BusinessWeek: Why housing could fall 25%

[robson]

[img_assist|nid=6384|title=Shiller Long Term House Index|desc=|link=node|align=center|width=466|height=300]

Pretty sure this has been shown here before, but I thought I would point out that it is now being displayed in the MSM.
The last time prices spiked like this-around 1895, they didn’t catch back up, adjusting for inflation, for about 95 years. At first I thought the argument that housing prices would never reach this point again seemed absurd. The data seems to say otherwise. Could very well be another 100 years before we’re above 2005 levels in Real dollars. Now that’s a longterm investment. Guess those 100 year mortgages Do make sense.

[jpinpb]

Gee. I guess I was lucky the last time around. It just seemed like for the last 30 years of watching real estate it goes up and comes down and goes back up again, etc. So I just naturally thought it would eventually in a few/several years go up again. 100 years !!!!

But they stopped making land 😉

I don’t feel in a hurry to buy now.

[jpinpb]

Gee. I guess I was lucky the last time around. It just seemed like for the last 30 years of watching real estate it goes up and comes down and goes back up again, etc. So I just naturally thought it would eventually in a few/several years go up again. 100 years !!!!

But they stopped making land 😉

I don’t feel in a hurry to buy now.

[jpinpb]

Gee. I guess I was lucky the last time around. It just seemed like for the last 30 years of watching real estate it goes up and comes down and goes back up again, etc. So I just naturally thought it would eventually in a few/several years go up again. 100 years !!!!

But they stopped making land 😉

I don’t feel in a hurry to buy now.

[jpinpb]

Gee. I guess I was lucky the last time around. It just seemed like for the last 30 years of watching real estate it goes up and comes down and goes back up again, etc. So I just naturally thought it would eventually in a few/several years go up again. 100 years !!!!

But they stopped making land 😉

I don’t feel in a hurry to buy now.

[jpinpb]

Gee. I guess I was lucky the last time around. It just seemed like for the last 30 years of watching real estate it goes up and comes down and goes back up again, etc. So I just naturally thought it would eventually in a few/several years go up again. 100 years !!!!

But they stopped making land 😉

I don’t feel in a hurry to buy now.

[kev374]

Are you of the belief this market will never recover?

Yes, in my opinion it’s highly unlikely that the market will ever recover within the next 25 years to the levels we have seen. This has been a great aberration that took the home price/income ratio to astronomical levels never seen in the history of the United States.

Facts:
– Income growth is negative due to global wage arbitrage

– Liquidity is gone, Fed just cannot keep inflating money

– Loose lending is no more and is not coming back!

– Cost of living is going up putting even more pressure on home affordability, contrary to what many think, inflation negatively impacts home prices not positively. If your groceries, oil, transporation, utilities, insurance etc. cost more then you have to live in a cheaper house! It is *income inflation* that positively affects home prices, not headline inflation which has a negative effect.

This bodes much worse for housing. Since housing affordability is closely tied to income, so this will impact the long term trend negatively.

And the argument that rich businessmen (local or foreign) with suitcases of cash are buying up all the houses in OC is just absolutely ridiculous!

[kev374]

Are you of the belief this market will never recover?

Yes, in my opinion it’s highly unlikely that the market will ever recover within the next 25 years to the levels we have seen. This has been a great aberration that took the home price/income ratio to astronomical levels never seen in the history of the United States.

Facts:
– Income growth is negative due to global wage arbitrage

– Liquidity is gone, Fed just cannot keep inflating money

– Loose lending is no more and is not coming back!

– Cost of living is going up putting even more pressure on home affordability, contrary to what many think, inflation negatively impacts home prices not positively. If your groceries, oil, transporation, utilities, insurance etc. cost more then you have to live in a cheaper house! It is *income inflation* that positively affects home prices, not headline inflation which has a negative effect.

This bodes much worse for housing. Since housing affordability is closely tied to income, so this will impact the long term trend negatively.

And the argument that rich businessmen (local or foreign) with suitcases of cash are buying up all the houses in OC is just absolutely ridiculous!

[kev374]

Are you of the belief this market will never recover?

Yes, in my opinion it’s highly unlikely that the market will ever recover within the next 25 years to the levels we have seen. This has been a great aberration that took the home price/income ratio to astronomical levels never seen in the history of the United States.

Facts:
– Income growth is negative due to global wage arbitrage

– Liquidity is gone, Fed just cannot keep inflating money

– Loose lending is no more and is not coming back!

– Cost of living is going up putting even more pressure on home affordability, contrary to what many think, inflation negatively impacts home prices not positively. If your groceries, oil, transporation, utilities, insurance etc. cost more then you have to live in a cheaper house! It is *income inflation* that positively affects home prices, not headline inflation which has a negative effect.

This bodes much worse for housing. Since housing affordability is closely tied to income, so this will impact the long term trend negatively.

And the argument that rich businessmen (local or foreign) with suitcases of cash are buying up all the houses in OC is just absolutely ridiculous!

[kev374]

Are you of the belief this market will never recover?

Yes, in my opinion it’s highly unlikely that the market will ever recover within the next 25 years to the levels we have seen. This has been a great aberration that took the home price/income ratio to astronomical levels never seen in the history of the United States.

Facts:
– Income growth is negative due to global wage arbitrage

– Liquidity is gone, Fed just cannot keep inflating money

– Loose lending is no more and is not coming back!

– Cost of living is going up putting even more pressure on home affordability, contrary to what many think, inflation negatively impacts home prices not positively. If your groceries, oil, transporation, utilities, insurance etc. cost more then you have to live in a cheaper house! It is *income inflation* that positively affects home prices, not headline inflation which has a negative effect.

