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February 10, 2008 at 12:55 PM #151214February 10, 2008 at 2:50 PM #151249EugeneParticipant
My current position is that raising conforming limits for Fannie and Freddie is ultimately a good thing.
Here’s what will happen. Bond traders have no interest in holding MBS that mix high-risk jumbo loans with regular conforming loans. Freddie Mac CEO has already stated explicitly that they are going to isolate new loans in a separate pool. Fannie will have to do the same.
In 2005-2007, despite generous housing-to-income requirements of private lenders, most jumbos were stated income. How many people can really qualify for a new conforming jumbo? (Best case scenario, you’ll need 180K documented income to get a median house in 4S Ranch) My guess is, a minority. That minority will benefit from lower rates on jumbos. (Still, jumbo rates won’t come down all the way to conforming, some rate differential will remain) As an unintended consequence, private-label jumbos will suddenly become the 2008 version of subprime/Alt-A – all safe customers are gone to GSEs, the remaining ones are no good, either interest rates go up or the entire market disappears.
Net effect – fewer jumbos given to fewer customers, fewer houses sold in high-end areas.
February 10, 2008 at 2:50 PM #150889EugeneParticipantMy current position is that raising conforming limits for Fannie and Freddie is ultimately a good thing.
Here’s what will happen. Bond traders have no interest in holding MBS that mix high-risk jumbo loans with regular conforming loans. Freddie Mac CEO has already stated explicitly that they are going to isolate new loans in a separate pool. Fannie will have to do the same.
In 2005-2007, despite generous housing-to-income requirements of private lenders, most jumbos were stated income. How many people can really qualify for a new conforming jumbo? (Best case scenario, you’ll need 180K documented income to get a median house in 4S Ranch) My guess is, a minority. That minority will benefit from lower rates on jumbos. (Still, jumbo rates won’t come down all the way to conforming, some rate differential will remain) As an unintended consequence, private-label jumbos will suddenly become the 2008 version of subprime/Alt-A – all safe customers are gone to GSEs, the remaining ones are no good, either interest rates go up or the entire market disappears.
Net effect – fewer jumbos given to fewer customers, fewer houses sold in high-end areas.
February 10, 2008 at 2:50 PM #151152EugeneParticipantMy current position is that raising conforming limits for Fannie and Freddie is ultimately a good thing.
Here’s what will happen. Bond traders have no interest in holding MBS that mix high-risk jumbo loans with regular conforming loans. Freddie Mac CEO has already stated explicitly that they are going to isolate new loans in a separate pool. Fannie will have to do the same.
In 2005-2007, despite generous housing-to-income requirements of private lenders, most jumbos were stated income. How many people can really qualify for a new conforming jumbo? (Best case scenario, you’ll need 180K documented income to get a median house in 4S Ranch) My guess is, a minority. That minority will benefit from lower rates on jumbos. (Still, jumbo rates won’t come down all the way to conforming, some rate differential will remain) As an unintended consequence, private-label jumbos will suddenly become the 2008 version of subprime/Alt-A – all safe customers are gone to GSEs, the remaining ones are no good, either interest rates go up or the entire market disappears.
Net effect – fewer jumbos given to fewer customers, fewer houses sold in high-end areas.
February 10, 2008 at 2:50 PM #151158EugeneParticipantMy current position is that raising conforming limits for Fannie and Freddie is ultimately a good thing.
Here’s what will happen. Bond traders have no interest in holding MBS that mix high-risk jumbo loans with regular conforming loans. Freddie Mac CEO has already stated explicitly that they are going to isolate new loans in a separate pool. Fannie will have to do the same.
In 2005-2007, despite generous housing-to-income requirements of private lenders, most jumbos were stated income. How many people can really qualify for a new conforming jumbo? (Best case scenario, you’ll need 180K documented income to get a median house in 4S Ranch) My guess is, a minority. That minority will benefit from lower rates on jumbos. (Still, jumbo rates won’t come down all the way to conforming, some rate differential will remain) As an unintended consequence, private-label jumbos will suddenly become the 2008 version of subprime/Alt-A – all safe customers are gone to GSEs, the remaining ones are no good, either interest rates go up or the entire market disappears.
Net effect – fewer jumbos given to fewer customers, fewer houses sold in high-end areas.
February 10, 2008 at 2:50 PM #151176EugeneParticipantMy current position is that raising conforming limits for Fannie and Freddie is ultimately a good thing.
