Buy now – the bidding war will drive prices up

[SHILOH]

“..You can rest assured that there will be a bunch of new regulations concerning buyer qualification, appraisals, etc. that will prevent this foolishness from happening again…” (EX-SD)

I can only hope.

If the dollar is being dumped and not accepted overseas — all I can think is Americans have really lost sight. Squandered our position as the richest nation. So much waste and consumption.

I feel very sad for the WW2 generation and disgusted with the boomers (greed) and even more disgusted w/ the thirty to twenty-something (entitlement) life-styles of the rich and famous group. I am basing this sour opinion on what I have observed and read. I am right in the midst of it but I don’t ascribe to it. Unfortunately for me, prudence may not pay off when the the regs become tighter.

But one thing is clear, capitalism (aka free market) requires A LOT of regulation since people cannot be counted on to act responsibly or do the right thing.

[donaldduckmoore]

I have noticed a couple of things that are going on in SD market. Inventory is definitely rising but prices of house are polarized. Those who do not need to sell in a hurry hold their prices very strongly. The influx of REOs definitely drive down the price, but the quality of a lot of REOs is in doubt and some of them might have been severely damaged. Price may be low in these kind of properties but who wants them?? House price in desirable areas held up very firmly although we have this housing bubble problem. Although I do not agree with the newsletter in many ways, one thing I do agree is that there are lots of buyers waiting for good deal. If the property is in good quality and priced right, there are flocks of bidders driving price up, good example is one on Sparren in 92129 (this is my favorite area). Rental market is not so bad provided that there are renters who were once owners. Loan is limited and there are plenty of restrictions on loan approval these days. Basically, if someone finds a good deal, they may not be able to find any good loan.

My prediction is home price will continue to go down but those properties may not be in good shape. Loans are more difficult to get that also drive down the price of houses because there are less qualified buyers. But once this mess is gone, a lot of buyers will be coming out to consume houses again. Hopefully by then, there will be more regulations to prevent people from driving up house prices.

[donaldduckmoore]

I have noticed a couple of things that are going on in SD market. Inventory is definitely rising but prices of house are polarized. Those who do not need to sell in a hurry hold their prices very strongly. The influx of REOs definitely drive down the price, but the quality of a lot of REOs is in doubt and some of them might have been severely damaged. Price may be low in these kind of properties but who wants them?? House price in desirable areas held up very firmly although we have this housing bubble problem. Although I do not agree with the newsletter in many ways, one thing I do agree is that there are lots of buyers waiting for good deal. If the property is in good quality and priced right, there are flocks of bidders driving price up, good example is one on Sparren in 92129 (this is my favorite area). Rental market is not so bad provided that there are renters who were once owners. Loan is limited and there are plenty of restrictions on loan approval these days. Basically, if someone finds a good deal, they may not be able to find any good loan.

My prediction is home price will continue to go down but those properties may not be in good shape. Loans are more difficult to get that also drive down the price of houses because there are less qualified buyers. But once this mess is gone, a lot of buyers will be coming out to consume houses again. Hopefully by then, there will be more regulations to prevent people from driving up house prices.

[donaldduckmoore]

I have noticed a couple of things that are going on in SD market. Inventory is definitely rising but prices of house are polarized. Those who do not need to sell in a hurry hold their prices very strongly. The influx of REOs definitely drive down the price, but the quality of a lot of REOs is in doubt and some of them might have been severely damaged. Price may be low in these kind of properties but who wants them?? House price in desirable areas held up very firmly although we have this housing bubble problem. Although I do not agree with the newsletter in many ways, one thing I do agree is that there are lots of buyers waiting for good deal. If the property is in good quality and priced right, there are flocks of bidders driving price up, good example is one on Sparren in 92129 (this is my favorite area). Rental market is not so bad provided that there are renters who were once owners. Loan is limited and there are plenty of restrictions on loan approval these days. Basically, if someone finds a good deal, they may not be able to find any good loan.

My prediction is home price will continue to go down but those properties may not be in good shape. Loans are more difficult to get that also drive down the price of houses because there are less qualified buyers. But once this mess is gone, a lot of buyers will be coming out to consume houses again. Hopefully by then, there will be more regulations to prevent people from driving up house prices.