This bodes much worse for housing. Since housing affordability is closely tied to income, so this will impact the long term trend negatively.

And the argument that rich businessmen (local or foreign) with suitcases of cash are buying up all the houses in OC is just absolutely ridiculous!

[kev374]

Are you of the belief this market will never recover?

Yes, in my opinion it’s highly unlikely that the market will ever recover within the next 25 years to the levels we have seen. This has been a great aberration that took the home price/income ratio to astronomical levels never seen in the history of the United States.

Facts:
– Income growth is negative due to global wage arbitrage

– Liquidity is gone, Fed just cannot keep inflating money

– Loose lending is no more and is not coming back!

– Cost of living is going up putting even more pressure on home affordability, contrary to what many think, inflation negatively impacts home prices not positively. If your groceries, oil, transporation, utilities, insurance etc. cost more then you have to live in a cheaper house! It is *income inflation* that positively affects home prices, not headline inflation which has a negative effect.

This bodes much worse for housing. Since housing affordability is closely tied to income, so this will impact the long term trend negatively.

And the argument that rich businessmen (local or foreign) with suitcases of cash are buying up all the houses in OC is just absolutely ridiculous!

[HLS]

YES, you were “lucky” along with millions of others, but most people don’t see it as luck, but now an entitlement to easy street.

Just because there have been 9 cycles, doesn’t guarantee that there will be a 10th.

The psychology of people thinking that it has to happen can actually make it happen, but if that same psychology turns, it won’t happen. If psychology turns in the stock market, watch out below.

Houses are cheaper than they were 2 and 3 years ago. Mortgage rates are lower than they were 2 and 3 years ago,
actual payments are less than they were 2 and 3 years ago, SO where are the buyers ??

It’s a bargain now compared to 2 and 3 years ago, but the psychology has changed 180 degrees, and people who are smart are concerned, and those that aren’t concerned don’t understand what is happening.

Where are all the genius “investors” who went to seminars and bought books and tapes on RE investing ?
Since prices are cheaper now, the market should be booming, but it’s not.

The party is over, but some people are just arriving, thinking that they aren’t too late and there is more fun to come.

The band has packed up, the liquor bottles are empty, there is trash all over the place. There’s a mess that needs to be cleaned up.

Anybody who buys a house today is helping to clean up that mess and saving somebody else the trouble.

[HLS]

YES, you were “lucky” along with millions of others, but most people don’t see it as luck, but now an entitlement to easy street.

Just because there have been 9 cycles, doesn’t guarantee that there will be a 10th.

The psychology of people thinking that it has to happen can actually make it happen, but if that same psychology turns, it won’t happen. If psychology turns in the stock market, watch out below.

Houses are cheaper than they were 2 and 3 years ago. Mortgage rates are lower than they were 2 and 3 years ago,
actual payments are less than they were 2 and 3 years ago, SO where are the buyers ??

It’s a bargain now compared to 2 and 3 years ago, but the psychology has changed 180 degrees, and people who are smart are concerned, and those that aren’t concerned don’t understand what is happening.

Where are all the genius “investors” who went to seminars and bought books and tapes on RE investing ?
Since prices are cheaper now, the market should be booming, but it’s not.

The party is over, but some people are just arriving, thinking that they aren’t too late and there is more fun to come.

The band has packed up, the liquor bottles are empty, there is trash all over the place. There’s a mess that needs to be cleaned up.

Anybody who buys a house today is helping to clean up that mess and saving somebody else the trouble.

[HLS]

YES, you were “lucky” along with millions of others, but most people don’t see it as luck, but now an entitlement to easy street.

Just because there have been 9 cycles, doesn’t guarantee that there will be a 10th.

The psychology of people thinking that it has to happen can actually make it happen, but if that same psychology turns, it won’t happen. If psychology turns in the stock market, watch out below.

Houses are cheaper than they were 2 and 3 years ago. Mortgage rates are lower than they were 2 and 3 years ago,
actual payments are less than they were 2 and 3 years ago, SO where are the buyers ??

It’s a bargain now compared to 2 and 3 years ago, but the psychology has changed 180 degrees, and people who are smart are concerned, and those that aren’t concerned don’t understand what is happening.

Where are all the genius “investors” who went to seminars and bought books and tapes on RE investing ?
Since prices are cheaper now, the market should be booming, but it’s not.

The party is over, but some people are just arriving, thinking that they aren’t too late and there is more fun to come.

The band has packed up, the liquor bottles are empty, there is trash all over the place. There’s a mess that needs to be cleaned up.

Anybody who buys a house today is helping to clean up that mess and saving somebody else the trouble.

[HLS]

YES, you were “lucky” along with millions of others, but most people don’t see it as luck, but now an entitlement to easy street.

Just because there have been 9 cycles, doesn’t guarantee that there will be a 10th.

The psychology of people thinking that it has to happen can actually make it happen, but if that same psychology turns, it won’t happen. If psychology turns in the stock market, watch out below.

Houses are cheaper than they were 2 and 3 years ago. Mortgage rates are lower than they were 2 and 3 years ago,
actual payments are less than they were 2 and 3 years ago, SO where are the buyers ??

It’s a bargain now compared to 2 and 3 years ago, but the psychology has changed 180 degrees, and people who are smart are concerned, and those that aren’t concerned don’t understand what is happening.

Where are all the genius “investors” who went to seminars and bought books and tapes on RE investing ?
Since prices are cheaper now, the market should be booming, but it’s not.

The party is over, but some people are just arriving, thinking that they aren’t too late and there is more fun to come.

The band has packed up, the liquor bottles are empty, there is trash all over the place. There’s a mess that needs to be cleaned up.

Anybody who buys a house today is helping to clean up that mess and saving somebody else the trouble.

[Author]

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