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barnaby33.
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August 25, 2010 at 3:04 PM #597339August 25, 2010 at 4:41 PM #596321
sdrealtor
ParticipantFunny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.
It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.
August 25, 2010 at 4:41 PM #596414ParticipantFunny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.
It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.
August 25, 2010 at 4:41 PM #596953ParticipantFunny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.
It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.
August 25, 2010 at 4:41 PM #597062ParticipantFunny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.
It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.
August 25, 2010 at 4:41 PM #597380ParticipantFunny, I consider myself to be very pragmatic and very much a realist also. The difference is my expectations have REALLY happened proving me to be a realist after all.
It is very easy to get caught in a negative psychological death spin. The “government and ignorant public” have been kicking the can forever. Its the American way. The whistle through the graveyard while the most pessimistic predict that dire consequences are a certainty. The reality typically lies somewhere in teh middle and that is where the realists truly live.
August 25, 2010 at 4:56 PM #596336Anonymous
GuestJust because your expectations have proven to be correct today doesn’t mean you were spot on. This is only a snapshot in time. The game is still going.
It’s as if you made a bet on a football game and your team was leading by a field goal at halftime. Do you claim you are the winner? Of course not, the game hasn’t finished yet.
In terms of the real estate crash we are just at halftime so stop patting yourself on the back that you were right..
By the way, I am not predicting doom and gloom. Just that the RE market (including SD) still has a lot of downside correction ahead. Whether this will eventually lead to mass panic and chaos in the streets I don’t know and don’t care. It is simply a mathematical certainty that substantial further drop in prices will happen.
August 25, 2010 at 4:56 PM #596429GuestJust because your expectations have proven to be correct today doesn’t mean you were spot on. This is only a snapshot in time. The game is still going.
It’s as if you made a bet on a football game and your team was leading by a field goal at halftime. Do you claim you are the winner? Of course not, the game hasn’t finished yet.
In terms of the real estate crash we are just at halftime so stop patting yourself on the back that you were right..
By the way, I am not predicting doom and gloom. Just that the RE market (including SD) still has a lot of downside correction ahead. Whether this will eventually lead to mass panic and chaos in the streets I don’t know and don’t care. It is simply a mathematical certainty that substantial further drop in prices will happen.
August 25, 2010 at 4:56 PM #596968GuestJust because your expectations have proven to be correct today doesn’t mean you were spot on. This is only a snapshot in time. The game is still going.
It’s as if you made a bet on a football game and your team was leading by a field goal at halftime. Do you claim you are the winner? Of course not, the game hasn’t finished yet.
In terms of the real estate crash we are just at halftime so stop patting yourself on the back that you were right..
By the way, I am not predicting doom and gloom. Just that the RE market (including SD) still has a lot of downside correction ahead. Whether this will eventually lead to mass panic and chaos in the streets I don’t know and don’t care. It is simply a mathematical certainty that substantial further drop in prices will happen.
August 25, 2010 at 4:56 PM #597077GuestJust because your expectations have proven to be correct today doesn’t mean you were spot on. This is only a snapshot in time. The game is still going.
It’s as if you made a bet on a football game and your team was leading by a field goal at halftime. Do you claim you are the winner? Of course not, the game hasn’t finished yet.
In terms of the real estate crash we are just at halftime so stop patting yourself on the back that you were right..
By the way, I am not predicting doom and gloom. Just that the RE market (including SD) still has a lot of downside correction ahead. Whether this will eventually lead to mass panic and chaos in the streets I don’t know and don’t care. It is simply a mathematical certainty that substantial further drop in prices will happen.
August 25, 2010 at 4:56 PM #597396GuestJust because your expectations have proven to be correct today doesn’t mean you were spot on. This is only a snapshot in time. The game is still going.
It’s as if you made a bet on a football game and your team was leading by a field goal at halftime. Do you claim you are the winner? Of course not, the game hasn’t finished yet.
In terms of the real estate crash we are just at halftime so stop patting yourself on the back that you were right..
By the way, I am not predicting doom and gloom. Just that the RE market (including SD) still has a lot of downside correction ahead. Whether this will eventually lead to mass panic and chaos in the streets I don’t know and don’t care. It is simply a mathematical certainty that substantial further drop in prices will happen.
August 25, 2010 at 6:24 PM #596376CA renter
Participant[quote=UCGal]
People who bought pre-bubble are less likely to look at peak pricing as the “goal”.[/quote]Totally agree, UCGal, and this is the point I keep trying to make when folks claim that “sellers won’t sell until housing prices are back at 2005 levels.” That’s a total load of hogwash!
