Meredith Whitney Quote / Data Point

[davelj]

[quote=sdduuuude]Well, I was right about this:

[quote=sdduuuude]
I have a feeling I’m about to learn something …
[/quote]

So, is it a “wow” or a “hmmm” ?[/quote]

I have no idea. On the polar opposite side of the debate is Dick Bove:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-24/dick-bove-says-bank-stocks-may-quadruple-by-2012-update1-.html

Dick Bove is prone to hype, but he’s no dummy. And he’s been in the business a lot longer than Meredith Whitney. My bet is that neither of them is completely right and the answer is somewhere in the middle (as that’s how these things tend to be).

Meredith Whitney made a great early contrarian call with respect to housing and financials. My hat’s off to her. Then she got steamrolled by Reflexivity as a bunch of banks got recapitalized during a “senseless” rally – something she never saw coming. Meredith Whitney’s information and take on things is not so different from a lot of other analysts right now. The problem is that banks continue to raise capital at “inflated” prices which confounds her bearish predictions. The fundamentals are important. But Reflexivity is changing the fundamentals.

I have no real opinion on the Big Banks. They are so far outside of my sphere of operations (and understanding) that I don’t pay too much attention to them. I view them more as a curiosity than anything else.

[sdduuuude]

So, NPAs have doubled but I don’t know enough to understand if that means more houses could come on to the market than last year ?

Are you saying that I should assume that even though NPAs havre doubled, that reserves and chargeoffs could be such that these houses don’t make it to inventory ?

I’m not talking about bank stability here. I’m talking about the housing market.

[sdduuuude]

So, NPAs have doubled but I don’t know enough to understand if that means more houses could come on to the market than last year ?

Are you saying that I should assume that even though NPAs havre doubled, that reserves and chargeoffs could be such that these houses don’t make it to inventory ?

I’m not talking about bank stability here. I’m talking about the housing market.

[sdduuuude]

So, NPAs have doubled but I don’t know enough to understand if that means more houses could come on to the market than last year ?

Are you saying that I should assume that even though NPAs havre doubled, that reserves and chargeoffs could be such that these houses don’t make it to inventory ?

I’m not talking about bank stability here. I’m talking about the housing market.

[sdduuuude]

So, NPAs have doubled but I don’t know enough to understand if that means more houses could come on to the market than last year ?

Are you saying that I should assume that even though NPAs havre doubled, that reserves and chargeoffs could be such that these houses don’t make it to inventory ?

I’m not talking about bank stability here. I’m talking about the housing market.

[sdduuuude]

So, NPAs have doubled but I don’t know enough to understand if that means more houses could come on to the market than last year ?

Are you saying that I should assume that even though NPAs havre doubled, that reserves and chargeoffs could be such that these houses don’t make it to inventory ?

I’m not talking about bank stability here. I’m talking about the housing market.

[davelj]

[quote=sdduuuude]So, NPAs have doubled but I don’t know enough to understand if that means more houses could come on to the market than last year ?

Are you saying that I should assume that even though NPAs havre doubled, that reserves and chargeoffs could be such that these houses don’t make it to inventory ?

I’m not talking about bank stability here. I’m talking about the housing market.[/quote]

What you said was, and I quote, “1.5x all chargeoffs in the last 4 years! Wow. That aint good.”

And my point was that your comment in the absence of other data is meaningless, which it is.

If you had merely said, “Rising NPAs should lead to more houses coming onto the market,” then I would agree you 100%. Just to be clear.

[davelj]

[quote=sdduuuude]So, NPAs have doubled but I don’t know enough to understand if that means more houses could come on to the market than last year ?

Are you saying that I should assume that even though NPAs havre doubled, that reserves and chargeoffs could be such that these houses don’t make it to inventory ?

I’m not talking about bank stability here. I’m talking about the housing market.[/quote]

What you said was, and I quote, “1.5x all chargeoffs in the last 4 years! Wow. That aint good.”

And my point was that your comment in the absence of other data is meaningless, which it is.

If you had merely said, “Rising NPAs should lead to more houses coming onto the market,” then I would agree you 100%. Just to be clear.

[davelj]

[quote=sdduuuude]So, NPAs have doubled but I don’t know enough to understand if that means more houses could come on to the market than last year ?

Are you saying that I should assume that even though NPAs havre doubled, that reserves and chargeoffs could be such that these houses don’t make it to inventory ?

I’m not talking about bank stability here. I’m talking about the housing market.[/quote]

What you said was, and I quote, “1.5x all chargeoffs in the last 4 years! Wow. That aint good.”

And my point was that your comment in the absence of other data is meaningless, which it is.

If you had merely said, “Rising NPAs should lead to more houses coming onto the market,” then I would agree you 100%. Just to be clear.

[davelj]

[quote=sdduuuude]So, NPAs have doubled but I don’t know enough to understand if that means more houses could come on to the market than last year ?

Are you saying that I should assume that even though NPAs havre doubled, that reserves and chargeoffs could be such that these houses don’t make it to inventory ?

I’m not talking about bank stability here. I’m talking about the housing market.[/quote]

What you said was, and I quote, “1.5x all chargeoffs in the last 4 years! Wow. That aint good.”

And my point was that your comment in the absence of other data is meaningless, which it is.

If you had merely said, “Rising NPAs should lead to more houses coming onto the market,” then I would agree you 100%. Just to be clear.

[davelj]

[quote=sdduuuude]So, NPAs have doubled but I don’t know enough to understand if that means more houses could come on to the market than last year ?

Are you saying that I should assume that even though NPAs havre doubled, that reserves and chargeoffs could be such that these houses don’t make it to inventory ?

I’m not talking about bank stability here. I’m talking about the housing market.[/quote]

What you said was, and I quote, “1.5x all chargeoffs in the last 4 years! Wow. That aint good.”

And my point was that your comment in the absence of other data is meaningless, which it is.

If you had merely said, “Rising NPAs should lead to more houses coming onto the market,” then I would agree you 100%. Just to be clear.

[sdduuuude]

The other data is that it doubled since 2009.

Thought it was clear in the next sentence I was talking about the housing market:

‘When I write stuff like “yes, the housing market seems stable now, but it doesn’t jive with macro-economic conditions … ‘ this is what I mean.”

And with Meredith’s comments:

“That to me triggers another down leg in housing … ”

Had I started ranting about banks going under, I’d understand …

[sdduuuude]

The other data is that it doubled since 2009.

Thought it was clear in the next sentence I was talking about the housing market:

‘When I write stuff like “yes, the housing market seems stable now, but it doesn’t jive with macro-economic conditions … ‘ this is what I mean.”

And with Meredith’s comments:

“That to me triggers another down leg in housing … ”

Had I started ranting about banks going under, I’d understand …

[sdduuuude]

The other data is that it doubled since 2009.

Thought it was clear in the next sentence I was talking about the housing market:

‘When I write stuff like “yes, the housing market seems stable now, but it doesn’t jive with macro-economic conditions … ‘ this is what I mean.”

And with Meredith’s comments:

“That to me triggers another down leg in housing … ”

Had I started ranting about banks going under, I’d understand …

[sdduuuude]

The other data is that it doubled since 2009.

Thought it was clear in the next sentence I was talking about the housing market:

‘When I write stuff like “yes, the housing market seems stable now, but it doesn’t jive with macro-economic conditions … ‘ this is what I mean.”

And with Meredith’s comments:

“That to me triggers another down leg in housing … ”

Had I started ranting about banks going under, I’d understand …

[Author]

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