I’m out again

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=DataAgent]Me too. I’m about 50% cash right now. Just hedging my bets. I think the big gains have already been made for 2009.[/quote]

The stock market breadth indicator actually predicts a bull market ahead. I actually think the market will be strong for at least three months when companies stock for Christmas buying season. After relentless cut of inventory across board in recent months, that additional inventory alone would push the GDP higher. And market will normally react to short-term news rather than long term picture of the US economy. Otherwise, who would still be buying long term treasury at 4% right now?

[PatentGuy]

Carlsbadworker,

Unfortunately, a more realistic scenario is that we will have a consumption tax AND a convoluted income tax, with high marginal rates on “the wealthy” (if there are any left).

And, we won’t pay off the national debt no matter how much tax we collect, because we will always spend far more than we take in until we are finally cut-off by our creditors.

At most, Ron Paul could be a spoiler to keep the Republican candidate from being elected.

Oh well.

sdrealtor,

I was bummed that I did not divert all my equity funds to cash when you did (and I still have not done so), but so far no damage done. Ask me next week!

[PatentGuy]

Carlsbadworker,

Unfortunately, a more realistic scenario is that we will have a consumption tax AND a convoluted income tax, with high marginal rates on “the wealthy” (if there are any left).

And, we won’t pay off the national debt no matter how much tax we collect, because we will always spend far more than we take in until we are finally cut-off by our creditors.

At most, Ron Paul could be a spoiler to keep the Republican candidate from being elected.

Oh well.

sdrealtor,

I was bummed that I did not divert all my equity funds to cash when you did (and I still have not done so), but so far no damage done. Ask me next week!

[PatentGuy]

Carlsbadworker,

Unfortunately, a more realistic scenario is that we will have a consumption tax AND a convoluted income tax, with high marginal rates on “the wealthy” (if there are any left).

And, we won’t pay off the national debt no matter how much tax we collect, because we will always spend far more than we take in until we are finally cut-off by our creditors.

At most, Ron Paul could be a spoiler to keep the Republican candidate from being elected.

Oh well.

sdrealtor,

I was bummed that I did not divert all my equity funds to cash when you did (and I still have not done so), but so far no damage done. Ask me next week!

[PatentGuy]

Carlsbadworker,

Unfortunately, a more realistic scenario is that we will have a consumption tax AND a convoluted income tax, with high marginal rates on “the wealthy” (if there are any left).

And, we won’t pay off the national debt no matter how much tax we collect, because we will always spend far more than we take in until we are finally cut-off by our creditors.

At most, Ron Paul could be a spoiler to keep the Republican candidate from being elected.

Oh well.

sdrealtor,

I was bummed that I did not divert all my equity funds to cash when you did (and I still have not done so), but so far no damage done. Ask me next week!

[PatentGuy]

Carlsbadworker,

Unfortunately, a more realistic scenario is that we will have a consumption tax AND a convoluted income tax, with high marginal rates on “the wealthy” (if there are any left).

And, we won’t pay off the national debt no matter how much tax we collect, because we will always spend far more than we take in until we are finally cut-off by our creditors.

At most, Ron Paul could be a spoiler to keep the Republican candidate from being elected.

Oh well.

sdrealtor,

I was bummed that I did not divert all my equity funds to cash when you did (and I still have not done so), but so far no damage done. Ask me next week!

[Anonymous]

interesting thread. Good luck all on whatever your strategy might be. Going long on denial, that’s my favorite so far 🙂

Personally, im all in. Have been for 8 years. Never sold a stock. (non-IRA) Waiting for the longer play. Bought all in after the tech wreck and haven’t looked back since.

For the IRA recently rolled out of managed funds and bought inflation hedge. Mining. Farming. Power. Retirement conservative. Non retirement aggressive. All tech, in fact, all semiconductor.

Why?

Semiconductors are cyclical. For sure. Spent my whole career working in them. Extremely capital intensive and difficult to expand capacity within 12-18 months. Every decade, demand exceeds capacity at some point and, the fabs have loads of leverage on price. Moreover, a fab running at 100% capacity can easily make 5x the profit (not revenue mind you) of a 90% full fab.

Semiconductors are priced in $$ most the world over. The dollar is declining. ChIndia is still expanding and, if we do hit that sweet spot where demand exceeds supply, I want to be there. Semiconductor stocks can run 3-5x in 8 months. With the weak dollar, the export item, priced in $$ becomes sort of dollar inflation proof (with adjusted price increases).

Do I know that demand will increase? no, not really. I just know that it happens in cycles. I dont know when the next one will be. 8 years waiting. I can wait 8 more. For a 5x bump, it ends up being worthwhile.

Anyway, that’s my story and im sticking with it.

J

[Anonymous]

interesting thread. Good luck all on whatever your strategy might be. Going long on denial, that’s my favorite so far 🙂

Personally, im all in. Have been for 8 years. Never sold a stock. (non-IRA) Waiting for the longer play. Bought all in after the tech wreck and haven’t looked back since.

For the IRA recently rolled out of managed funds and bought inflation hedge. Mining. Farming. Power. Retirement conservative. Non retirement aggressive. All tech, in fact, all semiconductor.

