First crack in the high end?

[SD Realtor]

I agree AN… It is grinder…Hopefully those of us who have hung in there this long will be rewarded as our patience is really being tested. I did foresee this behavior and I keep telling myself to chill out and put the blinders back on.

SD Realtor

[Sandi Egan]

Submitted by asianautica on April 9, 2008 – 9:55pm.

SD Realtor, unfortunately, that’s not surprising anymore. This spring, it seems like everything from 300k SFR in MM to $1M in CV, if price well, it’ll get multiple offers w/in hours if not days. At least now we’re finally start to see a lot of banks getting very aggressive in pricing.
Exactly!
These aggressive listings here are the first shots of the Great San Diegan Housing Pricing War. Banks, builders and FBs (along with a few decent folks) are going to fight in it.
And we do know who is going to win…

[Sandi Egan]

Submitted by asianautica on April 9, 2008 – 9:55pm.

SD Realtor, unfortunately, that’s not surprising anymore. This spring, it seems like everything from 300k SFR in MM to $1M in CV, if price well, it’ll get multiple offers w/in hours if not days. At least now we’re finally start to see a lot of banks getting very aggressive in pricing.
Exactly!
These aggressive listings here are the first shots of the Great San Diegan Housing Pricing War. Banks, builders and FBs (along with a few decent folks) are going to fight in it.
And we do know who is going to win…

[Sandi Egan]

Submitted by asianautica on April 9, 2008 – 9:55pm.

SD Realtor, unfortunately, that’s not surprising anymore. This spring, it seems like everything from 300k SFR in MM to $1M in CV, if price well, it’ll get multiple offers w/in hours if not days. At least now we’re finally start to see a lot of banks getting very aggressive in pricing.
Exactly!
These aggressive listings here are the first shots of the Great San Diegan Housing Pricing War. Banks, builders and FBs (along with a few decent folks) are going to fight in it.
And we do know who is going to win…

[Sandi Egan]

Submitted by asianautica on April 9, 2008 – 9:55pm.

SD Realtor, unfortunately, that’s not surprising anymore. This spring, it seems like everything from 300k SFR in MM to $1M in CV, if price well, it’ll get multiple offers w/in hours if not days. At least now we’re finally start to see a lot of banks getting very aggressive in pricing.
Exactly!
These aggressive listings here are the first shots of the Great San Diegan Housing Pricing War. Banks, builders and FBs (along with a few decent folks) are going to fight in it.
And we do know who is going to win…

[Sandi Egan]

Submitted by asianautica on April 9, 2008 – 9:55pm.

SD Realtor, unfortunately, that’s not surprising anymore. This spring, it seems like everything from 300k SFR in MM to $1M in CV, if price well, it’ll get multiple offers w/in hours if not days. At least now we’re finally start to see a lot of banks getting very aggressive in pricing.
Exactly!
These aggressive listings here are the first shots of the Great San Diegan Housing Pricing War. Banks, builders and FBs (along with a few decent folks) are going to fight in it.
And we do know who is going to win…

[SD Realtor]

Certainly if you define “winning” as finding the very bottom of the market and then buying then certainly those who wait the longest will indeed “win”.

However, many people also “win” by living a certain lifestyle and to them “winning” is defined by different parameters then it is for you.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Certainly if you define “winning” as finding the very bottom of the market and then buying then certainly those who wait the longest will indeed “win”.

However, many people also “win” by living a certain lifestyle and to them “winning” is defined by different parameters then it is for you.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Certainly if you define “winning” as finding the very bottom of the market and then buying then certainly those who wait the longest will indeed “win”.

However, many people also “win” by living a certain lifestyle and to them “winning” is defined by different parameters then it is for you.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Certainly if you define “winning” as finding the very bottom of the market and then buying then certainly those who wait the longest will indeed “win”.

However, many people also “win” by living a certain lifestyle and to them “winning” is defined by different parameters then it is for you.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Certainly if you define “winning” as finding the very bottom of the market and then buying then certainly those who wait the longest will indeed “win”.

However, many people also “win” by living a certain lifestyle and to them “winning” is defined by different parameters then it is for you.

SD Realtor

[Bugs]

It’s been kind of interesting to watch the trends in sentiment. Back in 2002 when I was watching the market pass the point of parity with the 1990 peak nobody contemplated the idea that we could go through another downturn. That’s when the “new paradigm” came out.

As 2003 progressed and prices really started passing all relationship to regional wage trends the lone voices were joined by the occasional skeptic. 2004 rolled around and that’s when Rich’s blog started – he had been watching this mess for a while and got to the point where he had to vent somewhere.

Rich’s blog gained steam in 2005 but sentiment was still divided. By the time 2006 rolled around the bears outnumbered the bulls, and by early 2007 most of the bulls left town.

Now it looks to be reversing. Those who came late and/or were conflicted seem to be getting ready to leave early. Those who started out back in 2004 with the anticipation that pricing would return to or overcorrect past the long term trendline seem to be holding their ground.

———–

Regardless of where you’re coming from, there’s no point in speculating where it should be. By definition, what should be….isn’t. The only thing that really matters is “what is”. And right now, “what is” consists of an oversupply of inventory with lots more “must-sell” sellers on the way, a weakening macro-economic base for the region and rapidly decreasing price strucures – starting from the outside and working its way in.