Here’s what will happen. Bond traders have no interest in holding MBS that mix high-risk jumbo loans with regular conforming loans. Freddie Mac CEO has already stated explicitly that they are going to isolate new loans in a separate pool. Fannie will have to do the same.
In 2005-2007, despite generous housing-to-income requirements of private lenders, most jumbos were stated income. How many people can really qualify for a new conforming jumbo? (Best case scenario, you’ll need 180K documented income to get a median house in 4S Ranch) My guess is, a minority. That minority will benefit from lower rates on jumbos. (Still, jumbo rates won’t come down all the way to conforming, some rate differential will remain) As an unintended consequence, private-label jumbos will suddenly become the 2008 version of subprime/Alt-A – all safe customers are gone to GSEs, the remaining ones are no good, either interest rates go up or the entire market disappears.
Net effect – fewer jumbos given to fewer customers, fewer houses sold in high-end areas.
February 10, 2008 at 2:51 PM #151206SD RealtorParticipantMake no mistakes about it, there will be more sales activity due to this stimulus whether we are talking FHA or the conforming limits. To be sure, to me this simply represents a further burden to the taxpayers…. it is just delaying the inevitable….we will pay though, it doesn’t matter how prudent we are.
SD Realtor
February 10, 2008 at 2:51 PM #151278SD RealtorParticipantMake no mistakes about it, there will be more sales activity due to this stimulus whether we are talking FHA or the conforming limits. To be sure, to me this simply represents a further burden to the taxpayers…. it is just delaying the inevitable….we will pay though, it doesn’t matter how prudent we are.
SD Realtor
February 10, 2008 at 2:51 PM #151182SD RealtorParticipantMake no mistakes about it, there will be more sales activity due to this stimulus whether we are talking FHA or the conforming limits. To be sure, to me this simply represents a further burden to the taxpayers…. it is just delaying the inevitable….we will pay though, it doesn’t matter how prudent we are.
SD Realtor
February 10, 2008 at 2:51 PM #151188SD RealtorParticipantMake no mistakes about it, there will be more sales activity due to this stimulus whether we are talking FHA or the conforming limits. To be sure, to me this simply represents a further burden to the taxpayers…. it is just delaying the inevitable….we will pay though, it doesn’t matter how prudent we are.
SD Realtor
February 10, 2008 at 2:51 PM #150918SD RealtorParticipantMake no mistakes about it, there will be more sales activity due to this stimulus whether we are talking FHA or the conforming limits. To be sure, to me this simply represents a further burden to the taxpayers…. it is just delaying the inevitable….we will pay though, it doesn’t matter how prudent we are.
SD Realtor
February 10, 2008 at 4:05 PM #151237EugeneParticipantMake no mistakes about it, there will be more sales activity due to this stimulus whether we are talking FHA or the conforming limits
A question …
What would be a typical interest rate on a $300,000 30-year fixed loan with housing-to-income ratio of 40%, or “stated income”? Compared with “conforming” (say, 25% housing-to-income)?
Let’s assume FICO 750 and 80% loan-to-value.
February 10, 2008 at 4:05 PM #151243EugeneParticipantMake no mistakes about it, there will be more sales activity due to this stimulus whether we are talking FHA or the conforming limits
A question …
What would be a typical interest rate on a $300,000 30-year fixed loan with housing-to-income ratio of 40%, or “stated income”? Compared with “conforming” (say, 25% housing-to-income)?
Let’s assume FICO 750 and 80% loan-to-value.
February 10, 2008 at 4:05 PM #150976EugeneParticipantMake no mistakes about it, there will be more sales activity due to this stimulus whether we are talking FHA or the conforming limits
A question …
What would be a typical interest rate on a $300,000 30-year fixed loan with housing-to-income ratio of 40%, or “stated income”? Compared with “conforming” (say, 25% housing-to-income)?
Let’s assume FICO 750 and 80% loan-to-value.
February 10, 2008 at 4:05 PM #151262EugeneParticipantMake no mistakes about it, there will be more sales activity due to this stimulus whether we are talking FHA or the conforming limits
A question …
What would be a typical interest rate on a $300,000 30-year fixed loan with housing-to-income ratio of 40%, or “stated income”? Compared with “conforming” (say, 25% housing-to-income)?
Let’s assume FICO 750 and 80% loan-to-value.
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