Why?

Semiconductors are cyclical. For sure. Spent my whole career working in them. Extremely capital intensive and difficult to expand capacity within 12-18 months. Every decade, demand exceeds capacity at some point and, the fabs have loads of leverage on price. Moreover, a fab running at 100% capacity can easily make 5x the profit (not revenue mind you) of a 90% full fab.

Semiconductors are priced in $$ most the world over. The dollar is declining. ChIndia is still expanding and, if we do hit that sweet spot where demand exceeds supply, I want to be there. Semiconductor stocks can run 3-5x in 8 months. With the weak dollar, the export item, priced in $$ becomes sort of dollar inflation proof (with adjusted price increases).

Do I know that demand will increase? no, not really. I just know that it happens in cycles. I dont know when the next one will be. 8 years waiting. I can wait 8 more. For a 5x bump, it ends up being worthwhile.

Anyway, that’s my story and im sticking with it.

J

[Anonymous]

interesting thread. Good luck all on whatever your strategy might be. Going long on denial, that’s my favorite so far 🙂

Personally, im all in. Have been for 8 years. Never sold a stock. (non-IRA) Waiting for the longer play. Bought all in after the tech wreck and haven’t looked back since.

For the IRA recently rolled out of managed funds and bought inflation hedge. Mining. Farming. Power. Retirement conservative. Non retirement aggressive. All tech, in fact, all semiconductor.

Why?

Semiconductors are cyclical. For sure. Spent my whole career working in them. Extremely capital intensive and difficult to expand capacity within 12-18 months. Every decade, demand exceeds capacity at some point and, the fabs have loads of leverage on price. Moreover, a fab running at 100% capacity can easily make 5x the profit (not revenue mind you) of a 90% full fab.

Semiconductors are priced in $$ most the world over. The dollar is declining. ChIndia is still expanding and, if we do hit that sweet spot where demand exceeds supply, I want to be there. Semiconductor stocks can run 3-5x in 8 months. With the weak dollar, the export item, priced in $$ becomes sort of dollar inflation proof (with adjusted price increases).

Do I know that demand will increase? no, not really. I just know that it happens in cycles. I dont know when the next one will be. 8 years waiting. I can wait 8 more. For a 5x bump, it ends up being worthwhile.

Anyway, that’s my story and im sticking with it.

J

[Anonymous]

interesting thread. Good luck all on whatever your strategy might be. Going long on denial, that’s my favorite so far 🙂

Personally, im all in. Have been for 8 years. Never sold a stock. (non-IRA) Waiting for the longer play. Bought all in after the tech wreck and haven’t looked back since.

For the IRA recently rolled out of managed funds and bought inflation hedge. Mining. Farming. Power. Retirement conservative. Non retirement aggressive. All tech, in fact, all semiconductor.

Why?

Semiconductors are cyclical. For sure. Spent my whole career working in them. Extremely capital intensive and difficult to expand capacity within 12-18 months. Every decade, demand exceeds capacity at some point and, the fabs have loads of leverage on price. Moreover, a fab running at 100% capacity can easily make 5x the profit (not revenue mind you) of a 90% full fab.

Semiconductors are priced in $$ most the world over. The dollar is declining. ChIndia is still expanding and, if we do hit that sweet spot where demand exceeds supply, I want to be there. Semiconductor stocks can run 3-5x in 8 months. With the weak dollar, the export item, priced in $$ becomes sort of dollar inflation proof (with adjusted price increases).

Do I know that demand will increase? no, not really. I just know that it happens in cycles. I dont know when the next one will be. 8 years waiting. I can wait 8 more. For a 5x bump, it ends up being worthwhile.

Anyway, that’s my story and im sticking with it.

J

[Anonymous]

interesting thread. Good luck all on whatever your strategy might be. Going long on denial, that’s my favorite so far 🙂

Personally, im all in. Have been for 8 years. Never sold a stock. (non-IRA) Waiting for the longer play. Bought all in after the tech wreck and haven’t looked back since.

For the IRA recently rolled out of managed funds and bought inflation hedge. Mining. Farming. Power. Retirement conservative. Non retirement aggressive. All tech, in fact, all semiconductor.

Why?

Semiconductors are cyclical. For sure. Spent my whole career working in them. Extremely capital intensive and difficult to expand capacity within 12-18 months. Every decade, demand exceeds capacity at some point and, the fabs have loads of leverage on price. Moreover, a fab running at 100% capacity can easily make 5x the profit (not revenue mind you) of a 90% full fab.

Semiconductors are priced in $$ most the world over. The dollar is declining. ChIndia is still expanding and, if we do hit that sweet spot where demand exceeds supply, I want to be there. Semiconductor stocks can run 3-5x in 8 months. With the weak dollar, the export item, priced in $$ becomes sort of dollar inflation proof (with adjusted price increases).

Do I know that demand will increase? no, not really. I just know that it happens in cycles. I dont know when the next one will be. 8 years waiting. I can wait 8 more. For a 5x bump, it ends up being worthwhile.

Anyway, that’s my story and im sticking with it.

J

[Author]

Posts