[donaldduckmoore]

I have noticed a couple of things that are going on in SD market. Inventory is definitely rising but prices of house are polarized. Those who do not need to sell in a hurry hold their prices very strongly. The influx of REOs definitely drive down the price, but the quality of a lot of REOs is in doubt and some of them might have been severely damaged. Price may be low in these kind of properties but who wants them?? House price in desirable areas held up very firmly although we have this housing bubble problem. Although I do not agree with the newsletter in many ways, one thing I do agree is that there are lots of buyers waiting for good deal. If the property is in good quality and priced right, there are flocks of bidders driving price up, good example is one on Sparren in 92129 (this is my favorite area). Rental market is not so bad provided that there are renters who were once owners. Loan is limited and there are plenty of restrictions on loan approval these days. Basically, if someone finds a good deal, they may not be able to find any good loan.

My prediction is home price will continue to go down but those properties may not be in good shape. Loans are more difficult to get that also drive down the price of houses because there are less qualified buyers. But once this mess is gone, a lot of buyers will be coming out to consume houses again. Hopefully by then, there will be more regulations to prevent people from driving up house prices.

[donaldduckmoore]

I have noticed a couple of things that are going on in SD market. Inventory is definitely rising but prices of house are polarized. Those who do not need to sell in a hurry hold their prices very strongly. The influx of REOs definitely drive down the price, but the quality of a lot of REOs is in doubt and some of them might have been severely damaged. Price may be low in these kind of properties but who wants them?? House price in desirable areas held up very firmly although we have this housing bubble problem. Although I do not agree with the newsletter in many ways, one thing I do agree is that there are lots of buyers waiting for good deal. If the property is in good quality and priced right, there are flocks of bidders driving price up, good example is one on Sparren in 92129 (this is my favorite area). Rental market is not so bad provided that there are renters who were once owners. Loan is limited and there are plenty of restrictions on loan approval these days. Basically, if someone finds a good deal, they may not be able to find any good loan.

My prediction is home price will continue to go down but those properties may not be in good shape. Loans are more difficult to get that also drive down the price of houses because there are less qualified buyers. But once this mess is gone, a lot of buyers will be coming out to consume houses again. Hopefully by then, there will be more regulations to prevent people from driving up house prices.

[SHILOH]

Talking about trashed/damaged REOs…
In Indo:
“A new law goes into effect April 4 targeting abandoned homes with overgrown landscaping, stagnant pools and other eyesores that scream “empty” to squatters.

The law requires that abandoned properties be registered with the city and maintained. If not, the owner – usually the bank in foreclosed situations – could face fines or criminal prosecution…..In Chula Vista, where drug users, transients and evidence of unsupervised parties have been found in empty homes, a law requires lenders to register the foreclosed home with the city. They also must pay a $70 fee and are required to retain the services of a local property management company.”

Negligent owners in Indio could be fined (From Desert Sun 3/21)http://www.mydesert.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080321/NEWS01/803210392&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL

[SHILOH]

Talking about trashed/damaged REOs…
In Indo:
“A new law goes into effect April 4 targeting abandoned homes with overgrown landscaping, stagnant pools and other eyesores that scream “empty” to squatters.

The law requires that abandoned properties be registered with the city and maintained. If not, the owner – usually the bank in foreclosed situations – could face fines or criminal prosecution…..In Chula Vista, where drug users, transients and evidence of unsupervised parties have been found in empty homes, a law requires lenders to register the foreclosed home with the city. They also must pay a $70 fee and are required to retain the services of a local property management company.”

Negligent owners in Indio could be fined (From Desert Sun 3/21)http://www.mydesert.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080321/NEWS01/803210392&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL

[SHILOH]

Talking about trashed/damaged REOs…
In Indo:
“A new law goes into effect April 4 targeting abandoned homes with overgrown landscaping, stagnant pools and other eyesores that scream “empty” to squatters.

The law requires that abandoned properties be registered with the city and maintained. If not, the owner – usually the bank in foreclosed situations – could face fines or criminal prosecution…..In Chula Vista, where drug users, transients and evidence of unsupervised parties have been found in empty homes, a law requires lenders to register the foreclosed home with the city. They also must pay a $70 fee and are required to retain the services of a local property management company.”

Negligent owners in Indio could be fined (From Desert Sun 3/21)http://www.mydesert.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080321/NEWS01/803210392&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL

[SHILOH]

Talking about trashed/damaged REOs…
In Indo:
“A new law goes into effect April 4 targeting abandoned homes with overgrown landscaping, stagnant pools and other eyesores that scream “empty” to squatters.

The law requires that abandoned properties be registered with the city and maintained. If not, the owner – usually the bank in foreclosed situations – could face fines or criminal prosecution…..In Chula Vista, where drug users, transients and evidence of unsupervised parties have been found in empty homes, a law requires lenders to register the foreclosed home with the city. They also must pay a $70 fee and are required to retain the services of a local property management company.”