Lots of people didn’t cash-out/HELOC during the runup. A lot of people own their houses outright with a $40K cost basis. They couldn’t care less what houses were worth in 2005, because many of the old-timers knew it wasn’t real (I’ve talked to many long-time owners who didn’t think 2005 prices were real/sustainable, but they had no reason to sell their homes, as they were paid off or had very small mortgages and low tax rates). If they spent $40K on a house in 1972 and it’s now worth $600K, they will gladly take the money if they need/want to sell, even if it was “worth” $1MM when all the fraudulent loans were swamping the market.
This is a just as much of a “threat” to high prices as REOs, IMHO. While the govt can control what the banks do (much to my chagrin), they cannot control what legitimate owners do when they want to sell their homes.
It’s only bubble-buyers (and HELOC’ers) who think the world revolves around 2005 housing prices. They don’t like to acknowledge that the rest of the population isn’t as indebted as they are, and aren’t as dependent on housing prices going back up to 2005 “wishing price” levels.
August 25, 2010 at 6:24 PM #596469Participant[quote=UCGal]
People who bought pre-bubble are less likely to look at peak pricing as the “goal”.[/quote]Totally agree, UCGal, and this is the point I keep trying to make when folks claim that “sellers won’t sell until housing prices are back at 2005 levels.” That’s a total load of hogwash!
Lots of people didn’t cash-out/HELOC during the runup. A lot of people own their houses outright with a $40K cost basis. They couldn’t care less what houses were worth in 2005, because many of the old-timers knew it wasn’t real (I’ve talked to many long-time owners who didn’t think 2005 prices were real/sustainable, but they had no reason to sell their homes, as they were paid off or had very small mortgages and low tax rates). If they spent $40K on a house in 1972 and it’s now worth $600K, they will gladly take the money if they need/want to sell, even if it was “worth” $1MM when all the fraudulent loans were swamping the market.
This is a just as much of a “threat” to high prices as REOs, IMHO. While the govt can control what the banks do (much to my chagrin), they cannot control what legitimate owners do when they want to sell their homes.
It’s only bubble-buyers (and HELOC’ers) who think the world revolves around 2005 housing prices. They don’t like to acknowledge that the rest of the population isn’t as indebted as they are, and aren’t as dependent on housing prices going back up to 2005 “wishing price” levels.
August 25, 2010 at 6:24 PM #597008Participant[quote=UCGal]
People who bought pre-bubble are less likely to look at peak pricing as the “goal”.[/quote]Totally agree, UCGal, and this is the point I keep trying to make when folks claim that “sellers won’t sell until housing prices are back at 2005 levels.” That’s a total load of hogwash!
Lots of people didn’t cash-out/HELOC during the runup. A lot of people own their houses outright with a $40K cost basis. They couldn’t care less what houses were worth in 2005, because many of the old-timers knew it wasn’t real (I’ve talked to many long-time owners who didn’t think 2005 prices were real/sustainable, but they had no reason to sell their homes, as they were paid off or had very small mortgages and low tax rates). If they spent $40K on a house in 1972 and it’s now worth $600K, they will gladly take the money if they need/want to sell, even if it was “worth” $1MM when all the fraudulent loans were swamping the market.
This is a just as much of a “threat” to high prices as REOs, IMHO. While the govt can control what the banks do (much to my chagrin), they cannot control what legitimate owners do when they want to sell their homes.
It’s only bubble-buyers (and HELOC’ers) who think the world revolves around 2005 housing prices. They don’t like to acknowledge that the rest of the population isn’t as indebted as they are, and aren’t as dependent on housing prices going back up to 2005 “wishing price” levels.
August 25, 2010 at 6:24 PM #597117Participant[quote=UCGal]
People who bought pre-bubble are less likely to look at peak pricing as the “goal”.[/quote]Totally agree, UCGal, and this is the point I keep trying to make when folks claim that “sellers won’t sell until housing prices are back at 2005 levels.” That’s a total load of hogwash!
Lots of people didn’t cash-out/HELOC during the runup. A lot of people own their houses outright with a $40K cost basis. They couldn’t care less what houses were worth in 2005, because many of the old-timers knew it wasn’t real (I’ve talked to many long-time owners who didn’t think 2005 prices were real/sustainable, but they had no reason to sell their homes, as they were paid off or had very small mortgages and low tax rates). If they spent $40K on a house in 1972 and it’s now worth $600K, they will gladly take the money if they need/want to sell, even if it was “worth” $1MM when all the fraudulent loans were swamping the market.
This is a just as much of a “threat” to high prices as REOs, IMHO. While the govt can control what the banks do (much to my chagrin), they cannot control what legitimate owners do when they want to sell their homes.
It’s only bubble-buyers (and HELOC’ers) who think the world revolves around 2005 housing prices. They don’t like to acknowledge that the rest of the population isn’t as indebted as they are, and aren’t as dependent on housing prices going back up to 2005 “wishing price” levels.
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