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March 7, 2008 at 5:08 PM #166187March 7, 2008 at 5:08 PM #165776EconProfParticipant
BobS
The author of this article, Stephen Roach, known as “Dr. Doom” in the late 1970’s for his correct predictions of inflation, is spot-on. His parallels between Japan’s long real estate bubble and following deflation and our similar path cannot be ignored.
Looking back at Japan’s long slump, it is easy to see their policy failures in fixing the problem. Our current bubble deniers claim we are smarter now than the Japanese have been. The scary thing about our current situation, however, is that there may not be fixes–both monetary and fiscal policy tools won’t work. Stimulus may only aggravate inflation and weaken the dollar. Still, they will be tried by our politicians because they are expedient and show “They care”.
I believe the decline will continue at an accellerating pace, and the bottom will be when foreigners buy up US real estate in a massive way. The cheap dollar only makes it more attractive. At some low point, foreign buyers savvy enough and gutsy enough will act…there is already some evidence of this happening. Look for more to happen.March 7, 2008 at 5:08 PM #166093EconProfParticipantBobS
The author of this article, Stephen Roach, known as “Dr. Doom” in the late 1970’s for his correct predictions of inflation, is spot-on. His parallels between Japan’s long real estate bubble and following deflation and our similar path cannot be ignored.
Looking back at Japan’s long slump, it is easy to see their policy failures in fixing the problem. Our current bubble deniers claim we are smarter now than the Japanese have been. The scary thing about our current situation, however, is that there may not be fixes–both monetary and fiscal policy tools won’t work. Stimulus may only aggravate inflation and weaken the dollar. Still, they will be tried by our politicians because they are expedient and show “They care”.
I believe the decline will continue at an accellerating pace, and the bottom will be when foreigners buy up US real estate in a massive way. The cheap dollar only makes it more attractive. At some low point, foreign buyers savvy enough and gutsy enough will act…there is already some evidence of this happening. Look for more to happen.March 7, 2008 at 5:08 PM #166192EconProfParticipantBobS
The author of this article, Stephen Roach, known as “Dr. Doom” in the late 1970’s for his correct predictions of inflation, is spot-on. His parallels between Japan’s long real estate bubble and following deflation and our similar path cannot be ignored.
Looking back at Japan’s long slump, it is easy to see their policy failures in fixing the problem. Our current bubble deniers claim we are smarter now than the Japanese have been. The scary thing about our current situation, however, is that there may not be fixes–both monetary and fiscal policy tools won’t work. Stimulus may only aggravate inflation and weaken the dollar. Still, they will be tried by our politicians because they are expedient and show “They care”.
I believe the decline will continue at an accellerating pace, and the bottom will be when foreigners buy up US real estate in a massive way. The cheap dollar only makes it more attractive. At some low point, foreign buyers savvy enough and gutsy enough will act…there is already some evidence of this happening. Look for more to happen.March 7, 2008 at 5:08 PM #166100EconProfParticipantBobS
The author of this article, Stephen Roach, known as “Dr. Doom” in the late 1970’s for his correct predictions of inflation, is spot-on. His parallels between Japan’s long real estate bubble and following deflation and our similar path cannot be ignored.
Looking back at Japan’s long slump, it is easy to see their policy failures in fixing the problem. Our current bubble deniers claim we are smarter now than the Japanese have been. The scary thing about our current situation, however, is that there may not be fixes–both monetary and fiscal policy tools won’t work. Stimulus may only aggravate inflation and weaken the dollar. Still, they will be tried by our politicians because they are expedient and show “They care”.
I believe the decline will continue at an accellerating pace, and the bottom will be when foreigners buy up US real estate in a massive way. The cheap dollar only makes it more attractive. At some low point, foreign buyers savvy enough and gutsy enough will act…there is already some evidence of this happening. Look for more to happen.March 7, 2008 at 5:08 PM #166104EconProfParticipantBobS
The author of this article, Stephen Roach, known as “Dr. Doom” in the late 1970’s for his correct predictions of inflation, is spot-on. His parallels between Japan’s long real estate bubble and following deflation and our similar path cannot be ignored.
Looking back at Japan’s long slump, it is easy to see their policy failures in fixing the problem. Our current bubble deniers claim we are smarter now than the Japanese have been. The scary thing about our current situation, however, is that there may not be fixes–both monetary and fiscal policy tools won’t work. Stimulus may only aggravate inflation and weaken the dollar. Still, they will be tried by our politicians because they are expedient and show “They care”.
I believe the decline will continue at an accellerating pace, and the bottom will be when foreigners buy up US real estate in a massive way. The cheap dollar only makes it more attractive. At some low point, foreign buyers savvy enough and gutsy enough will act…there is already some evidence of this happening. Look for more to happen.March 7, 2008 at 5:10 PM #165781EconProfParticipantBobS
Sorry to double post. Gotta cut down on the expresso.March 7, 2008 at 5:10 PM #166197EconProfParticipantBobS
Sorry to double post. Gotta cut down on the expresso.March 7, 2008 at 5:10 PM #166109EconProfParticipantBobS
Sorry to double post. Gotta cut down on the expresso.March 7, 2008 at 5:10 PM #166105EconProfParticipantBobS
Sorry to double post. Gotta cut down on the expresso.March 7, 2008 at 5:10 PM #166098EconProfParticipantBobS
Sorry to double post. Gotta cut down on the expresso.March 7, 2008 at 6:15 PM #1661285yearwaiterParticipantGenerally we are in the process of making mistakes over happened mistakes. Then the question comes where the heck smart people behind and let this kind of situation happened. Wow now “US-Hey! the great” is kind of hard to spell even rather than live here.
5yearswaiter
March 7, 2008 at 6:15 PM #1661355yearwaiterParticipantGenerally we are in the process of making mistakes over happened mistakes. Then the question comes where the heck smart people behind and let this kind of situation happened. Wow now “US-Hey! the great” is kind of hard to spell even rather than live here.
5yearswaiter
March 7, 2008 at 6:15 PM #1661405yearwaiterParticipantGenerally we are in the process of making mistakes over happened mistakes. Then the question comes where the heck smart people behind and let this kind of situation happened. Wow now “US-Hey! the great” is kind of hard to spell even rather than live here.
5yearswaiter
March 7, 2008 at 6:15 PM #1658115yearwaiterParticipantGenerally we are in the process of making mistakes over happened mistakes. Then the question comes where the heck smart people behind and let this kind of situation happened. Wow now “US-Hey! the great” is kind of hard to spell even rather than live here.
5yearswaiter
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