Negligent owners in Indio could be fined (From Desert Sun 3/21)http://www.mydesert.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080321/NEWS01/803210392&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL

[SHILOH]

Talking about trashed/damaged REOs…
In Indo:
“A new law goes into effect April 4 targeting abandoned homes with overgrown landscaping, stagnant pools and other eyesores that scream “empty” to squatters.

The law requires that abandoned properties be registered with the city and maintained. If not, the owner – usually the bank in foreclosed situations – could face fines or criminal prosecution…..In Chula Vista, where drug users, transients and evidence of unsupervised parties have been found in empty homes, a law requires lenders to register the foreclosed home with the city. They also must pay a $70 fee and are required to retain the services of a local property management company.”

Negligent owners in Indio could be fined (From Desert Sun 3/21)http://www.mydesert.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080321/NEWS01/803210392&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL

[DWCAP]

I dont follow the nicest areas of SD (CV,4S,RSF) mostly cause I have no interest in living there right now. Maybe when I am 45 or somthing, but seeing how that is well over a decade away, I wont worry about it.
I do however follow some of the middle to lower middle income areas (MM,Clarmt,poway) as this is where I would like to move and could in theory afford. As these places have dropped, that theory has turned better and better. I dont plan on buying for a while as I am still a single male in his late 20’s. I can wait for 2010, Hell, I WANT to wait till then.
I never understand people aversion to renting on this board. “Pride of Ownership” yada yada… I take pride in who I am and the positive I bring to those I care about. My house is shelter to me and does not come with a certificate of self worth. I drive a nearly 10 year old truck, for the same reason. It is paid, and gets me where I am going no slower or faster than your brand new car, but is a hell of alot cheaper.

Haveing had my little rant, I just want to question part of the origional posters letter. It states that the agent has shown nearly 30 properties in 2 weeks, all around 300k. Now this is more my price point than alot of people on this boards, so I read really carefully. It says that all 3 that they wanted to write offers on had multiple other offers and all above list. What about the other 27? You are telling me that 1/10th of the properties out there are priced correctly, and that 9/10ths are not? I am suppose to rush out and buy now cause of that?????? I know the suggestion is that all 30 have good offers, but if that was true why are sales so slow and inventory so high? No, it is alot more likey that 30 buyers are competing for the 3 well priced units, than 30 units have 3 buyers each.
Also, just cause there is an offer doesnt mean jack. I follow MM the closest, and nearly weekly I see houses go off the market with an offer just to come back on a few days later. There are still alot of people who want a house, and even more who lissen to this drivel spewed out in this kinda letter, but that doesnt mean they CAN buy. And just cause someone can buy, doesnt mean they want to buy THAT one. My response to the whole “foreign buyers” argument is that there are no oil sheiks being priced outa Santee or Oceanside. People would sell if they could, but they need someone who wants to buy and has $$$$. Not many people like that around.
Add into it all that this is suppose to be the busyist time of the year. Offers written in March become April and May’s sales. That is the time of year alot of people buy, so there should be buyers out there now. So what if sales inched up .5% from March to April? THAT IS NORMAL, not a sign of the bottom. Hell in reality that isnt normal, it shoulda gone up 5%. (I am making up my numbers, just for illistration). I know that when things are a factor of 10 off of normal, it isnt a healthy market. So I have no reason to worry. The real price drops will be in the fall and winter anyways, as even fewer buyers will be in the market then, and considering that repo’s are still rising, the inventory will be there in droves.
Also, I dont worry about Year of year stuff any more than understanding normal season variation. Sales are so slow now, that next year they will not be falling anymore. 2007 was not a good year for real estate. Why then when sales rise .00001% over last year, which was one of the worst on record, are we gonna call it an improving market?

And just one extra side note, the third quarter of 2008 is only 3 months away. Isnt that when we are suppose to be seeing our economy get better and sales rebound as repos drop? 13 weeks, and seeing is believeing. (My bet is the Q3 2008 rebound will more closely resemble the Q3 2007 rebound we heard all about. Oh wait, what happened in Q3 2007?????)

[DWCAP]

I dont follow the nicest areas of SD (CV,4S,RSF) mostly cause I have no interest in living there right now. Maybe when I am 45 or somthing, but seeing how that is well over a decade away, I wont worry about it.
I do however follow some of the middle to lower middle income areas (MM,Clarmt,poway) as this is where I would like to move and could in theory afford. As these places have dropped, that theory has turned better and better. I dont plan on buying for a while as I am still a single male in his late 20’s. I can wait for 2010, Hell, I WANT to wait till then.
I never understand people aversion to renting on this board. “Pride of Ownership” yada yada… I take pride in who I am and the positive I bring to those I care about. My house is shelter to me and does not come with a certificate of self worth. I drive a nearly 10 year old truck, for the same reason. It is paid, and gets me where I am going no slower or faster than your brand new car, but is a hell of alot cheaper.

