line is that was a small portion of my point. Incomes are way up and interest rates are way down which more than compensate for the price discrepancy. Even so, prices be damned, demand is piling up and I see it daily.

What I’d really like to see is an update on your website which hasnt been updated since November.

[sdrealtor]

Eugene
You must have missed my mea culpa a few posts back already. I went back and found that low end detached in this area appreciated more than 50%. Bottom line is that was a small portion of my point. Incomes are way up and interest rates are way down which more than compensate for the price discrepancy. Even so, prices be damned, demand is piling up and I see it daily.

What I’d really like to see is an update on your website which hasnt been updated since November.

[sdrealtor]

Eugene
You must have missed my mea culpa a few posts back already. I went back and found that low end detached in this area appreciated more than 50%. Bottom line is that was a small portion of my point. Incomes are way up and interest rates are way down which more than compensate for the price discrepancy. Even so, prices be damned, demand is piling up and I see it daily.

What I’d really like to see is an update on your website which hasnt been updated since November.

[CA renter]

Yes, sales are brisk **at the right price.** For those who overprice their homes, they are sitting without any offers for a long, long time.

Agree that the lack of sales is due to the lack of inventory, but we differ in opinion regarding the level of distress in this area. Many of those “upgraded” homes came courtesy of HELOCs and cash-out refis because people thought they would recoup the money spent on improvements…and then some. As most people know, you rarely get 100% back on improvements (there are a few particular exceptions to this rule, but they usually involve room additions/major reconfigurations, not granite countertops).

IMHO, the reason the higher end has not fallen as much yet is because the govt began intervening in the housing market right as the declines were about to hit the mid to higher-end homes. Declines come in waves, and go from the least desirable to the most desirable in a RE decline. We were about to get hit here until the Fed dropped rates in their “emergency” actions and then we got all the foreclosure moratoriums, loan mods, refis, etc.

What do you think would have happened to prices here if not for all the govt intervention? Personally, I think we’d be at 2001-2002 (nominal) levels by now. BTW, this isn’t just happening in coastal North County. The same pattern has been seen all across the country and around the world, which tells me this is not due to the fundamentals of a particular region, but rather due to monetary policy and govt intervention.

[CA renter]

Yes, sales are brisk **at the right price.** For those who overprice their homes, they are sitting without any offers for a long, long time.

Agree that the lack of sales is due to the lack of inventory, but we differ in opinion regarding the level of distress in this area. Many of those “upgraded” homes came courtesy of HELOCs and cash-out refis because people thought they would recoup the money spent on improvements…and then some. As most people know, you rarely get 100% back on improvements (there are a few particular exceptions to this rule, but they usually involve room additions/major reconfigurations, not granite countertops).

IMHO, the reason the higher end has not fallen as much yet is because the govt began intervening in the housing market right as the declines were about to hit the mid to higher-end homes. Declines come in waves, and go from the least desirable to the most desirable in a RE decline. We were about to get hit here until the Fed dropped rates in their “emergency” actions and then we got all the foreclosure moratoriums, loan mods, refis, etc.

What do you think would have happened to prices here if not for all the govt intervention? Personally, I think we’d be at 2001-2002 (nominal) levels by now. BTW, this isn’t just happening in coastal North County. The same pattern has been seen all across the country and around the world, which tells me this is not due to the fundamentals of a particular region, but rather due to monetary policy and govt intervention.

[CA renter]

Yes, sales are brisk **at the right price.** For those who overprice their homes, they are sitting without any offers for a long, long time.

Agree that the lack of sales is due to the lack of inventory, but we differ in opinion regarding the level of distress in this area. Many of those “upgraded” homes came courtesy of HELOCs and cash-out refis because people thought they would recoup the money spent on improvements…and then some. As most people know, you rarely get 100% back on improvements (there are a few particular exceptions to this rule, but they usually involve room additions/major reconfigurations, not granite countertops).

IMHO, the reason the higher end has not fallen as much yet is because the govt began intervening in the housing market right as the declines were about to hit the mid to higher-end homes. Declines come in waves, and go from the least desirable to the most desirable in a RE decline. We were about to get hit here until the Fed dropped rates in their “emergency” actions and then we got all the foreclosure moratoriums, loan mods, refis, etc.