The high end is still subject to price compression. That won’t really start to happen in earnest until the second wave of ARM resets comes to town, which is still more than a year away.

Bottom line – watch the ratio of standing inventory vs. rate of sales for your target market and ignore the anecdotes about one or two transactions generating multiple offers. That, and recognize that the best deals probably won’t involve your dream house. That’s because the sucker who bought it at the peak is too emotionally involved to let it go at a loss of any type.

[Bugs]

It’s been kind of interesting to watch the trends in sentiment. Back in 2002 when I was watching the market pass the point of parity with the 1990 peak nobody contemplated the idea that we could go through another downturn. That’s when the “new paradigm” came out.

As 2003 progressed and prices really started passing all relationship to regional wage trends the lone voices were joined by the occasional skeptic. 2004 rolled around and that’s when Rich’s blog started – he had been watching this mess for a while and got to the point where he had to vent somewhere.

Rich’s blog gained steam in 2005 but sentiment was still divided. By the time 2006 rolled around the bears outnumbered the bulls, and by early 2007 most of the bulls left town.

Now it looks to be reversing. Those who came late and/or were conflicted seem to be getting ready to leave early. Those who started out back in 2004 with the anticipation that pricing would return to or overcorrect past the long term trendline seem to be holding their ground.

———–

Regardless of where you’re coming from, there’s no point in speculating where it should be. By definition, what should be….isn’t. The only thing that really matters is “what is”. And right now, “what is” consists of an oversupply of inventory with lots more “must-sell” sellers on the way, a weakening macro-economic base for the region and rapidly decreasing price strucures – starting from the outside and working its way in.

The high end is still subject to price compression. That won’t really start to happen in earnest until the second wave of ARM resets comes to town, which is still more than a year away.

Bottom line – watch the ratio of standing inventory vs. rate of sales for your target market and ignore the anecdotes about one or two transactions generating multiple offers. That, and recognize that the best deals probably won’t involve your dream house. That’s because the sucker who bought it at the peak is too emotionally involved to let it go at a loss of any type.

[Bugs]

It’s been kind of interesting to watch the trends in sentiment. Back in 2002 when I was watching the market pass the point of parity with the 1990 peak nobody contemplated the idea that we could go through another downturn. That’s when the “new paradigm” came out.

As 2003 progressed and prices really started passing all relationship to regional wage trends the lone voices were joined by the occasional skeptic. 2004 rolled around and that’s when Rich’s blog started – he had been watching this mess for a while and got to the point where he had to vent somewhere.

Rich’s blog gained steam in 2005 but sentiment was still divided. By the time 2006 rolled around the bears outnumbered the bulls, and by early 2007 most of the bulls left town.

Now it looks to be reversing. Those who came late and/or were conflicted seem to be getting ready to leave early. Those who started out back in 2004 with the anticipation that pricing would return to or overcorrect past the long term trendline seem to be holding their ground.

———–

Regardless of where you’re coming from, there’s no point in speculating where it should be. By definition, what should be….isn’t. The only thing that really matters is “what is”. And right now, “what is” consists of an oversupply of inventory with lots more “must-sell” sellers on the way, a weakening macro-economic base for the region and rapidly decreasing price strucures – starting from the outside and working its way in.

The high end is still subject to price compression. That won’t really start to happen in earnest until the second wave of ARM resets comes to town, which is still more than a year away.

Bottom line – watch the ratio of standing inventory vs. rate of sales for your target market and ignore the anecdotes about one or two transactions generating multiple offers. That, and recognize that the best deals probably won’t involve your dream house. That’s because the sucker who bought it at the peak is too emotionally involved to let it go at a loss of any type.

[Bugs]

It’s been kind of interesting to watch the trends in sentiment. Back in 2002 when I was watching the market pass the point of parity with the 1990 peak nobody contemplated the idea that we could go through another downturn. That’s when the “new paradigm” came out.

As 2003 progressed and prices really started passing all relationship to regional wage trends the lone voices were joined by the occasional skeptic. 2004 rolled around and that’s when Rich’s blog started – he had been watching this mess for a while and got to the point where he had to vent somewhere.

Rich’s blog gained steam in 2005 but sentiment was still divided. By the time 2006 rolled around the bears outnumbered the bulls, and by early 2007 most of the bulls left town.

Now it looks to be reversing. Those who came late and/or were conflicted seem to be getting ready to leave early. Those who started out back in 2004 with the anticipation that pricing would return to or overcorrect past the long term trendline seem to be holding their ground.

———–

Regardless of where you’re coming from, there’s no point in speculating where it should be. By definition, what should be….isn’t. The only thing that really matters is “what is”. And right now, “what is” consists of an oversupply of inventory with lots more “must-sell” sellers on the way, a weakening macro-economic base for the region and rapidly decreasing price strucures – starting from the outside and working its way in.

The high end is still subject to price compression. That won’t really start to happen in earnest until the second wave of ARM resets comes to town, which is still more than a year away.

Bottom line – watch the ratio of standing inventory vs. rate of sales for your target market and ignore the anecdotes about one or two transactions generating multiple offers. That, and recognize that the best deals probably won’t involve your dream house. That’s because the sucker who bought it at the peak is too emotionally involved to let it go at a loss of any type.

[Author]

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