Haveing had my little rant, I just want to question part of the origional posters letter. It states that the agent has shown nearly 30 properties in 2 weeks, all around 300k. Now this is more my price point than alot of people on this boards, so I read really carefully. It says that all 3 that they wanted to write offers on had multiple other offers and all above list. What about the other 27? You are telling me that 1/10th of the properties out there are priced correctly, and that 9/10ths are not? I am suppose to rush out and buy now cause of that?????? I know the suggestion is that all 30 have good offers, but if that was true why are sales so slow and inventory so high? No, it is alot more likey that 30 buyers are competing for the 3 well priced units, than 30 units have 3 buyers each.
Also, just cause there is an offer doesnt mean jack. I follow MM the closest, and nearly weekly I see houses go off the market with an offer just to come back on a few days later. There are still alot of people who want a house, and even more who lissen to this drivel spewed out in this kinda letter, but that doesnt mean they CAN buy. And just cause someone can buy, doesnt mean they want to buy THAT one. My response to the whole “foreign buyers” argument is that there are no oil sheiks being priced outa Santee or Oceanside. People would sell if they could, but they need someone who wants to buy and has $$$$. Not many people like that around.
Add into it all that this is suppose to be the busyist time of the year. Offers written in March become April and May’s sales. That is the time of year alot of people buy, so there should be buyers out there now. So what if sales inched up .5% from March to April? THAT IS NORMAL, not a sign of the bottom. Hell in reality that isnt normal, it shoulda gone up 5%. (I am making up my numbers, just for illistration). I know that when things are a factor of 10 off of normal, it isnt a healthy market. So I have no reason to worry. The real price drops will be in the fall and winter anyways, as even fewer buyers will be in the market then, and considering that repo’s are still rising, the inventory will be there in droves.
Also, I dont worry about Year of year stuff any more than understanding normal season variation. Sales are so slow now, that next year they will not be falling anymore. 2007 was not a good year for real estate. Why then when sales rise .00001% over last year, which was one of the worst on record, are we gonna call it an improving market?

And just one extra side note, the third quarter of 2008 is only 3 months away. Isnt that when we are suppose to be seeing our economy get better and sales rebound as repos drop? 13 weeks, and seeing is believeing. (My bet is the Q3 2008 rebound will more closely resemble the Q3 2007 rebound we heard all about. Oh wait, what happened in Q3 2007?????)

[DWCAP]

I dont follow the nicest areas of SD (CV,4S,RSF) mostly cause I have no interest in living there right now. Maybe when I am 45 or somthing, but seeing how that is well over a decade away, I wont worry about it.
I do however follow some of the middle to lower middle income areas (MM,Clarmt,poway) as this is where I would like to move and could in theory afford. As these places have dropped, that theory has turned better and better. I dont plan on buying for a while as I am still a single male in his late 20’s. I can wait for 2010, Hell, I WANT to wait till then.
I never understand people aversion to renting on this board. “Pride of Ownership” yada yada… I take pride in who I am and the positive I bring to those I care about. My house is shelter to me and does not come with a certificate of self worth. I drive a nearly 10 year old truck, for the same reason. It is paid, and gets me where I am going no slower or faster than your brand new car, but is a hell of alot cheaper.

Haveing had my little rant, I just want to question part of the origional posters letter. It states that the agent has shown nearly 30 properties in 2 weeks, all around 300k. Now this is more my price point than alot of people on this boards, so I read really carefully. It says that all 3 that they wanted to write offers on had multiple other offers and all above list. What about the other 27? You are telling me that 1/10th of the properties out there are priced correctly, and that 9/10ths are not? I am suppose to rush out and buy now cause of that?????? I know the suggestion is that all 30 have good offers, but if that was true why are sales so slow and inventory so high? No, it is alot more likey that 30 buyers are competing for the 3 well priced units, than 30 units have 3 buyers each.
Also, just cause there is an offer doesnt mean jack. I follow MM the closest, and nearly weekly I see houses go off the market with an offer just to come back on a few days later. There are still alot of people who want a house, and even more who lissen to this drivel spewed out in this kinda letter, but that doesnt mean they CAN buy. And just cause someone can buy, doesnt mean they want to buy THAT one. My response to the whole “foreign buyers” argument is that there are no oil sheiks being priced outa Santee or Oceanside. People would sell if they could, but they need someone who wants to buy and has $$$$. Not many people like that around.
Add into it all that this is suppose to be the busyist time of the year. Offers written in March become April and May’s sales. That is the time of year alot of people buy, so there should be buyers out there now. So what if sales inched up .5% from March to April? THAT IS NORMAL, not a sign of the bottom. Hell in reality that isnt normal, it shoulda gone up 5%. (I am making up my numbers, just for illistration). I know that when things are a factor of 10 off of normal, it isnt a healthy market. So I have no reason to worry. The real price drops will be in the fall and winter anyways, as even fewer buyers will be in the market then, and considering that repo’s are still rising, the inventory will be there in droves.
Also, I dont worry about Year of year stuff any more than understanding normal season variation. Sales are so slow now, that next year they will not be falling anymore. 2007 was not a good year for real estate. Why then when sales rise .00001% over last year, which was one of the worst on record, are we gonna call it an improving market?