What do you think would have happened to prices here if not for all the govt intervention? Personally, I think we’d be at 2001-2002 (nominal) levels by now. BTW, this isn’t just happening in coastal North County. The same pattern has been seen all across the country and around the world, which tells me this is not due to the fundamentals of a particular region, but rather due to monetary policy and govt intervention.

[CA renter]

Yes, sales are brisk **at the right price.** For those who overprice their homes, they are sitting without any offers for a long, long time.

Agree that the lack of sales is due to the lack of inventory, but we differ in opinion regarding the level of distress in this area. Many of those “upgraded” homes came courtesy of HELOCs and cash-out refis because people thought they would recoup the money spent on improvements…and then some. As most people know, you rarely get 100% back on improvements (there are a few particular exceptions to this rule, but they usually involve room additions/major reconfigurations, not granite countertops).

IMHO, the reason the higher end has not fallen as much yet is because the govt began intervening in the housing market right as the declines were about to hit the mid to higher-end homes. Declines come in waves, and go from the least desirable to the most desirable in a RE decline. We were about to get hit here until the Fed dropped rates in their “emergency” actions and then we got all the foreclosure moratoriums, loan mods, refis, etc.

What do you think would have happened to prices here if not for all the govt intervention? Personally, I think we’d be at 2001-2002 (nominal) levels by now. BTW, this isn’t just happening in coastal North County. The same pattern has been seen all across the country and around the world, which tells me this is not due to the fundamentals of a particular region, but rather due to monetary policy and govt intervention.

[CA renter]

Yes, sales are brisk **at the right price.** For those who overprice their homes, they are sitting without any offers for a long, long time.

Agree that the lack of sales is due to the lack of inventory, but we differ in opinion regarding the level of distress in this area. Many of those “upgraded” homes came courtesy of HELOCs and cash-out refis because people thought they would recoup the money spent on improvements…and then some. As most people know, you rarely get 100% back on improvements (there are a few particular exceptions to this rule, but they usually involve room additions/major reconfigurations, not granite countertops).

IMHO, the reason the higher end has not fallen as much yet is because the govt began intervening in the housing market right as the declines were about to hit the mid to higher-end homes. Declines come in waves, and go from the least desirable to the most desirable in a RE decline. We were about to get hit here until the Fed dropped rates in their “emergency” actions and then we got all the foreclosure moratoriums, loan mods, refis, etc.

What do you think would have happened to prices here if not for all the govt intervention? Personally, I think we’d be at 2001-2002 (nominal) levels by now. BTW, this isn’t just happening in coastal North County. The same pattern has been seen all across the country and around the world, which tells me this is not due to the fundamentals of a particular region, but rather due to monetary policy and govt intervention.

[CA renter]

Also, how many of those “multiple offers” are being submitted by a fairly small pool of well-qualified buyers. Of the bubble-sitters we know (including ourselves), potential buyers have multiple bids out at any given time. Today’s buyers are definitely smarter, as I see few of them wildly overbidding for these homes. They are much more willing to walk away from a transaction, and while a seller might see many offers, a lot of them are coming in well below list price.

[CA renter]

Also, how many of those “multiple offers” are being submitted by a fairly small pool of well-qualified buyers. Of the bubble-sitters we know (including ourselves), potential buyers have multiple bids out at any given time. Today’s buyers are definitely smarter, as I see few of them wildly overbidding for these homes. They are much more willing to walk away from a transaction, and while a seller might see many offers, a lot of them are coming in well below list price.

[CA renter]

Also, how many of those “multiple offers” are being submitted by a fairly small pool of well-qualified buyers. Of the bubble-sitters we know (including ourselves), potential buyers have multiple bids out at any given time. Today’s buyers are definitely smarter, as I see few of them wildly overbidding for these homes. They are much more willing to walk away from a transaction, and while a seller might see many offers, a lot of them are coming in well below list price.

[CA renter]

Also, how many of those “multiple offers” are being submitted by a fairly small pool of well-qualified buyers. Of the bubble-sitters we know (including ourselves), potential buyers have multiple bids out at any given time. Today’s buyers are definitely smarter, as I see few of them wildly overbidding for these homes. They are much more willing to walk away from a transaction, and while a seller might see many offers, a lot of them are coming in well below list price.

[Author]

Posts