And just one extra side note, the third quarter of 2008 is only 3 months away. Isnt that when we are suppose to be seeing our economy get better and sales rebound as repos drop? 13 weeks, and seeing is believeing. (My bet is the Q3 2008 rebound will more closely resemble the Q3 2007 rebound we heard all about. Oh wait, what happened in Q3 2007?????)

[DWCAP]

I dont follow the nicest areas of SD (CV,4S,RSF) mostly cause I have no interest in living there right now. Maybe when I am 45 or somthing, but seeing how that is well over a decade away, I wont worry about it.
I do however follow some of the middle to lower middle income areas (MM,Clarmt,poway) as this is where I would like to move and could in theory afford. As these places have dropped, that theory has turned better and better. I dont plan on buying for a while as I am still a single male in his late 20’s. I can wait for 2010, Hell, I WANT to wait till then.
I never understand people aversion to renting on this board. “Pride of Ownership” yada yada… I take pride in who I am and the positive I bring to those I care about. My house is shelter to me and does not come with a certificate of self worth. I drive a nearly 10 year old truck, for the same reason. It is paid, and gets me where I am going no slower or faster than your brand new car, but is a hell of alot cheaper.

Haveing had my little rant, I just want to question part of the origional posters letter. It states that the agent has shown nearly 30 properties in 2 weeks, all around 300k. Now this is more my price point than alot of people on this boards, so I read really carefully. It says that all 3 that they wanted to write offers on had multiple other offers and all above list. What about the other 27? You are telling me that 1/10th of the properties out there are priced correctly, and that 9/10ths are not? I am suppose to rush out and buy now cause of that?????? I know the suggestion is that all 30 have good offers, but if that was true why are sales so slow and inventory so high? No, it is alot more likey that 30 buyers are competing for the 3 well priced units, than 30 units have 3 buyers each.
Also, just cause there is an offer doesnt mean jack. I follow MM the closest, and nearly weekly I see houses go off the market with an offer just to come back on a few days later. There are still alot of people who want a house, and even more who lissen to this drivel spewed out in this kinda letter, but that doesnt mean they CAN buy. And just cause someone can buy, doesnt mean they want to buy THAT one. My response to the whole “foreign buyers” argument is that there are no oil sheiks being priced outa Santee or Oceanside. People would sell if they could, but they need someone who wants to buy and has $$$$. Not many people like that around.
Add into it all that this is suppose to be the busyist time of the year. Offers written in March become April and May’s sales. That is the time of year alot of people buy, so there should be buyers out there now. So what if sales inched up .5% from March to April? THAT IS NORMAL, not a sign of the bottom. Hell in reality that isnt normal, it shoulda gone up 5%. (I am making up my numbers, just for illistration). I know that when things are a factor of 10 off of normal, it isnt a healthy market. So I have no reason to worry. The real price drops will be in the fall and winter anyways, as even fewer buyers will be in the market then, and considering that repo’s are still rising, the inventory will be there in droves.
Also, I dont worry about Year of year stuff any more than understanding normal season variation. Sales are so slow now, that next year they will not be falling anymore. 2007 was not a good year for real estate. Why then when sales rise .00001% over last year, which was one of the worst on record, are we gonna call it an improving market?

And just one extra side note, the third quarter of 2008 is only 3 months away. Isnt that when we are suppose to be seeing our economy get better and sales rebound as repos drop? 13 weeks, and seeing is believeing. (My bet is the Q3 2008 rebound will more closely resemble the Q3 2007 rebound we heard all about. Oh wait, what happened in Q3 2007?????)

[Author]

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